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NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on January 7th, 2009 | 11 Comments

Hey guys.  I just got back from Vegas and cashed in on the Arizona/Atlanta over, Eagles, and Ravens.  I dropped a small amount on the Colts though.  Speaking of that game, the NFL better change the overtime rules this offseason.  It’s completely bogus to determine a football game by a coin flip.  You knew whoever was getting the ball first in overtime was going to win the game.  Let’s see what’s on tap this weekend.


With two of the best defense in the league, maybe the under 34.5 is the play to make.  However, a few Ed Reed INT’s can always get the game to hit the over.  I love the Ravens this post-season.  I think they have an excellent shot to play in the Super Bowl.  The Titans are at home where they just beet Pittsburgh in convincing fashion.  This will be a tight one.  Whoever wins the turnover and sack battle wins this game and both teams are great at forcing turnovers and getting sacks.  I’m pulling for the Ravens and I think this game pushes.  Either way, it should be tight.  With the home field, I’ll have to say the Titans win by a field goal.  Titans win, 16-13.


Before seeing the spread, the Panthers over the Cardinals was the best play to make.  I would surely recommend taking the Panthers at -6.5, but 10 points is a lot to cover in a playoff game.  The Cardinals are terrible on the road, where they are 3-5.  They give up an average of 30 PPG on the road.  The Panthers, on the other hand, are a perfect 8-0 at home.  Carolina averages 29 PPG at home and gives up 13.9 PPG at home.  Also keep in mind that Anquan Bolden is listed as questionable for this game and should be a game-time decision.  The Panthers should dominate, but when you have to lay 10 point, a late Cardinals score can get them to cover. The over 48.5 also looks like a good play.  I see the Panthers winning this one by a score of 31-23.


I’m an Eagles fan and I think they have a great shot to win.  DeSean Jackson made the Sports Illustrated cover with the title “Philadelphia Is Dangerous.”  Yes they are.  The Eagles already beat the Giants in New York this season and seek to make it a second time.  Their defense is playing outstanding and Westbrook has been “The Giant Killer.”  Also keep in mind that Eli Manning sucks in the cold.  It could be just wishful thinking since the Eagles are my team, but even as I try to be unbias, taking the 4 points with the Eagles looks like a good play.  Eagles win, 24-20.


Pittsburgh won the last game against the Chargers 11-10.  Pittsburgh clearly has a defensive edge, but San Diego should keep it close.  I don’t think either spread is good to take, so you’re probably better off flipping a coin.  I say Pittsburgh wins, 23-17.

11 Responses to NFL Divisional Round Playoff Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Brandon

    Date: Jan 09, 2009 at 8:24 pm

    I honestly think San Diego wins outright. There is some serious concern about Ben’s health and his ability to perform. If Sproles continues to play such an important role in the Charger offense then San Diego becomes very tough to beat. Don’t forget revenge factor here as the Chargers believe they should have won the first meeting. On top of that, it is near impossible to beat a team twice in the NFL. At worse, this game should be close throughout, so take the points with San Diego.

    The other bet that really jumps out at me is the under 48 in the Arizona/Carolina game. I believe both teams will use their rushing attacks more than expected. Arizona will have to rely on James more as Bolden is not expected to play and even if he does he will not be his usually go to self. If Bolden doesn’t play Fitzgerald will be double-teamed on almost every play. More rushing attempts mean more time ticking off that clock and ultimately lower scoring. The only way this game hits the over is if Arizona cannot begin to stop the running game of Carolina. Carolina may run all over them so Arizona will have to come up with some defense stops like they did last week against the Falcons. Take the under.

    I was listening to ESPN Radio this morning and they mentioned a stat that stunned me, when Flacco throws more than 30 times in a game Baltimore has failed to win a single game. Therefore, I checked to see how many times teams average passing attempts against the Titans, teams average 36 passing attempts. What does that mean? Well, it means that teams are playing from behind against the Titans and need quick or multiple scores to catch-up and therefore they resort to throwing the ball more often. I know that most like Baltimore in this situation, and I have all year long, but I think the Titans will score and have the lead for most of the game, therefore Flacco will be called upon to throw more often, which will result in him throwing the ball more than 30 times and ultimately a Baltimore loss. Lay the points with the Titans.

    Good Luck to all.

  2. Bill Tsiu

    Date: Jan 11, 2009 at 5:30 pm

    Eli Manning is a choker, the whole Giants this year are chokers. They deserve a better quarterback, Eli will never be his brother. /Cool widgets at statbeast. Check it.

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