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Browns vs. Bills Monday Night Preview

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 17th, 2008 | Comment »

Well, the last two weeks I’ve remained dead even. This past week I capitalized off the Titans, Saints, and Cardinals, but lost on the Panthers and Eagles.

At first glance, I didn’t like the spread on tonight’s game (Bills -5). I then looked at the over/under, which was set at 40. That was rather curious. My first impression was that the Browns will give up a lot of points, but will also score a lot of points, but that of course is on a dry field in good condition. The over/under clearly reflects the forecast tonight: snow.

If you remember the last time the Browns played Cleveland, the game ended 8-0. Talk about ugly. That was in blizzard-like conditions though. Tonight’s forecast is in the low 20’s with scattered snow showers and a chance of snow at 30%. The consensus seems to be that the snow won’t pick up until midnight.

I don’t think the weather will be all that bad. The Bills will be without their top DE Aaron Schobel and Browns run-stuffing DT Shaun Rodgers is probable (playing with a banged up knee). With the Browns defense being a huge liability, and Brady Quinn looking solid with an offense that, at times, can really move the football, I like the over. I am a bit concerned about the Bills offensive woes lately, as they’ve been held to under 17 points in their last three games (MIA, NE, and NYJ). Their last 4 games are 0-3-1 against the over. Lee Evans will need to step up this game for the over to hit. Beast Mode should have a big game against the 27th ranked rush defense of the Browns though.

The over is a bit risky due to the weather and cold games are traditionally low-scoring, but maybe some sloppy play will also produce some points off turnovers.

Maybe Browns +12 and over 33 might be a good 7-point teaser.

I’m leaning toward the teaser or just 2 units on the over. I haven’t decided. If you have any insight on the game, please leave me a comment.

After I talked to Brandon, he likes the Bills -5 and the under 40.

This game is just a tough one to call.

UPDATE: I’m just doing 1 unit on the Browns moneyline (+180) to stay vested in the game. The Bills offensive woes is a concern and they’re without their best defensive player. I’m not entirely confident in the Browns due to their defense being a libility and it being MNF in Buffalo, but I think their offense will stay on pace with the Bills. As far as the over/under goes, it’s a toss up and the score should hover right around 40, so I don’t think either the under or over is a good play.

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