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Panthers/Buccaneers MNF Pick

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 8th, 2008 | Comment »

After all was said and done, I came out dead even this week.  That’s OK though since the Ravens and Rutgers built up the bank roll last week.  Most of my picks were right on the money, but I took the wrong games.  My big game (the Pats) pushed, I lost on the Jets, but won on the Bears. 1-1-1, I’ll take it.  I put small bets on the Steelers, Ravens, and Vikings, so I won 2/3 there.  Let’s look at tonight’s game.


Tonight is a great NFL game for NFC South supremacy.  Both teams are 9-3.  The Panthers are a perfect 6-0 at home.  The Bucs are 3-3 on the road.  The Bucs stomped all over the Panthers in Tampa Bay earlier this season winning by a score of 27-3.  I can’t really make sense of this one.  Both teams are known for their tight defenses.  Tampa allows 20 PPG on the road while the Panthers allow 17 PPG at home.  Both offenses score an average of 23 for their respective home/away stats.  What’s alarming about the Panthers is their 33 PPG allowed in their last 3 and they’re 1-2 ATS in their last 3 (GB, ATL, DET).  Neither team has a clear edge, but the Panthers do have the home-field advantage on Monday Night.

I still don’t know what to do with this one.  I may do another one of my teasers.  With the solid defenses of each team, each team should be limited to around 17-23 points.  The over/under is 39.  You can tease this up to 46 to take the under or tease it down to 32 and take the over.  Both teams are 5-7 against the over.  You could then tease the line to Panthers +4 or Buccaneers +10.  I think all teaser combinations hit tonight.  Whether you take Panthers +4, over 32 or Bucs +10 and under 46, I think they’ll both hit.

If you have any input on the game, hit me up in the comments.  I can’t decide which way I want to go.  Right now I like the under 46, but 32 points isn’t much, and I’m sure that this one is at least a 20-13 game.  Monday Night over has been the play on Monday Night.

After final thought, I trust the Bucs’ D to keep this one close tonight.  Even if the Bucs give up 24, which is a lot for them to give up, I’ll just need 2 TDs to cover.  The Bucs D is allowing only 16.7 PPG, which is 4th in the NFL.  I like the consistency and balance of the Bucs offense.

TONIGHT’S BET: 3-unit teaser, Buccaneers +10, Over 32

Bucs D had a 4th-quarter meltdown and the Panthers ran wild in that quarter (299 rushing yards in the game).  They Bucs are supposed to be the 4th rank run defense.  Very uncharacteristic of them.  The start of the 4th quarter was 17-17.  Antonio Bryant had a huge TD grab with about 2 minutes left to put us in the money, but Jonathan Stewart had to ruin that on a pointless TD with 2:00 minutes left.  Bummer.

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