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Thursday Night Winner: Play on OK State

Posted by in College Football, College Football Picks on September 28th, 2010 | Comment »

Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

We have a Big 12 match-up Thursday night with two undefeated teams. Both teams were on a bye week last week and it will be their first conference game. The past two meeting have been very high scoring, and Oklahoma State has come out on top in both winning 56-28 (as a 26 point favorite) and then winning last season 36-31 (as a 5 point favorite, pushing).

The Oklahoma State offense is too much for the Aggies' defense.

Both teams have very efficient offenses, as Oklahoma State actually ranks 2nd in the nation in passing yards this season. Oklahoma state crushed Tulsa in their last game 65-28, accumulating 722 total yards on offense, over half of those throwing the ball. Texas A&M snuck by Florida International 27-20 being a 29 point favorite, obviously not covering that spread due to the fact that they turned the ball over five times that game. Speaking of spreads, both teams are currently 2-1 ATS this season.

Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation on defense, and will definitely have their hands full in this one. They have a great rush D, but are ranked 50th in the nation in pass D. QB Brandon Weeden for OK State is on absolute fire throwing 6 TDs with 0 INTs against Tulsa in their last contest. I hope OK State sees those stats and throws the ball all night. I don’t see them giving the ball to Kendall Hunter too much.

Texas A&M’s quarterback Jerrod Johnson is coming off a game where he threw the ball to the other team four times! Talk about having no confidence entering Thursday. OK State did let Tulsa get their passing yards, so maybe he rebounds? RB Christine Michael was about the only player to have a good game in their close one with FLA Intl, rushing for 119 yards and also scoring a touchdown. The Aggies have a good defense, but the Cowboys’ offense is just simply too overpowering.

Other notes:

  • Both of these teams have a tendency to go over the total. Consider that a play if you’d like.
  • The Aggies are only 1-6 ATS when playing on a Thursday.
  • The Cowboys are 11-4 in their last 15 as a home favorite.
  • Don’t forget, my Thursday night plays are 2-0-0 in the past two weeks.

With the stats I’ve been looking at, my play is definitely on Oklahoma State (-3.5). You might have got this spread at the closing (-2.5) or (-3) so let’s hope you took that for a winner or even a push

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