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NFL Week 13 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 2nd, 2009 | 25 Comments

We’ve been on a hell of run lately.  From the last Sunday night through the Friday after Thanksgiving, we were on an 11-0 run. We took some losses on Saturday due to some bad beats (Georgie Tech QB Josh Nesbitt getting injured and then missing the over on the Florida/FSU game by 3 points after FSU settles for 3 points on the 1 yard line instead of going for it on 4th down), but we had a hell of a Sunday.  I placed 1 BIG bet on Sunday during the day and that was my Chargers/Vikings teaser, which was won very easily. We then won the Sunday night game and then the Monday night game as well, extending the Sunday/Monday night steak to 6-0.  We then took the Saints winnings and put them on UNC Tuesday night, which also hit for us with ease.

So since last Sunday night, let’s tally up those W’s and L’s. Are you ready for this? 15-3 (83.33%).  In other words, don’t mess with the master’s flow when he has a one bad week! Our winning percentage in the last week is higher than the employment rate in this country (there’s 17.8% un- and under-employment, for your information).

ONE LAST TIME. MY LAST 18 PICKS ARE 15-3. CHA-CHING!

Reminder: Don’t forget to set your picks in our Pick ‘Em league and vote in our poll.

NEW YORK JETS -3 @ BUFFALO BILLS

This is the Thursday Night game, which will be played in Toronto. I don’t like this game at all. Mark Sanchez sucks and the Bills suck too, but managed to beat the Dolphins last week, which was a huge surprise to me.  This one doesn’t even deserve my attention, so I’m going to skip over it. If you want a Thursday Night game to watch or bet on, I recommend the Pac 10 Championship between Oregon and Oregon State instead of this garbage, and I like the teaser of Oregon -3, Over 55, which you can read about here.

DENVER BRONCOS -5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The Broncos finally ended their 4-game skid by getting a Thanksgiving win over the Giants, which surprised me, but at least I warned you that taking the Giants may result in a loss.  The Chiefs were demolished by the Chargers last week, but the last time they played in KC, they upset the Steelers. Crazy stuff occasionally goes down in Arrow Head Stadium. For my money, I like taking the Broncos here, but due to the Steelers upset, I’m approaching this game very cautiously and will not be taking it personally.

Prediction: Broncos 24 – Chiefs 16

Free Pick: Broncos -5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

This is a pick ’em here and I’m feeling that the Texans are just due for a win.  They were upset on Monday Night at home by the Titans and then ended up losing to the Colts after gaining a 14-0 lead. 91% of the money is on the Texans and 8/8 of the experts at Covers.com like the Texans here. With CB Mathis still doubtful for the Jags, I think Andre Johnson hurts them. The Jags pass offense blows, so that’s the difference in this one.  Can’t beat the spread either at a pick ’em.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Jaguars 20

Free Pick: Texans (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -5.5 @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Monday Night was awesome for me. Not only was my Saints pick perhaps the easiest cover of the season thus far, but I got to see Tom Brady with that famous sour look on his face for the entire second half. The same face we saw against the Colts and the same face during the Super Bowl against the Giants. I loved every minute of seeing him lose. That sets up the perfect opportunity for him to beat the pants off the Dolphins this Sunday. 98% of the public likes the Pats and 4/5 experts at Covers.com do. The Pats beat the Dolphins about 3 weeks ago by 10 points, 27-17. In this one, I think they win by 10 or even more. Look for them to turn on the jets and be all business this game. That Pats are not going to lose their 5th game of the season. The moneyline at -240 looks like a lock to me, but the Dolphins have put up a fight at home to teams like the Colts and Saints.

Prediction: Patriots 31 – Dolphins 17

Free Pick: Patriots -5.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS -6.5

I cannot bet on the Panthers here. They lost at home to the Dolphins and followed that up with a pathetic loss to the Jets. It seems like all the players on that team have given up on the season. The Bucs are actually playing for pride unlike the Panthers.  I’m going against the grain and saying the Bucs cover here, but am I willing to bet on the Bucs for the sake of taking points? No, I am not.

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Buccaneers 20

Free Pick: Buccaneers +6.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ CHICAGO BEARS -9

About 5 weeks ago, I would have loved the Bears here, but they’ve been pretty pathetic in the last couple weeks (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). Orlando Pace may be out Sunday. Lance Briggs, Alex Brown, and Charles Tillman are all questionable. Chicago is averaging 12 PPG in their last 3 games, so of course I’m not going to give up 9 points, even if it is against the Rams. This does appear to be the perfect game for Chicago to rebound though, especially if they can get Matt Forte going against the Rams awful run defense, but I cannot take the game based on the Bears recent performance. The Rams are averaging just 8.8 PGG on the road, so the Bears should actually get their first cover in 5 weeks. I’m doing one of my famous teasers on this on, Bears and the Under.

Prediction: Bears 20 – Rams 10

Free Pick: 7-point Teaser: Bears -2, Under 48 (Confidence: 3/5)

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -7

How about them Titans. After starting the season 0-6, they’ve won 5 straight games, and actually have a chance to make the playoffs if their luck can continue. 56% of the public’s money and 5/6 experts at Covers.com like the Titans and the points here. It sounds intriguing, but I don’t see how you can bet against Peyton Manning at home. I guess people are feeling that the Colts are due for that first loss of the season after they flirted with that first L with the Ravens and then Texans. You could tease this to the Colts in a pick ’em game, but what do you do with the over/under set at 47. Do I like over 40 or under 54? The game total should be right in that range so I think you are likely to win either way you tease it. Tough call here.

Prediction: Colts 27 – Titans 20

Free Pick: 7-point teaser: Colts, Over 40 or Under 54 up to you

DETROIT LIONS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS -13

I don’t like the Bengals as 13-point favorites. The Bengals don’t usually beat teams by bunch (usually by just 3-7 points, but this is the Lions here). They didn’t cover against the Browns (16-7 as 14-point favorites) and they didn’t cover against the Raiders — they actually lost to the Raiders! The Lions have just been getting creamed though, so I don’t like the +13 either. The over/under is at a low 42, so I think you can tease this one down to 35 to take the over and the Bengals at -6, but I thought the Bengals and Browns game from last week could hit the over 32.5 and that one ended in a 16-7 score. How did the Bengals manage a mere 16 points against the Browns? I don’t know, but the Lions should definitely give up more points than the Browns did last week.

Prediction: Bengals 27 – Lions 16

Free Pick: 7-point teaser: Bengals -6, Over 35 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -9.5 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

I love the Saints here. Don’t let the Redskins 24 points last week on the Eagles fool you too much. Granted, the Redskins played well, but the Eagles gave the Redskins 7 points at the start of the game by attempting an onside kick to begin the game, which gave the Redskins a short field (about 30 yards) to set up a TD. The Redskins have been playing with a bit more pride lately, and WR Devin Thomas is really impressing me, but the Saints should kill them. My only worry is if they suffer a “Monday Night hangover” after their big win, so let that be your “buyer beware” on this game. If they’re still celebrating Monday’s big win and take the Redskins lightly, they’ll be in trouble, but the way Sean Payton coaches, I’m sure he’ll have his team focused on this game.

Prediction: Saints 31 – Redskins 16

Free Pick: Saints -9.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5.5 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

I’m an Eagles fan, so the Matt Ryan injury came at the perfect time for them. That’s the whole reason 5/5 experts at Covers.com like the Eagles here. With Matt Ryan doubtful and Michael Turner questionable, the Falcons are in a lot of trouble this game. I wish the Eagles would win more convincingly the last two weeks, but a win is a win. I think the Eagles have an easy time covering against a defense that gives up a lot of yards and an offense without their two biggest stars. Unfortunately, DeSean Jackson will sit this one out, but I have enough faith in Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant for McNabb to get it done. Look for LeSean McCoy to have a larger role in the offense now that DeSean is out and McNabb still has his favorite target TE Brent Celek to work with.

Prediction: Eagles 27 – Falcons 17

Free Pick: Eagles -5.5 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -13 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

I was loving the Chargers and Vikings last week as they rolled over their opponents and helped my big teaser hit. The Browns average 11.1 PPG and give up 25.4 PPG. The Chargers score 28.4 PPG and give up 19.9 PPG. Easy math here. The Chargers just dismantled the Chiefs last week 43-14. I like the Chargers here despite the high spread.

Prediction: Chargers 31 – Browns 10

Free Pick: Chargers -13 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ PITTBURGH STEELERS -14.5

Pretty ridiculous spread here. I guess the books are counting on the Steelers defense on not allowing the Raiders to score at all.  I’m not touching this one at all.  The Raiders have played the role of the spoiler a few times.

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Another game that I don’t like at all and will completely ignore.

DALLAS COWBOYS -2.5 @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Eli Manning is playing really hurt and we saw it affect him last week. Manningham and Bradshaw are both questionable, which spells more trouble for the G-Men. This looks like a good spot to take the Cowboys, whose defense has been incredible latey, giving up just 12.7 PPG in their last 3 games.

Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Giants 17

Free Pick: Cowboys -2.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3 @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Livinitup told us that the spread was originally -1 but everyone and their mother took the Vikigns and the books had to take the spread down and readjust it to the tune of a 4.5 point line movement.  I loved the Vikings at -1 and I still love them at -5.5.  Their defense is ridiculous and their offense is even better. Count on a Saints vs. Vikings NFC Championship, which is going to be awesome!  I don’t care if Warner or Leinart is playing QB, the Vikings should cruise past the Cardinals.

Prediction: Vikings 31 – Cardinals 23

Free Pick: Vikings -3 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -3

Three straight wins for the Pack now, so they’re firmly back in the playoff hunt when things after looking pretty bleak. I’m worried about some Packer injuries though. Al Harris and Aaron Kampman are missing from that defense. The Pack have two offensive linemen questionable, which has been their weakness all season long. The Ravens also have a lot of injuries too. Suggs is likely out again this week and they’ll also likely miss LB Burgess. I love the way Ray Rice is playing though. This is going to be a tough one and I see this one going either way. By no means is this a good game to bet on, but I’m going to stick with the Pack at home. Monday night + home team. Worked last week, I think it works again here. I’ll probably post a revised pick on Monday Night to make the Monday Night play official, but I’m probably not touching this game.

Prediction: Packers 27 – Ravens 24

Free Pick: Packers -3 (Confidence: 1/5)

TOP 7 SPREADS RANKED BY STRENGTH:

I like a ton of individual games, so we don’t have to go nuts with the teasers, although that worked like a charm last week.  I’ll still throw out some teaser ideas at the end for you.

* Have to be weary of all the road teams, but that’s how I see it going down.

1a.) Patriots -5.5 over DOLPHINS

1b.) Eagles -5.5 over FALCONS

1c.) Cowboys -2.5 over GIANTS

1d.) Vikings -3 over CARDINALS

5.) Chargers -13 over BROWNS

6.) Texans over JAGUARS

7.) Saints -9.5 over REDSKINS

FUN PARLAYS:

1.) 3-Team Parlay (6-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5

2.) 4-Team Parlay (12-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowsboys -2.5, Vikings -3

3.) 5-Team Parlay (25-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5, Chargers -13, Vikings -3

3.) 6-Team Parlay (40-to-1): Patriots -5.5, Eagles -5.5, Cowboys -2.5, Chargers -13, Vikings -3, Texans

TEASERS TO PLAY:

1.) Favorite 2-Team Teaser: Saints -2.5, Chargers -6

2.) Quality 4-Team Teaser (2-to-1): Saints -2.5, Bengals -6, Chargers -6, Patriots +1.5

3.) Ultimate 8-Team Teaser (7-to-1): Patriots +1.5, Eagles +2.5, Cowboys +5.5, Texans +7, Chargers -6, Saints -2.5, Colts, Bengals -6

Disclaimer: Just because we’ve been damn good recently does not make any of these picks guaranteed. Do your own due diligence or Mr. T will throw a Mohawk grenade at you.



25 Responses to NFL Week 13 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread:

  1. livinitup

    Date: Dec 03, 2009 at 12:12 am

    VM

    Looks like a bunch of good games to bet on this weekend. I got a couple of units on the vikings at -1 before the game went off the boards. I know it’s contingent on warner or leinart, but what’s your thoughts on that game? Keep up the good work. Thanks

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 03, 2009 at 10:40 am

    This spread came out at -1? Are you serious? You my friend were granted a gift. I love this spread at -1 and it’s now at -5.5 and I still love it. I don’t care whose starting, the Vikings (like the Saints) cannot be stopped. I can’t wait to see that NFC Championship. Book it!

  3. livinitup

    Date: Dec 03, 2009 at 2:04 pm

    I looked at sportsbetting.com during halftime of the Sunday night game and it had all the lines up already. I saw the vikings at -1 and immediately put money on it because I thought it was to be too good to pass up. On Monday I looked again and it was off (which I figured was because of warner/leinart), so I logged into my account just to make sure I still had it and there it was. Then I saw the line come out at -5 and I thought I’d message you on your thoughts. Thanks again for the advice.

  4. Dan

    Date: Dec 03, 2009 at 5:25 pm

    I understand your feelings on the Vikings game at -5.5 but how does this pick compare to the Eagles at -5.5. I know its tough bc your a Philly fan…. but that aside, if you had to pick just one of the two, which would you take.

    Eagles -5.5 or Vikings -5.5?

  5. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 03, 2009 at 6:33 pm

    That’s a very tough call Dan. I am leaning towards Vikings since they’re a more dominant team than the Eagles, but the main reason I like the Eagles so much is because the Falcons will likely be without Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. The Atlanta D also gives up a lot of yards and points.

  6. Wood

    Date: Dec 05, 2009 at 3:12 pm

    I am debating on a couple of games to go with on a parlay as cannot decide to take the Cincinnati -13 or the Chargers -13?Also what do u think about the over/under on the Carolina-Tampa Bay game?

  7. livinitup

    Date: Dec 05, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    VM,

    Hate to keep beating a dead horse, but why do you think there’s so much line movement on the vikings/cards game? Looks like the line has moved to -3 now, which means public money is on the cards. I don’t see how the numbers fall in favor of the cards. In the last five weeks the cards have lost to the panthers, offensively struggled against the rams and titans and put up decent points against the bears and seahawks (but everyone does that). The vikings have been rolling avg. almost 33 ppg in the last three games. Am I missing something some factor where the public is taking the cards? Thanks as always.

  8. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 05, 2009 at 4:01 pm

    I don’t know. I am puzzled by this as well. As soon as I saw Vikings -3, I jumped on it. The only thing that could justify this move is if Brett Favre or Adrian Peterson were injured and after looking at the injury reports, they don’t appear on them. 84% of the public money is on the Vikings. 9/12 experts at Covers.com like the Vikings. I like the Vikings. I think this is an easy win unless they Vikings are “due for a loss.” That’s the only way I could explain why the spread is low.

  9. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 05, 2009 at 4:03 pm

    I like the Chargers over the Browns more than Bengals over the Lions for three reasons. First, the Browns offense is worse than the Lions, so they should not score much. Second, the Bengals rarely beat teams by more than 10 points. Third, the Chargers can score faster than the Bengals. I like the Chargers here, but of course, I’m always hesitant to take a West coast team ATS on the east coast — that’s your buyer beware warning. In the Bengals defense, the home field is an advantage they have over the Chargers. I am not playing these games personally. Right now I’m taking the Patriots -4.5, Vikings -3, Eagles -5.5, and Cowboys -2.5 games all individually.

    Bucs vs. Panthers total at 40? Anything goes there. Panthers are without Delhomme and DeAngelo Williams is questionable. I think that game goes under. 20-13, 20-16, that would be my expectation, but I wouldn’t be surprised with a 24-20 game either. Tough play there. Pick something else.

  10. livinitup

    Date: Dec 05, 2009 at 8:27 pm

    thanks VM

  11. Mark

    Date: Dec 05, 2009 at 10:11 pm

    Vikings(Minnesota) -3, Saints(NewOrleans) -9.5, Patriots(NewEngland) -4, Eagles(Philadelphia) -5.5, Cowboys(Dallas) -2.5

  12. Some Guy

    Date: Dec 06, 2009 at 8:54 am

    thnk i’m with you mark…. i feel like going with the best team in football right now (saints) over the texans or chargers who seem to stumble in games like these…

  13. Dan

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 9:59 am

    Wow. All I have to say is WoW. What a rough Sunday…..

    Good thing I swapped the Vikings for the Eagles last minute which caused me to go O-4 instead of 1-4. Who wudda thunk?

    NE -5.5,NO. Steelers -7.5,NO. Chargers -12.5,NO. Vikings -6.5,NO.

    Lets see if the Ravens can salvage a rough weekend so far.

    “Wacco for Flacco!”

  14. Mark

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 1:43 pm

    Ugly. 1-4

  15. VINCE

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 2:21 pm

    Ugly week lot’s of upsets. But hope next week will be better. Like the website first time being on I am a friend of Brandon.

  16. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 2:30 pm

    You knew it was going to be a whacky week when the Raiders put up 27 points on the Steelers and beat them IN PITTSBURGH!

  17. Mike

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 3:43 pm

    So what about tonight’s game, how do you feel about the game?

    I really want to place a bet tonight but not sure how to go. I almost feel like I should take the Raven’s the way the week has gone but the Pack has been on fire.

  18. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    Not touching tonight’s game. HOME TEAM + MONDAY NIGHT is all I have to say.

  19. Huskers#1

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 6:27 pm

    The ravens are the better team here. If you look at there schedule and you look at the packers it tells you why. The packers have had it pretty easy. It was an underdog weekend and that’ll stay the same.

  20. Rookie

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 11:04 pm

    Hello VM:

    I would like to dabble w/ an offshore book. Could you please recommend one that is U.S. friendly as well as easy for a beginner to learn with?

    What are “units?”

    If “Team A” is -7 and/or “Team B” is +7, does it matter who I choose (so long as the spread is covered)? I mean what is the difference of “Team A” being -3 or “Team B” being +3?

    Why doesn’t Vegas just make it simple by converting all the spreads into (+) positives? Instead of them telling us “This team -7,” why don’t they tell us “The other team +7?”

    Sorry for the redundancy VM :-)

  21. JJ

    Date: Dec 07, 2009 at 11:50 pm

    1-6 on the top seven

  22. Mike

    Date: Dec 08, 2009 at 6:23 am

    Good call with Green Bay and thank you for getting me to choose them. I ended up doing a teaser that got Green Bay +3.5 and Under 50.

  23. Billy

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 4:24 am

    What do you guys think about teasing the steelers game down to an almost pick em and the over to 23 for thursday night

  24. JL

    Date: Dec 10, 2009 at 10:22 am

    Hey Rookie, for an offshore book I use Sportsbook.com and have never had an issue in 3+ years.

  25. Janita Highley

    Date: Apr 09, 2013 at 11:15 pm

    Watch Sports Live On Your PC And Never Miss Another Game Again. No Contacts,No Hassles Just A One Off Payment For 24/7 Access To Your Favorite Sports. http://bit.ly/watch-sports-live

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