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My Final Week 15 Plays

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 13th, 2008 | Comment »

I really like the Packers -2.5 over the Jaguars this week, but they’ve been a poor team to bet on lately, but so have the Jags.  The Jags will be without their best corner and the Packers have a pretty good WR in Greg Jennings, who should explode this game (count on 100+ yards from Jennings).  I’m taking this one just because the Jaguars offense is basically non-existent.  I think this is the most one-sided game this week.  The Jags are 1-5 at home, so that home-field advantage isn’t really working for them.

The next game that I have on tap is the Titans -3 over Texans.  Brandon likes the Texans +3 and they have been playing very well the last 2 weeks and they’ll be at home. The Titans already have the division locked up, so they may slack this game, but they’re still fighting for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and Jeff Fisher knows just how important it is to lock that up and you’re facing the Texans, who have a poor run defense and give up a lot of points.  I’ll keep riding the Titans, but the -3 line does show you the confidence the bookies have in the Texans in this one.  I’ll have it on upset alert, but the Titans D will keep that high-scoring Texans offense in check.

My next play is the Patriots -6.5 over the Raiders.  The Raiders are garbage:  3-10,  1-5 at home, averaging 13.8 PPG.  I also think Randy Moss will show up big against his former team.  I always love when big-time players are playing their former team.  This one has 13/14 experts at picking the Pats, but they were all over Patriots -4.5 over the Seahawks last week and the Pats had to come from behind to escape with a 3-point win.

I then took San Diego -6 over Kansas City.  Brandon likes KC +6.  True: Kansas City has covered 5 of their last 7.  But in two of those games they were getting 14 points and in the other two, they were getting 9 points.   Come on now, they’re giving up over 400 yards of offense per game.  SD only won by 20-19 the last time they played, but I think they’ll beat up on the Chiefs this week.  They have 10 days of rest after stomping on the Raiders.   KC’s 31st ranked run defense is allowing over 180 rushing yards per game at home.  LT runs wild!  SD wins this one 31-20 in my opinion.

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