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Baltimore Raven vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 11th, 2010 | 83 Comments

Ravens vs. Falcons PickBALTIMORE RAVENS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (-1)

Thursday Night Football starts tonight and we are treated to a great game between the Ravens and Falcons. Both teams are 6-2, both teams are 4-0 at home and 2-2 on the road, and both have been mediocre against the spread covering 4 of their 8 games this season. The Falcons have the offensive edge, while the Ravens have the defensive edge.

This is a tough game to call. The Falcons average 30 PPG at home while the Ravens average just 14 PPG on the road. However, the Falcons defense has been slipping up the last few weeks due to injuries. The Falcons are averaging 28 PPG allowed in their last 3 while their season average is just 19 PPG. Baltimore is finally showing some offensive production, averaging 27 PPG in their last 3, which matches the Falcons average.

The public is favoring the Ravens, who are getting 63% of the action against the spread. I just can’t make up my mind about this pick. I am torn 50/50. I love Atlanta’s offense and the fact that they’re at home, but I also think that the Ravens are a better all-around team. The Ravens haven’t really shown me much on the road though, so I’m not ready to jump on them this game.

With the over/under at 43.5, I would favor the over. The Falcons score a lot, especially at home. The Ravens will likely also score their fair share of points against the Falcons struggling defense.  The over 36.5 looks like an extremely safe play if you want to add the points to the Falcons (+6) or Ravens (+8).

Prediction: Falcons 27 – Ravens 24

Picks Against the Spread: Falcons -1 (Confidence: 2/5), Over 43.5 (Confidence: 2/5), Falcons +6/Over 37.5 (Condfidence: 2/5)



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