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Thursday Night Winner: Play on Under

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 22nd, 2010 | 11 Comments

Miami Hurricanes @ Pittsburgh Panthers

We’re in for a treat Thursday night when the Panthers host the Hurricanes. These two teams haven’t met since 2003 when Miami topped them 28-14. Miami is coming off a bye week and got that extra week to recover after that 36-24

Pitt looks to celebrate a victory tomorrow under the lights.

loss to Ohio State. And if you think about it, the Miami/Ohio State game should have been a lot lower scoring, but Miami had four crucial turnovers that led to some easy Ohio State scores. Miami’s defense has had that extra week of rest and has their work cut out for them with Pitt as they average 31 points a game.

Ok now let’s talk about some of the major reasons why I like the under besides the stats. The line opened up at a total of 55. If any of you have been following the line movement you’ll notice it’s down to 50. Now for all you mathematicians out there that’s a difference of five points. FIVE! Jump on the under. If there’s one play that I think will hit for sure this week it’s the under in this game. You might hear people “oh they put up 24 against that stifling Ohio State defense” and “oh Pitt is average 31 points per game how can you take the under!”. Well don’t be fooled.

Key Trends:

  • The under is 7-0 in Miami’s last seven against Big East opponents.
  • The under is 10-4 in Miami’s last 14 Thursday night games.
  • The under is 10-4 in Pitt’s last 14 Thursday night games.
  • The under is 5-1 in Pitt’s last six following a win in the previous week.

Play on under (50) Confidence (4/5) (Winner)

Want my opinion on the spread? Go home dog baby. Wouldn’t recommend betting it, but I like Pitt to win this one outright.



11 Responses to Thursday Night Winner: Play on Under:

  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Sep 22, 2010 at 10:21 pm

    I agree Joey G. I don’t know if you saw me mention it my picks, but I’m definitely feeling the under in this one.

    http://www.thepassrush.com/2010/09/21/week-4-college-football-picks-against-the-spread/

    Concerning the 24 points against Ohio State… 14 points came from kickoff/punt returns!

  2. Joey G

    Date: Sep 22, 2010 at 10:40 pm

    I just really like the line movement. Big five point shift.

  3. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Sep 23, 2010 at 4:45 am

    Interesting Note: According to a at least 2 different online sources, 80% of the bets have come in on Miami resulting in a minor 0.5 shift from Miami -3 to -3.5. So that means one of two things: (1) “smart money” is heavy on Pitt, as that disparity would normally result in a much greater line change, but remember my earlier note that Vegas cares about one important thing and that is they get a 50/50 split on the amount wagered on all bets, or (2) Bookmakers have a lot of faith in Pitt covering this number and are willing to take the risk of Miami winning and taking a hit or sticking to the their guns and banking a huge pay day if Pitt covers. Either way you look at it, it appears Pitt +3.5 is where your money should be if your looking to play a side in this affair.

  4. tangerineDREAM

    Date: Sep 23, 2010 at 9:50 am

    Canes win outright. 24-17

  5. Joey G

    Date: Sep 23, 2010 at 12:56 pm

    If you’ve noticed the line movement today, it actually dropped another point to 49. Better take it before it drops too low.

  6. Dave Bundy

    Date: Sep 23, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    Under is too easy in this one. You know full well these teams are going to commit turnovers allowing short fields. Miami is going to playaction Pitt to death and Pitt will have no choice but to chuck it down field to keep pace.

    Miami 34 Pitt 30

  7. mike

    Date: Sep 23, 2010 at 9:00 pm

    Well looks like that under was a sweet call. I actually must admit I was apprehensive on it but I gave up a long time ago arguing with your logic :)

    17-0 midway thru the third and pitt has it on their own 20.

  8. Joey G

    Date: Sep 23, 2010 at 10:01 pm

    Hope you all took the under tonight. Glad to help.

  9. Vogt

    Date: Sep 24, 2010 at 8:40 am

    Took the canes at -3.5 for the win….

  10. Joey G

    Date: Sep 24, 2010 at 9:41 am

    Good bet, Vogt, I had a weird hunch on Pitt but I did advise not to bet on it.

  11. Vogt

    Date: Sep 25, 2010 at 2:32 pm

    I can’t remember who called Central Michigan +7 over Northwestern, but thanks. Keeps my parlay alive. Let’s keep it rolling.

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