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NFL Week 2 Over/Under Special

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 15th, 2010 | 5 Comments

Ochocinco and the Bengals have a tough divisional rival game this Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens.

After researching for some big NFL Week 2 winners, I found some very interesting trends that you guys might want to take a look at, and even put money on.

I have only been working for this website for two days, but last week I put money down on three over/under bets and went 2-0-1 (just to note the push of the San Fan over of 37, it was 28-6 with nine minutes remaining in the third quarter and both teams only managed to score three more points the rest of the game, so that was upsetting). Now all three of those bets that I made were because I found some very intriguing trends between the teams matched up.

Let’s take a look at some of my favorite over/under picks for week two:

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals (o/u = 40):

Top Trend: Cincinnati games against division opponents have gone under 11 of the last 12 games played within the last three seasons.

Notes: Did you not see Baltimore’s defense Monday night? They haven’t lost a beat. Cincinnati needs a much better first half.

Play on the under.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets (o/u = 38):

Top Trend: 12 of the last 14 New England games against conference opponents have gone over.

Play on the over.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (o/u = 44):

Top Trend: Off a division game, San Francisco has had 10 of their last 11 games following go over.

Notes: Don’t be fooled by the slow start that Drew Brees and the Saints got off to in week one, the majority of week one games do go under due to it being week one and teams getting back into the flow of things.

Play on the over.

Enjoy these few small plays off the trend for NFL week two.

5 Responses to NFL Week 2 Over/Under Special:

  1. Mikey T.

    Date: Sep 16, 2010 at 10:25 am

    “72% of week one games do go under due to it being week one and teams getting back into the flow of things”

    Joey G, where did you get that stat? I don’t think that’s very true, each team gets 4 pre-season games to get back into the flow of the game, week 1 is really like week 5 when you think about it.

    Did you watch the Saints and Vikings game? Brees was facing probably the best defense in the NFC conference, any QB would have had trouble against the Minnesota defensive line.

  2. Joey G

    Date: Sep 16, 2010 at 12:49 pm

    You can’t count four pre-season games as getting back into the flow of things when the starters usually play half the game at most. Those are games where it’s second strings versus second strings.

  3. Mikey T.

    Date: Sep 16, 2010 at 1:56 pm

    I watched the Saints in their pre-season games, they were in midseason form with their 1st Teamers and they played into the 3rd quarter in their last 2 pre-season tuneups. Minny’s defense is just that good at times.

    My main question hasn’t been answered, where did you get the 72% statistic? I find that hard to believe and would like some actual evidence to support that number because it is ridiculously high in my opinion. I was thinking more near 40-45% for week 1.

    My other question is, how do you expect San Francisco to score enough to help push the over. Jerry Rice is getting inducted into the 49’er HOF on Monday Night, I bet you can count on a spirited effort from Singletary’s defense and I see this game going under.

    Seattle scored all of their points off Alex Smith miscues, don’t see him making that many mistakes for a 2nd straight week.

  4. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 16, 2010 at 2:15 pm

    Mikey, I had the same line of thinking you had regarding the Saints/49ers game. The over/under is pretty low at 44 though. 24-20, 27-17, 31-13 all come in at the number. How many points can you expect the 49ers to score and how many points can you expect the Saints to put up? I guess we’ll find out Monday Night. I think Joey G is just playing the trend here. Hopefully, he’ll be able to clarify what makes him like this pick.

    I would also be inclined to believe that a substantial majority of week 1 games do go under. Joey G will have to verify where he received this information.

  5. Joey G

    Date: Sep 16, 2010 at 2:52 pm

    It’s off of research of Week 1 NFL games, Mikey T. I should have been more specific in my post. It’s the last three seasons of Week 1 games where 72% of Week 1 games go under. It’s better to go off of the last three seasons since they are the most recent and indicative of how teams will perform. Your 40-45% thinking is incorrect.


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