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Bottom Line: The NFL is Crazy

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 22nd, 2009 | 277 Comments

I’ll try to be direct here. It was another bad week. Our top 5 picks went 2-3 and the 3 other plays in the “picks to consider” category went 1-2. Before people decide to start sending hateful comments on how we “suck”, I just wanted to make a few points. Sometimes the NFL gets downright silly and simply unpredictable.

First point: I was 1 point away from having a winning record for the top 5 picks. The Cardinals were up 21-3 at the half. Now if you took the first-half line, you were in great shape. I do not know how they managed to put up 0 points in the 2nd half, but they did, and they won the game 21-13. With the spread set at -9, they didn’t cover by a single point. Now if I would have came out last week and said take the Rams +9, I would have been called a fool.

Second point: I was 1/2 of a point away from having a winning record for the picks in the “spreads to consider” category. The Packers had a 23-3 lead as well, but let the 49ers get a few scores and won by the score of 30-24. With the spread at 6.5, they lost by a half point. Now if I said take the 49ers +6.5 after the they scored 10 points after producing 5 turnovers from the week before, I would have been called a fool and would be laughed at.

Third point: The Steelers pick didn’t work out because of bullshit. They gave up a kickoff return for a TD on the first play of the game, which basically makes the spread Steelers -17 from the get go. Roethlisberger then throws an interception in the endzone that’s returned 97 yards and sets up a Kansas City field goal. That was a 10-point swing. In other words, not only did he fail to score the 7 points that he should of, but he handed over 3 more points the Chiefs. Take that play away and the kickoff return for a TD and that is 17 points that would be in favor of the Steelers, which would have given them the win and the cover.  19/20 people in our pick ’em league picked the Steelers.

Fourth point: I moved the Chargers over the Broncos pick up to #2 after it was announced the QB Orton was not starting. If you would have gotten word of that, hopefully you took down that game for an easy win.

Fifth point: Out of the 20 teams in our pick em league, only 5 had were over .500. Just 25% of our pick ’em league was above .500. Again, proof that picking NFL games against the spread is no easy task. Picking the right games requires some skill, but you need a tremendous amount of luck. That’s all it is afterall, LUCK! That’s the only way those games that win or lose by a half point or a single point end up going your way.

Sixth point: Pay attention to the confidence ratings. Most of the losers in sum from this week were from games that were given a mere 2/5 rating.

Seventh point: It’s easy to be a critic after the fact and play “Monday morning quarterback”, having the benefit of knowing the scores. When I posted my picks, almost all of you were in agreement with my top 5.

Eighth point: The 7-2 Bengals beat the likes of the Steelers, Ravens, Bears, and Packers, yet lose to the 2-7 Raiders? How many of you called that one? Only 3/20 picked the Raiders +9.5 in our pick em league to be exact.  Goes to show that predicting the NFL ain’t easy.

Ninth point: If you took the Bengals, Steelers, and Cardinals first-half lines, you would have went 3-0. The second half of those games is where those games were lost. That shows that we were on the ball with those picks, but they were just met with some misfortune.



277 Responses to Bottom Line: The NFL is Crazy:

  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Nov 23, 2009 at 12:39 am

    So, in closing, please ignore my first (9) points, because the truth is… that my “Tenth point” sums-it-up.

    My “Tenth point” is:

    When I was a kid, I would give “Excuses,” and now that I am an adult, I do the same thing…but call them “Justifications” and “Points.”

    It’s always been difficult for me to admit when I am wrong. I can not help but to try to explain-it-away. This is why I am single :-(

    Thanks everyone…and to all…a good night.

  2. Jason

    Date: Nov 23, 2009 at 7:58 am

    Out of curiosity, is this your full time job? Or do you just have a lot of free time. Its not a cut at you or your picks, I was just wondering. I was thinking about starting my own site, but it would seem that the time it takes to keep things updated and interesting for readers is a full time gig. I am in a pool that has you pick every NFL game each week ATS. In the last 3 years, my own record is better than most ive seen on any website. Not tooting my own horn here, but I was hoping to actually make a profit other than my pool. Oh, I gave up betting on individual games a couple of years ago when I realized how unpredictable the NFL really is.

  3. Moose

    Date: Nov 24, 2009 at 1:03 am

    Srry for Messing up your 19/20, point #3 I was the one Dude who got lucky picking the Chiefs in the pick em league. I just really hate the Steelers.

  4. mike

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    I was looking at your picks and I think most hit in the 1st half which I was wondering why u don’t ever do lines for that?

    I only ask because I see u do them for the college bets

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    Your household has almost certainly been inquiring to escape residence to get a getaway. This can be accomplished even when you are in the tightest finances. Outdoor camping could be the reply to your issues. Under, you will find some pointers that will make your outdoor camping practical experience as satisfying as possible. When packaging for your camping outdoors journey, will not forget seating along with a radio station. One of the better elements of camping is sitting down round the campfire. You could potentially take a seat on an old log, but why trouble when you are able load up recliners and be cozy. The radio station is perfect for enjoyment resting throughout the fireplace. An even better thought is always to take your guitar for a sing alongside. You happen to be going camping outdoors, so assume which you will all be acquiring dirty. When you are prepared for that prior to going, it would cause a lot less tension when it takes place. Enjoy staying in the forest and enable yourself to enable loosened and become messy. Stuff will likely be standard once again when you are residence. If you load increase your camp out website to visit home, keep a number of logs and some kindling for the next outdoor camping group of people that comes along. In case you have at any time arrived at your blog after dark, you are aware how tough it could be to locate firewood! It’s a really good shell out-it-forward motion that may almost certainly assist more than you can think of. With camping outdoors, comes the campfire. Make certain your campfire is at a wide open area and considerably enough away from remember to brush or bushes therefore you don’t operate the risk of a stray spark finding them on flame. Surrounds the blaze with rocks to maintain it covered. Most of all, never ever abandon any campfire alone. If you need to abandon for any reason, ensure the campfire is extinguished fully. To end, you ought to keep the guidance and tips within thoughts when you are out and about in your camping journey. Nobody wants to come home coming from a journey on account of getting irritated mainly because they were actually unaware of whatever they necessary to know upfront. Have a great time and have fun!

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    Date: Sep 16, 2020 at 9:19 pm

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  277. Wilbert Bogdanovich

    Date: Sep 17, 2020 at 3:07 am

    The excitement of truth-based applications which are highlighted outside from the factors makes camping outdoors a popular pastime. If you are one of those men and women, and you also want a journey outdoors to keep in mind, please read on and discover a few of the right activities. Arrange your spot at the camping area at the earliest opportunity. Especially in the summer time, most people are thinking about camping out because of their family members. If one makes your reservation in the winter, you are much more likely for the best level probable. All those cost savings can translate into further family enjoyable throughout your holiday. Normal water is essential when camping. When camping at the camping site, there should be enough availability of h2o available, but around the pathway, you should bring some with you. If you are planning lengthy ranges, you need to probably bring iodine tablets to clean water you find prior to ingesting. Take care, dysentery may be lethal. Discover your brand-new equipment before going outdoor camping. The practice does truly help. No one wants to get to the camping site, only to find that they can don’t know how to use anything or set up their particular tent. Practice with your new products prior to deciding to actually set up foot on the camping area. Before leaving on your vacation, use your backyard to assist you to work out the kinks inside your camping outdoors equipment. Build your tent to actually know (or keep in mind!) the way to input it up. This may also enable you to find out if something needs to be patched up. It is going to allow it to be much easier for you once you get on the campsite. As you now possess the standard info for outdoor camping, start planning your next camping out journey! Consider what you’ve figured out in this article to coronary heart, and you’ll be an authority camper very quickly. You should have a terrific time, whether you camp out in close proximity to or significantly.

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