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NFL Week 3 In Review, Cowboys/Panthers Pick

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 28th, 2009 | Comment »

NFL WEEK 3 IN REVIEW:

What’s up my peeps.  The Saints, my pick of the week, cashed in for me.  Easy money in the bank, although I was a little taken back when they took a mere 10-7 lead into the half.  I also made a pretty penny on those Ravens over the Browns — that was just another easy game that was like “free money.”

I lost a minor amount on the Falcons.  I wanted to wait right before the game to see what the injury picture was holding.  I was hoping both Moss and Welker would be out, so I could jump on the Falcons, but when I heard Moss was playing, I still figured I would place a small bet on the Falcons since Wes Welker was still out.  I was playing the Wes Welker injury and thought the Pats would be flat without him, just like the Jets game, but they were able to muster enough offense to hold off the Falcons.

The Saints and Ravens has us well positioned going into Monday night.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -8.5

Tonight’s Monday Night game is the Cowboys and Panthers.  The 1-1 Cowboys look to bounce back from the tough Sunday Night loss against the Giants while the Panthers are looking for their first win of the season after losses to the Eagles and Falcons.  I think taking the points +8.5 is the way to go.  Cowboys obviously win, but when you give a good team like the Panthers 8.5 points, you take them.

Dallas’s secondary was exposed by the Giants, who appeared to pass at will over the Cowboys.  The Giants’ Steve Smith is much like the Panthers’ Steve Smith and was able to get open at will last week.  I see Steve Smith having a big day today.  Converting first downs, stretching the field, and all the great things he does for the Panthers.  The Steve Smith matchup should help DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart get going.  Also keep in mind that safety Michael Hamlin is out this week.

Dallas has the ability to dominate this game though, don’t get me wrong.  Although Marion Barber is out, the Cowboys have two serviceable backs.  Tony Romo may come back like the Pro Bowl quarterback that he is capable of being or he may struggle again like he did last week.  Plus, you never know when Jake Delhomme will have a 4 INT game.

In a game like this, I think you’re better off taking the points.  The Cowboys -8.5 are far from a lock, but neither are the Panthers at +8.5.  All the Panthers need is about 17-20 points in order to cover.  With their running game and Steve Smith, they can make that happen.  The Cowboys have something like 1 sack this season.  Their defense isn’t what it used to be and they’re struggling to get pressure on the QB.  That’s what makes me think that Delhomme won’t play that bad.

The over/under, which is at 48 is too close to call.  However, adding the points to the Panthers and taking the over 41 seems like a great teaser to take.

Take the points.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Panthers 24

Free Pick: Panthers +8.5 (Confidence: 3/5), 7-point Teaser Panthers +15.5, Over 41 (Confidence: 4/5)



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