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NFL Week 15 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 16th, 2009 | 23 Comments

It was a winning week this past week.  We took down some plays on the Packers, Chargers, Eagles, Texans, and Vikings, and had losses with the Saints and Cardinals.  No big deal, I’ll take a 5-2 week anytime.  Now we’re getting into the thick of the NFL season when things get really exciting.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3 @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

As soon as I saw this spread, I loved it.  I said, hold on, did the Colts already clinch home field advantage? And it turns out that they did.  I quick news search on Google stated that Peyton Manning and all healthy starts will play this Sunday.  I would love taking the Colts if home field was on the line, but with no motivation to really win this one and not knowing how long Peyton will play: a quarter, a half, who knows, I think you stay away from this one.  On the other hand, I’m sure the Colts, like the Saints, want to go undefeated.  Can you imagine 18-0 Colts vs. 18-0 Saints in the SuperBowl?

Prediction: Colts 24 – Jaguars 20

Free Pick: Colts -3 (Confidence: 2/5)

DALLAS COWBOYS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7

I am loving this as an Eagles fan.  Not only did the Eagles win over the Giants give the Eagles sole possession of the NFC East with 2-straight home games against the 49ers and Broncos, but the Cowboys lost to the Chargers after losing to the Giants and now have to go on the road to face the Saints.  Saints are still playing for home field so I think you see them win this one.  The Cowboys December woes continue.  Get the “Is Wade Phillips getting fired?” talks going.  I’m loving this!

Prediction: Saints 27 – Cowboys 20

Free Pick: Saints -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -2

Browns beat the Steelers and Joshua Cribbs had a breakout performance as a running back! A healthy dose of Joshua Cribbs this game will give the Browns the win. Browns D is playing inspired and the Chiefs continue to be horrendous.

Prediction: Browns 24 – Chiefs 17

Free Pick: Browns +2 (Confidence: 3/5)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7 @ BUFFALO BILLS

I like the Patriots here, but reluctant to take them since there’s some team turmoil.  You didn’t see a run up in the score last week with the weather conditions.  You’ll obviously be getting another cold one in Buffalo.  I’m weary of betting against home underdogs, but I’m thinking the Pats are due for a big win.

Prediction: Patriots 24 – Bills 16

Free Pick: Patriots -7 (Confidence: 2/5)

ARIZONA CARDINALS -12 @ DETROIT LIONS

I swear it’s in Kurt Warner’s contract that he has to play like crap once every 5 games and throw a minimum an 3 picks and a fumble.  With the Lions awful defense, how can you not like the Cardinals even at -12? The Cardinals have been solid on the road, despite last week’s loss, but I’ll chalk that up to the Monday Night home team factor that we usually stick to plus the clause in Warner’s contract. The Lions should get blown out just like they did last week.

Prediction: Cardinals 38 – Lions 17

Free Pick: Cardinals -12 (Confidence: 3/5)

CHICAGO BEARS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -11

I was thinking of taking the points here.  The Bears are struggling big time, but they can contain the run, which was critical to Ravens win last week.  In a cold game with two teams known for defense and running, I think you see a tight, low scoring affair.

Prediction: Ravens 16 – Bears 10

Free Pick: Parlay Bears +11, Under 40.5 (Confidence: 2/5)

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7.5

I’m an Eagles fan.  Eagles play great football in December.  West coast teams struggle on the east coast at 1:00.  Eagles are in control of their own destiny now.  What else do you want to know?  LET’S GO EAGLES! E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES!!!

Prediction: Eagles 24 – 49ers 13

Free Pick: Eagles -7.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -6.5

Bengals are losing their mojo and the Chargers are HOT right now.  Chargers want to lock up that first-round bye.  I think you see them win by 10.

Prediction: Chargers 24 – Bengals 14

Free Pick: Chargers -6.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS -14

Don’t like this one with the high spread.  Sure, Brandon Marshall is the 3rd best receiver in the NFL behind Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.  However, the Raiders match up with the Broncos well.  This one will be too close for comfort with the spread, so I’m passing here.  Don’t want to take the Raiders for the sake of taking 14 points since the Raiders could easily get blown out.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -7

I’m going to pass on this one too since both teams blow.  Seahawks are at home, so that’s where I’m leaning, but don’t like this game.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2

Steelers cannot lose their 6th straight came, can they? Not at home, right? You have to feel the Steelers are due for a win, but they have just been anemic.  The Packers are hot right now and that who I’ll go with.

Prediction: Packers 24 – Steelers 20

Free Pick: Packers +2 (Confidence: 2/5)

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -9 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

Panthers don’t win unless they can run the ball.  Vikings are arguable the best team against the run.  The Vikings need this one to clinch the division and get that first-round bye. Panthers Pro-Bowl OT is out, so look for backup QB Moore to be pressured a lot.  This one is looking very one sided to me.

Prediction: Vikings 27 – Panthers 13

Free Pick: Vikings -9 (Confidence: 3.5/5)

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Redskins are playing much better right now.  Home Team + Monday Night = Usual Winning Ticket.  I’ll be rooting to the Redskins so the Giants are off the Eagles tails and the Eagles trip to the playoffs becomes easier. However, I think you see the Giants win this one. I want to stick to the home-team Monday night play, which usually works well, but my personal feelings are interfering with good judgment.  I think this a game you just have to pass on.

TOP 5 SPREADS THIS WEEK:

It’s a so-so card this week.  Here is what I like.  As you can see, no plays received a 4/5 rating.

1.) Vikings -9 over PANTHERS

2.) Cardinals -12 over LIONS

3.) CHARGERS -6.5 over Bengals (* Disclaimer: A lot of Vegas money is going on the Bengals according to Brandon.)

4.) EAGLES -7.5 over 49ers

5.) Browns +2 over CHIEFS



23 Responses to NFL Week 15 Predictions, Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Dan

    Date: Dec 16, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    I was able to get the Jags +6.5. Would this be a 3 or 4 unit play in your opinion?

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 16, 2009 at 5:01 pm

    Nice grab. I don’t know what to think of this game. It all depends on how much Peyton Manning plays. If he only plays a half, I think you’ll win.

  3. Wood

    Date: Dec 16, 2009 at 5:49 pm

    Say I was wondering if you think there is any interesting games you would play for a possible parlay this week as I know they are basically crap shoots for parlays to win?

  4. billy

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 1:49 am

    i like the cardinal game a lot over the lions but do you think there is a chance of them not covering? this week, do you think there is a for sure bet in any sport because i need to hit

  5. mike

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 9:29 am

    I really really love the vikings. Carolina is badly beatup and the vikings are sick. I agree with their number one choice

    As for arizona I never trust them. Sometimes they look brilliant and others they turn it over all day. They should win but that’s a really high spreað

  6. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 10:32 am

    No such thing as a lock Billy. Sure, it’s conceivable that the Lions may cover. If the Cards win by something like 31-20, the Lions cover. It’s conceivable, but I think the Cards blow them out, but that’s just like my opinion man. The Cards don’t have my faith since they’re all over the place. I lost on them to Panthers and a little bit on their 49ers game, so they always have me skeptical.

    Wood, I don’t think there’s anything you can really parlay here since it’s a tough card. I don’t see any gaves that I would even give a 4/5.

    Mike, I just don’t see how the Panthers will put up points with their run being shut down, their backup QB in the game, and best OT out. Looks like a rout to me, but you have to be cautious of those road games.

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 10:34 am

    Anyone see the CNBC special last night, Inside Illegal Gambling? They showed some big shot Vegas bettor taking the Bills +6 over Saints from the beginning of the season and the worker was like “Wow, great bet.” Good to see that loser lose that ticket. Who cashed in on the Saints that game? THIS GUY!

  8. SFNGAL

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 12:12 pm

    What about the Jets/Falcons, Titans/Dolphins and Texans/Rams games? Are you just taking a pass on them or are you waiting for additional info?

  9. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    Somebody does this every single time. The spreads weren’t out when I wrote the article. They’ll be released later.

  10. Dan

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 1:06 pm

    VM, how do you think the death of Chris Henry will effect Cinci in San Diego this weekend. Will your 2.5 units go up or down?

    I feel they will either be on fire and play in honor of his memory or be completely flat and distracted with their loss. Deaths on teams are always confusing in terms of how to bet that team. Thoughts?…….

  11. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 17, 2009 at 11:26 pm

    I think that works to their disadvantage. The game after Sean Taylor died, if I recall correctly, I believe the Redskins lost and did not cover, but I’m not certain about that. Anyway, San Diego is hot and at home, Bengals are losing steam. I like SD -6.5.

    I can’t believe you won with the Jags +6.5 and I won with the Colts -3. Well played sir. Great chance to cash two winning tickets if you could have placed two bets on each side with the big spread movement and get the double bonus if the number meets in the middle like it did tonight with a Colts win by 4.

  12. Dan

    Date: Dec 18, 2009 at 11:04 am

    Ha, that would’ve been pretty great. Lets hope the rest of this weekend pays out as well……

  13. Dan

    Date: Dec 19, 2009 at 12:00 pm

    In this history of the NFL has a visiting team ever not made it to a game as a result of the weather?????

    Im looking out my window right now to a ‘white out’ over the harbor in Baltimore. The snow is coming down hard and fast. Word on the street is the Bears still havent landed anywhere close to Baltimore and theyve been jumping around from airport to airport trying to get a flight but it doesnt look good because there is nowhere for them to land. Even if and when they do land, they will have been in airports for the last 2 days and going on 0 ‘real’ sleep.

    My question is this: I originally (middle of last week) decided to stay away from this game because 10.5 was alot of points to give the Bears in a very cold aka low scoring game. Now, Im thinking about betting the Ravens if the game is still on, as a result of the Bears being so worn out from traveling and may be very lethargic on defense. Do you think playing on little rest will allow Ray Rice and Flacco to put up a solid amount of points regardless of the weather? Im thinking maybe…..Sorry for being long winded but we’re snowed in and Im bored!

    (Below is from chicagobears.com)

    Snowstorm cancels Bears’ flight to Baltimore:

    Posted: 12/18/2009 11:58:00 PM

    The Bears tried to beat the snow in Baltimore, but they got sacked by Mother Nature.

    With 10-20 inches of snow expected to fall this weekend, the team moved its flight from Saturday afternoon to Friday night. But the Bears never made it to Baltimore.

    They boarded their charter at O’Hare at 10:30 p.m., and then sat on the plane before the flight was canceled at 12:30 a.m. because the snowstorm had arrived earlier than expected. The Bears bused back to Halas Hall, arriving at 1:15 a.m., and will attempt to fly to Baltimore late Saturday.

  14. livinitup

    Date: Dec 19, 2009 at 9:48 pm

    I think another question to ask is if the Ravens can even score 11 points in the game to cover. Sounds like it’s going to be hard to move the ball tomorrow for any East Coast games. I know games have been cancelled due to thunderstorms and games have been moved because of hurricanes, but I don’t think snow has ever caused the cancellation of a game (flights or game day problems). Hard to fathom anything different, but I’m over here is SoCal in shorts and a tshirt. Hope you have direct TV to watch all the games because it sounds like inside is where you’ll be tomorrow. Good Luck tomorrow.

  15. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 20, 2009 at 11:19 am

    Yea, I would not touch any of the games where there is a lot of snow. I still like the picks in my top 5. I still think you can hit that Bears +11, Under 40 parlay. I’m thinking a 16-10 game.

    livinitup, I hate you. I’m here in Philly with 22 inches of snow. Considering a move out to Cali.

  16. livinitup

    Date: Dec 20, 2009 at 3:15 pm

    LOL, yea I know VM. If it’s any consolation I do feel bad for you guys.

  17. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 21, 2009 at 5:02 pm

    To the person who wants to post threatening comments, what do you not understand about me saying in the top 5 picks that no picks earned a 4/5 week this week?

    I was 5-2 last week. 2-3 this week. My money is made on 4/5 picks, where I have something like a 67% win percentage. That’s where I bank my coin. I’m not throwing down much on games that I give a mere 2 or 3 rating. I built up a bank roll on my 4-rated games, and have some playing money for games that I give a 2 or a 3, but I’m not putting much on the line unless I’m pretty confident in the games. In fact, the last time I was throwing out 4’s was on Thanksgiving and those 4 starred picks were 2-0.

    My advice to you is due your own diligence on the games and don’t rely on what any one particular person says. There’s no such thing as a lock. This is the NFL — things get crazy — upsets happen every week. And pay attention to the confidence ratings.

  18. livinitup

    Date: Dec 22, 2009 at 1:07 am

    VM,

    Did you delete some posts? I don’t see any threatening posts.

  19. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 22, 2009 at 1:08 am

    Yeah, I deleted it. Some dude must have been pissed since he bet the farm on the Vikings last night.

  20. livinitup

    Date: Dec 22, 2009 at 1:58 am

    I hate losing too, but who doesn’t. That’s gambling. I hate to sound like I’m on my high horse, but people gotta make their own plays with their own due diligence. Football is the hardest bet to call, but yet vegas says it takes the most bets on football by far over any other sport. Thanks for the analysis every week. It makes for another good round of advice along with others for the week.

  21. mike

    Date: Dec 22, 2009 at 6:48 am

    Personally I think college is way easier and I have way way more success on that then professional.

    I feel like it is a sin to watch an nfl game without a little action though. Even if its 10 bucks I need something to make it enjoyable :)

  22. mike

    Date: Dec 22, 2009 at 6:52 am

    And thank you for posting scores. I took the jags +6.5 and dallas +8 based on your predicted scores

  23. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 24, 2009 at 1:13 am

    I agree that college is where it’s easier to make money if you know your college teams inside and out. It’s tougher for the average Joe since there’s so many teams to keep track of, but if you know your college football, that’s where you can make a lot.

    In the NFL, you’re always left scratching your head after a few games each year. The NFL is where crazy things happen. Raiders beat the Eagles, Bengals, Steelers, and Broncos. That makes them sound like a playoff team! The Browns beat the Steelers. Panthers beat the Cardinals and Vikings, but lose to Jets and Bills. Does any of this make sense?

    Hahaha, I’m glad the predicted scores gave you the edge there.

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