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Arizona vs. Iowa Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 17th, 2010 | 7 Comments

Arizona vs. Iowa Pick

Is Nick Foles ready to shine in the spotlight against a tough defense?

IOWA HAWKEYES @ ARIZONA WILDCATS (+2) — 10:30 ESPN

Both Brandon and The Kid like Arizona and I’m with them. Two factors here: it’s a home-dog play and it’s a revenge game for Arizona, who was beaten by Iowa 27-17 last year in week 3 when this game was in Iowa. The change in location will be key this time around as Arizona was 4-0 ATS at home against conference foes last year. Although a Big 10 team is rolling into town, I’m saying this because with covers against Oregon (-5.5), California (+7.5), Stanford (+4), and Washington (+33), they had an impressive home resume last year.

QB Nick Foles is really coming along and is ready to have a breakout year. Although he’s only faced Toledo and The Citadel, he’s completed 83.1% of his passes. Arizona is averaging over 500 yards of offense and has outscored their two opponents 92-8. Iowa’s offense has equally been impress with their two blowout wins, averaging 457 yards per game and 37 points per game.

In the Iowa game last year, Foles only got 11 passing attempts. It wasn’t until after that game that Foles became the man at QB. Another player to watch is the elusive RB Nic Grisby who has already piled up 160 yards and 5 TDs on just 19 attempts — a ridiculous 8.4 YPC. Iowa is going to have a tough time matching up with Foles and the weapons that he has around him. Foles has two very talented 6’4″ receivers in Juron Criner and Delashaun Dean.

On defense, Iowa will need another big game out of #94 DE Adrian Clayborn if they want a shot at winning this one. This 6’4″ 285 pound beast was tied for 9th in sacks last year with 11.5 sacks and was ranked 10th in tackles for a loss with 20. Clayborn was a key part to Iowa’s 10th ranked defense that held opponents to just 15 points per game last year. Iowa held GT to 14, Penn State to 10, Michigan State to 13, and Wisconsin to 10 last year. Those are some impressive numbers. Arizona’s defense isn’t too shabby either (ranked 21st last year). Their impressive pass rush recorded 34 sacks last year. That’s not going to pose well for an Iowa team that has just 2 offensive linemen returning.

However, there’s one trend that is not in Arizona’s favor. Arizona is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Big 10, while Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Iowa’s D is too good for me to jump all over this one, but if you want to take Brandon and The Kid’s advice, then Arizona is your play. Arizona’s passing game should be the key in this one and will likely lead them to a win as long as Arizona’s offensive line holds their own against that tough Iowa defensive line.

Prediction: Arizona 24 – Iowa 20

Pick Against the Spread: Arizona +2 (Confidence: 2/5)

Nick Foles Highlights

Adrian Clayborn Highlights

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7 Responses to Arizona vs. Iowa Pick Against the Spread:

  1. Shawn Kauffman

    Date: Sep 18, 2010 at 1:36 pm

    Iowa is going to kick the shit out of Arizona.. No questions asked. This was a horrible prediction!

  2. Joey G

    Date: Sep 18, 2010 at 2:41 pm

    Shawn,

    Vegas loves people like you. They call you a “square”. You’re thinking, “oh just because Iowa is ranked, they’re gonna win by double digit points.”

    Well go ahead and put some money on Iowa tonight because I agree with Vegas’s pick here and if you go against it you will lose. Arizona covers spreads in their home games going 5-1 ATS in their last six.

    Do you have any stats to back up your pick here Shawn? If so, let me know.

  3. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 18, 2010 at 2:49 pm

    We’ll find out tonight Shawn. No doubt Iowa has a tough front seven, but with Arizona’s passing game and being at home, I’ll clearly side with them in this one.

  4. livinitup

    Date: Sep 18, 2010 at 4:23 pm

    Game is now at Arizona -2. Still think it’s good?

  5. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 18, 2010 at 4:53 pm

    Clearly shows you that everyone is onto Arizona. Still looks good to me. They should win outright by more than 2. Currently loving my big plays in Nebraska (-3) over Washington and Alabama (-23.5) over Duke. NEB up 49-21. ALA is up 48-13. I’m going to do a small wager on Arizona. Good luck.

  6. livinitup

    Date: Sep 19, 2010 at 1:22 am

    Vegas-Took the cats at -2 and got a little worried at the end. But you said it was going to be closer than the others so it wasn’t a total surprise. Good call on this game. Keep up the “horrible” work by pumping out winners.

  7. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 19, 2010 at 1:57 am

    Thank you my friend. Glad we had a killer Saturday. Tomorrow will be tough. I’m keeping it light. Posted an update on my feelings for tomorrow.

    Shawn: C’mon man. I told you so. (I think he goes to University of Iowa).

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