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NFL Week 10 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 10th, 2009 | 129 Comments

Vegas Martin’s top 6 NFL plays from week 9 went 4-2 against the spread this past weekend, so it’s good that we ended up on the winning side yet again.  That is now 3-straight winning weeks and our last 4/5 weeks have been positive. Unfortunately, the top 2 plays didn’t pan out, but we made up all that ground and then some when we found 2 winners at the 4:00 time slot and got another easy win on Monday night with the Steelers over the Broncos pick.

I hope anyone who took a hit on the Packers or Ravens picks boldly followed me into the 4:00 games and the Monday Night game to take back whatever was ours for the taking. New rule, never bet against a home underdog off the bye week. I have been preaching about that all season long, but failed to take my own advice. I felt the Packers over the Bucs and Ravens over the Bengals were both strong plays despite that significant factor to their disadvantage, but we learned the hard way and will not make that mistake again.

Don’t forget to check out Brandon’s week 11 college picks and to sign up for our Yahoo pick ’em league.

On to the week 10 NFL action to find out where we can make the easy money betting against the spread.

CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -3

We start getting into Thursday Night football, so this is the first matchup of the week.  I don’t really like it.  Both teams have been hard to figure out this season.  Both teams were hugely disappointing last week and I advised our readers to pass on the Bears/Cardinals and 49ers/Titans game for exactly those reasons.  I thought I was onto something with the Cardinals solid play on the road this season, but I had the Panthers loss fresh in my head, so I had to pass on that game last week.  72% of the money is on the 49ers to cover in this one.

I had an inkling that the Titans would defeat the 49ers last week, which is why I put that game in the “no action” category, but I wasn’t about to bet on the 1-6 Titans on the road.  These teams match up pretty evenly on paper, but the home/away statistics give the 49ers the edge.  The Bears on the road score just 16 PPG and allow 26.5 PPG.  At home, the 49ers score 23.8 PPG and allow 22.2 PPG.  The most significant injury to the 49ers is CB Nate Clements.  Without having a lockdown corner who can cover speedsters Devin Hester and Johnny Knox is a huge blow to the 49ers.  A potential huge loss for the Bears is DT Tommy Harris, who is likely facing a suspension for his punch to a Cardinals offensive lineman.  I think I threw out enough information out there for you to make your own decision on this game, but I simply don’t like it as I do not see either team being a strong play.  I think it’s a tight game and I think Cutler has a great chance to expose the 49ers secondary, but the 49ers also have a chance to expose the Bears run defense who will be without Tommy Harris.  I’m leaning towards taking the points in this one.

Prediction: Bears 23 – 49ers 20

Free Pick: Bears +3 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ NEW YORK JETS -6.5

The Jags couldn’t even cover 6.5 at home over the Chiefs.  Although they were in the money the entire game until a late score cost them the cover.  The Jaguars have been pretty dismal all season long and their pass defense is what has hurt them the most.  I’m expecting Mark Sanchez to rebound after some recent poor performances now that he’s had 14 days to go over his mistakes and prepare for a sub-par pass defense.  The key factor in this pick is the Jets are at home off the bye week.  We saw how home teams off the bye week faired last week, so I think the Jets cover in this one, although I believe it will be too close with the spread to make it a strong play.  They may cover by a mere half point, so I don’t love the game.

Prediction: Jets 24 – Jaguars 17

Free Pick: Jets -6.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

BUFFALO BILLS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

The Titans are 2-0 with Vince Young, but unfortunately for their team, the move was made a few games too late.  With the NFL’s leading rusher against the league’s worst run defense, I think this is a great game to take.  The Bills surrender an average of 173.6 rushing yards per game and their offense has been pretty much non-existent as they average just 15.6 PPG.  The Titans averaging 32 PPG in their last two games.  I’m counting on Chris Johnson to go nuts this game and I don’t think the Bills have the offense to keep up.  Injuries to note: WR Justin Gage is out, WR Terrell Owens is questionable.

Prediction: Titans 24 – Bills 16

Free Pick: Titans -6.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -16.5

I played the Vikings -10 over the Lions earlier in the season and took down a 27-13 victory.  The Vikings are another team that is at home off the bye week. Despite jumping out to a 17-3 lead, the Lions were defeated 32-20 last week against the Seahawks.   With the Lions surrendering 29.6 PPG and Stafford already throwing 12 INTs on the season, I think the Vikings still cover the high spread, but the spread is just too high for me to take it.  If the Lions manage to score just 2 TDs, they’ll likely end up in the money.  I love betting against the Lions, but the spread is just too high in this one for me to bite.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Lions 13

Free Pick: No Action

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -7

With both teams at 6-2, 1st place in the AFC North is on the line.  The Bengals are without a doubt, this year’s biggest surprise.  For a team to get 2 more wins halfway through the season than they got in the entire 2008 season is remarkable.  If you recall from earlier in the season, the Bengals got the best of the Steelers the last time they played in Cincy.  The Steelers had a 20-9 lead with 9 minutes left to play, but the Bengals scored 2 TDs to win the game 23-30.

Chad Ochocinco is back to his usual tactics, sending the Steelers players Heinz mustard since they won’t be able to KETCH-UP.  Poor idea on his part since the last thing the Bengals need is for the Steelers to get more motivation to want to stomp the Bengals after being defeated by them earlier in the season.

The Steelers are rolling and I think they win this one, but I don’t like them very much with the spread.  The Steelers just aren’t very good against the spread this year.  They are 3-5 ATS compared to the Bengals 5-3 record ATS.  With a pretty even matchup on paper, I think you’re better served taking the 7 points on a 6-2 team that is just as hot as the Steelers.  I’m anticipating a Steelers win by 3-6 points.

Prediction: Steelers 23 – Bengals 17

Free Pick: Benglas +7 (Confidence: 2/5) (W)

DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

The Redskins are another team that I love betting against.  With their team morale at a new all-time low, I think this is a good spot to bet against them.  They used to have a solid defense, but once the D saw that they don’t have the offense to help them out, they’ve pretty much given up on the season.  Not only did the Redskins lose Chris Cooley, but they also lost Clinton Portis, and their back RB Betts is questionable with an ankle injury.  With those injuries against a very solid Broncos defense, the Redskins will struggle to find points.  The Broncos are coming off two straight losses by wide margins.  My confidence has wained in them.  I also hate betting on west coast teams playing east coat teams at 1:00 since history shows that the east coast home team has a significant advantage.  I like the Broncos here due to their strong defense against a weak offense, but with the two straight losses making the Broncos look overrated has my confidence in them shaky at best.

Prediction: Broncos 23 – Redskins 13

Free Pick: Broncos -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -13.5 @ ST. LOUS RAMS

I wonder what our reader TGIS has to say about this one.  He said he’ll take any opportunity to take advantage of high spreads against the Saints in order to take the points.  This is the Rams though.  They give up an average of 28 PPG and only score 9 PPG.  I love this spread since the Rams will likely be held to under 10 points, which means a mere 24 points will get the Saints in the money.  You can basically count on the Saints to put up points every time that they touch the ball.

I already have to break my “home team off the bye week rule,” which is what the Rams are, but this is the Saints vs. the Rams!  Last week with the Packers and Ravens pick, at least the Packers have a suspect defense and the Bengals are a legitimate team.  I think this is an exception to the rule.  The league’s best offense against the league’s worst defense and non-existent offense.  How can you say no to that?  The Rams lost to the Colts 42-6 and I think you see similar results in this one.  I don’t see how you can pass on this one, but if you’re a big believer in the “don’t bet against a home dog off the bye week” rule, then this one is not for you.

Prediction: Saints 38 – Rams 10

Free Pick: Saints -13.5 (Confidence: 4/5) (L)

ATLANTA FALCONS -1.5 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

I’ve been pretty high on the Falcons all season long.  The Panthers have been looking better after their upset win over the Cardinals, but they couldn’t top the Saints after jumping to an early lead.  92% of the public likes the Falcons and 4/5 experts are Covers.com like them too.  Atlanta defeated the Panthers earlier in the year 28-20 and I think you see similar results in this one.  DeAngelo Williams is also questionable for the game.

Prediction: Falcons 26 – Panthers 20

Free Pick: Falcons -1.5 (Confidence: 3/5) (L)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS -9.5

The Bucs got their first win of the season last week against the Packers.  The Dolphins have been really impressing me.  They were able to hang in with their against the Patriots on the road and have been even more impressive at home, almost beating the Saints and Colts.  Miami is averaging 31.5 PPG at home.  I couldn’t believe that stat when I looked it up.  With the Bucs 30th ranked defense, the Dolphins should easily dominate this game, but the spread seems high to me.  I like the Dolphins to cover, but the spread is too high to make it a strong play.

Prediction: Dolphins 27 – Buccaneers 17

Free Pick: Dolphins -9.5 (Confidence: 2/5) (L)

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS -1.5

At least one of these teams will get a win.  Both teams are horrendous, but I would go with the Raiders, who will be at home off the bye week.

Prediction: Raiders 12 – Chiefs 5

Free Pick: Raiders -1.5 (Confidence: 0.5/5) (L)

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -9

The Cardinals have been a very tough team to figure out.  Unbelievable on the road, horrendous at home, which is the opposite of how they’ve played home vs. away in past years.  Kurt Warner is capable of throwing 5 TDs or 5 INTs any week.  Arizona defeated the Seahawks 27-3 earlier this season and that was on the road.  Arizona also covered the spread both times they faced the Seahawks last year.  The trend is your friend.  Arizona is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 against the Seahawks.  I don’t see why things should be different in this one.  One injury to note: WR Anquan Boldin is questionable.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 – Seahawks 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -9 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (W)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2.5

The Eagles are my team as you are well aware.  This is a make or break game for both teams.  With both teams 5-3 and 1 game out of first place in their division, this game has tremendous playoff implications.  Neither team can afford their 4th loss of the season this early in the season, but 1 team will get it.  The Eagles are notorious for playing like crap when they travel on the west coast and I am not to thrilled that they’ll have to face a tough Chargers team on the road this week.  As an Eagles fan, I just have to leave it at that and hope for a win.

Free Pick: No Action

DALLAS COWBOYS -3 @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Cowboys are playing tremendous football right now.  After starting the season 2-2, they’ve rattled off 4 straight wins.  The Packers have been a huge disappointment lately.  Their defense has been getting exposed and I think they have a tough time stopping the Cowboys this week.  Tony Romo has been playing at a high level and with their balanced offense, I don’t see how the Packers will stop them on 3rd down since Witten has had no problems picking up those 3rd and shorts.  The Packers should be able to hang in there with Aaron Rodgers and that impressive Packers passing game, but I think the Cowboys outduel them.  The Packers have a ton of issues on the offensive line, so look for the Cowboys to get a ton of sacks, which will get them more time with the football.  The Packers gave up 6 sacks to the Bucs last week and they average less than 1.5 sacks a game.  Packers DE Aaron Kampman will be out which is a huge blow for them.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 – Packers 20

Free Pick: Cowboys -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (L)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3

I cannot wait for this Sunday Night game.  I’ve been debating whether the Colts or the Patriots will be the one to come out of the AFC.  Both offenses have been outstanding, but the Colts offense has been slowing down lately.  The Colts have the better defense though.  This all comes down to Brady vs. Manning though, and Brady usually gets the best of Manning.  Tom Brady is 5-2 in the regular season and 2-1 in the post-season against Manning.  With Bob Sanders out, Brady must be smiling.  If the Patriots are getting 3 points, I’ll take them.  I think the Patriots win outright, but if they lose, it is likely by 3.  With the Patriots +3 at (-115), I think you see this spread drop to +2.5 by game time.

Prediction: Patriots 27 – Colts 24

Free Pick: Patriots +3 (Confidence: 3/5) (W)

BALTIMORE RAVENS -10.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns are playing on Monday Night, are you f#@%ing kidding me?  The Browns are another home underdog off the bye week, but here’s another game where it seems too sweet to pass up on.  The Browns average 9.8 PPG.  They scored 6 points against the Bears and 3 points against the Packers.  How is this team going to score more than 10 points against the Ravens?  Maybe being at home on Monday Night will help them, but I just don’t see it happening.  The Browns rank at the bottom of the league in nearly every category.  The Ravens are still averaging 25.8 PPG and the Browns give up 26 PPG.  Provided the Ravens score 24 points, which should be no problem against the Browns, the Ravens end up in the money.

Prediction: Ravens 28 – Browns 10

Free Pick: Ravens -10.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5) (W)

TOP 8 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

I think you have 8 great spreads to choose from this week.  I wanted to note the home teams off the bye week that I picked against.  I know I said that I will no longer bet against home teams off the bye week, but I don’t see how the Rams or the Browns will benefit from the bye week against the strong teams like the Saints and Ravens.  At least I have two excuses for last week.  First, we can finally say it now, but the Bengals are legit.  Second, the Packers have defensive woes and had a blocked punt returned for a TD that hurt them.

Don’t take the rankings too seriously, but that is how I would ranked them.  I think all games a pretty even.  Pick the spreads that you think are the best.

Key game notes are asterisks because that’s how I roll with key information.

1.) Saints -13.5 over RAMS (* Rams are a home team off bye week) (L)

2.) TITANS -6.5 over Bills (* Terrell Owens was listed as questionable, but will play) (W)

3.) Cowboys -3 over PACKERS (* Moved up from #6 to #3 based on DE Kampman being out and Packers pass protection struggles) (L)

4.) Broncos -3.5 over REDSKINS (* Portis and Cooley are out; Backup RB Betts was listed questionable, but will play and will share carries with RB Carolina) (L)

5.) Patriots +3 over COLTS (W)

6.) Ravens -10.5 over BROWNS (* Browns are a home team off bye week; Started off at #3, dropped to #6 due to the high spread) (W)

7.) Falcons -1.5 over PANTHERS (* DeAngelo Williams was listed as questionable, but will play) (L)

8.) JETS -6.5 over Jaguars (L)



129 Responses to NFL Week 10 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Jmack

    Date: Nov 10, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    This week looks similar to a couple weeks ago, my eyes lit up. Hopefully we see nothing as bad as that GB game last week. I also like the Broncos -4.5 against washington. how about you?

  2. vemms

    Date: Nov 11, 2009 at 12:01 pm

    Looks like a winner to me. i also like Atlanta at Carolina.

  3. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 11, 2009 at 1:24 pm

    I posted my prediction and pick for the Denver/Washington game. I give the Broncos -3.5 a 3/5 rating. I like the strong defense vs. weak offense match up, but don’t like the fact that it’s a west coast team playing on the east coast at 1:00.

  4. anonymous

    Date: Nov 12, 2009 at 12:09 pm

    Where is:

    Cincinnati 6-2 (+7)
    @ Pittsburgh 6-2

    ?

  5. NFL Handicapper

    Date: Nov 12, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    ———————————

    (*) My Week-10 NFL Picks:

    ———————————

    * Chicago 4-4 (+3)
    San Francisco 3-5

    * Atlanta 5-3
    Carolina 3-5 (+1)

    Buffalo 3-5 (+6.5)
    * Tennessee 2-6

    * Cincinnati 6-2 (+7)
    Pittsburgh 6-2

    * Dallas 6-2
    Green Bay 4-4 (+3)

    * Denver 6-2
    Washington 2-6 (+3.5)

    Detroit 1-7 (+16.5)
    * Minnesota 7-1

    * Jacksonville 4-4 (+7)
    NY Jets 4-4

    * Kansas City 1-7 (+1)
    Oakland 2-6

    * New England 6-2 (+3)
    Indianapolis 8-0

    * New Orleans 8-0
    St. Louis 1-7 (+13.5)

    Philadelphia 5-3 (+1)
    * San Diego 5-3

    Seattle 3-5 (+9)
    * Arizona 5-3

    Tampa Bay 1-7 (+10)
    * Miami 3-5

    * Baltimore 4-4
    Cleveland 1-7 (+10.5)

    ———————————

  6. The NFL Predictor

    Date: Nov 12, 2009 at 8:03 pm

    I think that the Eagles are going to beat the chargers, no doubt.

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 12, 2009 at 10:19 pm

    Anonymous, when I wrote the article, the spread wasn’t released, but I wrote up my pick for this game. I think the Steelers win, but I like Cincy with the +7. If you’re giving a 6-2 7 points, I’ll take them. Plus, the Steelers haven’t been very good against the spread.

    NFL Predictor, thanks for the confidence in the Eagles. I sure hope they win too.

  8. Jmack

    Date: Nov 13, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    will the injury to justin gage hurt the titans chances to cover this week?

  9. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 13, 2009 at 2:22 pm

    I’m not too worried about the injury to Gage. As long as Chris Johnson is playing, the Titans are good to go. They have Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Bo Scaife to work with in the passing game, so no worries there.

  10. CHEDDERBOB

    Date: Nov 13, 2009 at 8:30 pm

    ATS NYJ-7 TEN-6.5 MIN-16.5 CIN+7 DEN-3.5 NWO-13.5 CAR+1 TB+10 KC+1 SEA+9 DAL-3 NE+3 BAL-10.5

  11. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 13, 2009 at 10:40 pm

    Thanks for your picks Chedderbob, did you sign up for our pick ’em league?

    I also wanted to announce that I added key injury updates affecting any picks that I’ve made.

  12. Dan

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 12:56 am

    Does anyone know the status of DeAngelo Williams? I know many people are waiting on his status before picking this game…..(including me). Should Atlanta cover either way?

  13. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 12:58 am

    It’s funny you should mention that since I asterisk’ed the injury in the top 7 NFL spreads section. He’s listed as questionable, which means he has a 50/50 shot at playing and is likely a game-time decision.

  14. B

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 5:05 pm

    how do these picks sound for a parlay?
    Kansas City +2
    Arizona -8.5
    San Diego -2
    Dallas -3

  15. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 5:28 pm

    I’m not crazy about KC, Arizona, and SD.

    I would go with Saints -13.5, Dallas -3, Falcons -1.5, and Titans -6.5 (or Broncos -3.5 or Ravens -10.5).

  16. B

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 5:40 pm

    even though KC now has chris chambers, which would take a load off dwayne bowe, who has been double covered?
    & im thinking that arizona has momentum from last weeks game against chicago,which are way better than seattle

    what do you think about the over & under on any of the 4:00 games?

  17. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 5:48 pm

    You do make a good point about KC. I picked the Raiders solely due to them being home off the bye week, but KC still blows, so I don’t have much confidence in them.

    I think Arizona covers, but just think the number is too high. It should be close with the spread.

    I’m don’t usually do much with over/unders, but I like the Eagles/Chargers under 47. I expect this one to play out like the SD/NY game from last week. Eagles offense struggled against Dallas, they’re usually flat on the west coast, but the defense shows up and hopefully holds SD in check. I think you can expect a 24-20 game in that one.

  18. god

    Date: Nov 14, 2009 at 8:55 pm

    you guys know any sites that payout faster than a week?

  19. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 15, 2009 at 11:47 am

    Sorry, can’t help you god.

    Dan, I just checked out DeAngelo Williams’ status and he WILL play. I still like the Falcons, but that would be huge if DeAngelo was out.

  20. b

    Date: Nov 15, 2009 at 7:19 pm

    Dallas sucks

  21. Dan

    Date: Nov 15, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    Well…….I got crushed today, like most people who made educated bets I’m guessing. Lets just hope my Ravens can show up tomorrow night and destroy the Browns so we can get some satisfaction out of the week. (Besides the Titans cover)

  22. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 15, 2009 at 10:25 pm

    Anyone who was a player got crushed today. It was one of the weeks for the books. The only play that I could say was stupid is Jets -6.5, but I didn’t play that game, and it was ranked #8 on my board.

    We ended up on the plus side for 3 straight weeks, so we had to gives some of it back. Think of it as a correction in the stock market, it may dip temporarily, but it ends up moving higher.

    I’m liking the way NE came out and hopefully that will give us some momentum going into tomorrow night.

  23. Deez Nuts

    Date: Nov 16, 2009 at 1:59 am

    Went 10-3 this week. Won some big bucks too! This website’s great!

  24. god

    Date: Nov 16, 2009 at 11:30 am

    impossible

  25. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 16, 2009 at 10:17 pm

    True story god, Deez Nutz was one of the 2 out of 20 teams that finished above .500 in the pick ’em league.

  26. allen

    Date: Nov 16, 2009 at 11:47 pm

    omg…. i lost every game this week except the titans … F Me

  27. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 17, 2009 at 12:04 am

    You didn’t go with the Patriots +3 or Ravens -10.5? C’mon buddy. This was the back-to-back rebound that you needed.

  28. Tambo

    Date: Nov 17, 2009 at 11:46 am

    Hey Vegas Martin, Ive been reffering to this site for the past few weeks to make my picks but im playin Proline/Pointspread so Ive been gettin killed with all these upsets haha, Ive been trying to get 5 sure picks, and I was hopin you could help me out next week. I keep gettin screwed over by our top picks so I dont even know what to do anymore cuz i need to get the whole ticket right to win..

  29. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 17, 2009 at 11:54 am

    Ahhh a Canadian. I’ve heard about the Proline. You’re not going to hit many 5-team parlays, especially not in the NFL. We did have our top 6 picks go 6-0 one week a few weeks back and 1 of our readers actually did parlay all 6 teams to win a few grand. However, the chances of that repeating are very slim. The odds to win a 5-team parlay are 25-to-1, so for every 25 parlays that you play, you’re supposed to win only once. It requires a tremendous amount of luck to hit a 5-teamer. We do our best to find winners on the site. We found 2 back-to-back winners in the Sunday and Monday night games and I’ll continue to do my best to give you quality advice so you can make quality picks, but you have to understand that the odds are stacked against you on those Proline tickets. Good luck.

  30. Tambo

    Date: Nov 17, 2009 at 10:51 pm

    Haha ok, thank you, I do appreciate the advice and your insight on the games. Its just seems so easy when our (yours and my my) top picks seem like for sure winners.. I actually did win a 5 game parlay back in week 7. However, these upsets the past few weeks are hurting me. Makes it almost impssible for me to win because its unpredictable right now I and I have to get all picks in my parlay correct.

  31. allen

    Date: Nov 18, 2009 at 2:18 am

    oh update…. i posted that sob story before i realized i hit with the ravens and the pats too… sorrry…. but still… bad week

  32. anonymous

    Date: Nov 18, 2009 at 10:59 am

    Put up your picks. Let’s see if you can rebound from your (33%) 5-10 Week-10.

    Good luck this week.

  33. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 18, 2009 at 11:19 am

    Picks will be up by the end of the day. We will rebound. Keep in mind our top 8 picks were 3-5 and the Denver loss was solely due to an injury, which you cannot forecast. That would have resulted in a .500 week.

    Just take a look at the past 3 weeks from me. Top Picks: 4-1, 4-2, and 6-1 respectively. 14-4 (77.77%). How about that kind of record?

  34. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 18, 2009 at 7:37 pm

    The reason I take so long to post my picks…is the same reason I went 5-10 last week.

    I’m afraid to make difficult decisions, so I wait to see what real “Handicappers” do, then, instead of following their LEAD, I like to pretend that I’m smarter than they are, and I begin tweaking their picks so as “all of you readers” will think I know how to pick ‘him.

    I’m like Michael Jackson…I don’t know when to stop and leave well-enough alone!

    When I only get 33% correct, I feel the need to “Spin-it” (like a Monday Morning Quarterback) just to convince my ego…because I sure as hell cannot mislead YOU readers.

    So, there it is… MY CONFESSION.

  35. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 18, 2009 at 8:18 pm

    Hater in the house. Last week was a tough week and almost everyone, professional handicapper or not, did poorly last week. In fact, only 2 out of 20 people in our pick ’em league were above .500 following the 4:00 games.

    I am not a professional handicapper, nor do I pretend to me. I just enjoy writing about the NFL games and like to provide a weekly analysis on each game to help people make their decisions.

    Picks are posted by Tuesday or Wednesday, so I don’t know what you’re talking about with looking at handicappers and tweaking picks. I don’t look up other handicappers, but I do like to see what the “experts” at Covers.com are up to, and often talk about about it in my picks to give other people an idea of the particular strength of a specific game. For instance, I’ll mention that 8/9 experts are picking this team so people know that’s who the handicappers heavily favor and that’s very useful information.

    I don’t know what you mean by “spinning games.” My Ravens and Patriots picks were posted 5 days before those games kicked off. Nor do I mislead anyone. I provide data, stats, records against the spread, injuries, etc. in order to compile information from several sources, so it gives people a quick resource to look at to pick games.

    I’ll again reiterate that I have a 14-4 record against the spread for my top picks in the past 3 weeks, so even in a 3-5 week (and my personal plays form last week were 3-3), that’s still a 17-9 (65.38%) record, and I’ll take that type of percentage any season.

    This is a free resource and you’re free to ignore it if you choose to.

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