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New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 30th, 2009 | Comment »

The Sunday-Monday Night streak has been extended to 5-0 thanks to the Ravens pulling it out in overtime and cashing in our 7-point teaser of Ravens -0.5, over 28.5. You can never go wrong betting against a rookie in his first start and that was the difference in this one as DE Paul Kruger picked off the rookie by dropping back into coverage while Ray Lewis blitzed, getting the pick, and setting up the field goal. Thank you to those who bought me a beer for taking down my NFL play of the week, my teaser of Chargers -6.5 and Vikings -3.5. When I see Paul Kruger or Ray Rice, I’ll be sure to offer them a cold one for last night’s big win.


Tonight is the GAME OF THE YEAR — not as in this pick is a lock, but as in the best game to watch in the last 3 years, maybe since the 2006 Rose Bowl if I might say so (see and vote on our new poll). Maybe this is the second game of the year after we were treated to the Colts and Patriots just not too long ago.  This is expected to be the most wagered game of the year.

My previous stance on this game when the spread was released was to tease it by adding 7 points to the Patriots +3 that they got to start to make it Patriots +10 and take the over 48.5.  If you got into that teaser while the Pats were getting 3 points, I still like that pick, but I’m going with the Saints -1.5.

I think the Saints win this one in a very, very close game, but the Pats shouldn’t have any problem losing by less than 10 points.  This game will likely be decided by a field goal or a single touchdown.  If you waited to bet on this game until tonight, what do you do now that the spread has moved to Saints -1.5 and the over/under moved from 54.5 to 55.5?

I think your chances of getting this one right are as good as a coin flip. So pull out a quarter and say heads go to the Pats, tails go to the Saints.  I will be taking the Saints though.  They are at home, which is critical, their defense is right on par with New England, and their offense can outscore anyone.

HOME TEAM + MONDAY NIGHT, I LIKE THE SAINTS -1.5. Just a small bet though since Tom Brady is really, really good and I don’t want to have to worry too much about the money and just watch the game for enjoyment.

Prediction: Saints 34 – Patriots 31

Tonight’s Play: Saints -1.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

Note: If you grabbed it early in the week, I still like my original teaser of Patriots +10, Over 48.5

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