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Colorado vs. Colorado State Preview, Prediction, Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 2nd, 2010 | 2 Comments
Colorado vs. Colorado State Pick

Can Scotty McKnight help lead the Buffaloes to a winning season?

There’s two more games that I wanted to get around to before the college football season kicks off. Colorado vs. Colorado State and Oklahoma State vs. Washington State. Why am I previewing these games? Because Colorado State and Washington State are terrible teams which has me thinking that easy money could be made, so let’s check that out. I loved betting against the Browns, Raiders, Rams, and Lions last year because it was easy money. Let’s see if we can pick against the weaker college teams early this season.

COLORADO BUFFALOES (-11.5) @ COLORADO STATE RAMS

We’ll start with the Rams since their usually atrocious. The Rams had a 3-9 record last season (2-9 ATS). They started off with 3 wins, including a win over Colorado, then went 9-0. They had an impressive win over Nevada, but then got crushed by the likes of BYU, TCU, San Diego State, Air Force, and UNLV.

Like Brandon suggested, target teams to bet against that are losing a lot of offensive linemen. Colorado State is returning just one lineman and they’ll be forced go with a true freshmen QB Pete Thomas. Thomas was a highly touted recruit who threw for 5500 yards and 52 TDs in just three years of high school ball, so the kid has some skills. See highlights below.  RB Leonard Mason will do his best to help take pressure off Thomas in his first collegiate start.

Colorado was also 3-9 last season, but at least they played tough against the spread with a 7-5 record ATS. They also have 17 starters returning so they’re poised to surprise a lot of people this year. They were probably best known for upsetting 17th ranked Kansas last year 34-30 and covering against 12th ranked Oklahoma State 31-28. Junior QB Tyler Hanson (1440 yards, 8 TDs, 7 INTs last season in 8 games) has been given the starting role over Cody Hawkins who struggled last season. Hanson has some nice offensive pieces to work with in RB Rodney Stewart (804 yards, 6 TDs) and WR Scotty McKnight (76 receptions, 893 yards, 6 TDs), as well as a solid offensive line that is returning all five starters. Colorado also has a tough defense which gave up just 200 passing yards per game thanks to lockdown corner CB Jalil Brown, but they struggled against the run.

My initial impression was to take Colorado over Colorado State, but the spread is a bit too high. I can’t wait to see how the highly touted Pete Thomas performs in his first start. The rebuilt offensive line could be a problem for Colorado State. At Covers.com, 4/6 experts are picking the Rams. Perhaps you may want to go with the under 46.5 in this game as 7/8 of their experts are siding with the under. However, point-spreads.com likes the Rams +11.5 and the over 46.5. ESPN is predicting a Colorado victory 27-20.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Colorado wins this one. They’re a more experienced team with 17 starters returning including their entire offensive line, QB, and top playmakers. Colorado State has a shoddy defense that gave up nearly 390 yards of offense  per game last season and allowed 29.8 PPG. Although Colorado’s D wasn’t much better, allowing 28.8 PPG and allowing 363 YPG, they were quite solid against the pass. Colorado also has two very good corners who will give Colorado State’s Pete Thomas a hard time in his first start. However, if Pete Thomas can live up to the hype, I’m sure the Rams can cover in this one. I think Colorado will win by 7-10 points. If I was playing this game, which I won’t be, I would tease the line down to Colorado -4.5 or take Colorado State at +18.5 to pair with another game or pick between the over 39.5 or under 53.5.

Also keep in mind that Colorado will be looking for revenge for last year’s season open loss against the Rams.

Prediction: Colorado 27 – Colorado State 17

Pick Against the Spread: Tease it any way you like it, I think all 4 combos hit.

Colorado Players Talk About 2010 Season

Pete Thomas High School Highlights

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2 Responses to Colorado vs. Colorado State Preview, Prediction, Pick Against the Spread:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Sep 02, 2010 at 3:09 pm

    I was set to do a write up on this game when Colorado was a 14-point chalk. I did think the line was a little high, but CSU is one of the 10 worst D1 football programs out there right now. They return only 10 players total from last years squad. If my memory serves me right, this will be a revenge game for Colorado as CSU beat them in the opener last year, a shocking and crushing defeat that Colorado has not forgot about. The line is currently down to -11.5, but I just don’t see CSU scoring or moving the ball on a Colorado team that will be much improved from a year ago. I will definitely be leaning towards Colorado in this match up. Look for this line to bottom out here at -11.5 and move back up towards 12 or 13 by game time.

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 02, 2010 at 3:52 pm

    I definitely agree with you that Colorado is the play. As you can tell from all of the previews that I’ve done, I’m always ridiculously cautious at the start of the season.

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