Florida vs. LSU Prediction, Pick Against the Spread

FLORIDA GATORS (4-0) -9 @ LSU TIGERS (5-0)

First order of business is checking the status of Tim Tebow.  As your probably already know, Tebow suffered a concussion last week and is questionable for the game meaning that there’s about a 50/50 shot that he plays.  The latest word on Tebow is that he will play IF he is medically cleared by passing a test and this will be a game-time decision.  I would not wager of this game until Tebow’s status is 100% certain.  If he plays, I would lean towards taking the Gators at -9, but if he’s out, taking LSU +9 is likely the play to make.  Let’s look at the tale of the tape.

Both teams are unbeaten this season.  Florida is averaging 45.5 PPG and allowing 7.2 PPG.  LSU is averaging 27.0 PPG and allowing 14.8 PPG.  Florida won the last contest between these two teams last November by a score of 51-20.  Florida’s most impressive wins this season are their week 1 win over Oklahoma 24-14 and their win last week on the road over Kentucky, 41-7.  LSU has only played 1 legitimate team and 4 weaker teams and their sole “impressive” win was a 20-13 win on the road against Georgia.  The week before that, LSU barely beat Mississipp State on the road, escaping with a 30-26 win.

Not only does Florida have Tebow questionable, but their injury list is almost a mile long (see full list here).  With several offensive linemen, linebackers, and wide receivers out for Florida, that raises a lot of questions on whether they can cover the 9 points on the road.

Florida is an impressive 11-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in their last 12 road games, while LSU is just 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 homes games.  11/18 “experts” at Covers.com are taking LSU to cover against the spread and 60% of the consensus vote is on LSU.

For me, this is not a great game to bet on.  There are a lot of question marks surrounding the game.  Will Tebow play and how effective can he be just one week after suffering a concussion?  How will all of Florida’s injuries affect them?  If you look at the numbers from these teams this season, Florida is clearly the stronger team.  However, you’re getting 9 points to take a high-quality team playing at home at night against a Florida team that is banged up and a QB coming off a concussion.  Brandon likes the home dogs and I think that is the way to go.

Tebow is a gamer and I expect him to play, but the way I would play this game is to keep checking on his status.  If you get word that he is not medically cleared to play tonight, jump all over the Tigers +9.  You may even be able to find the spread at +10 if you’re lucky.  However, if Tebow plays, I would pass on this game and just enjoy a tremendous Saturday Night Football game without any money on the line.

Prediction: Florida 27 – LSU 20

Free Pick: LSU +9 (If Tebow is out, Confidence: 4/5.  If Tebow plays, Confidence: 1/5)