NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread

In week 2 of the NFL, I hit my top big-money play in the Detroit Lions (-7.5) over the Kansas City Chiefs. I called a blowout in that game and that’s exactly what happened. There were four games that I recommended last week: Lions, Ravens, Packers, and Cowboys. The Cowboys pushed. The Packers missed on the spread when the Panthers scored a TD on their final drive in the last two minutes to pull the game within 7 points. The Ravens, which I warned was a suckers pick, just didn’t show up in Tennessee and Hasselbeck did a complete 180 from his week 1 performance. Although my top 4 picks went 1-2-1 ATS, I hit my big-money play and that’s pretty much all I care about.

In the pick ’em league, I went 6-8-2 ATS after a 9-5-2 record in week 1. One loss was due to picking my own team in the Eagles that should have won the game if they didn’t shoot themselves in the foot with a fumble on the goal line that led to a Falcons return to the 20 that set up a TD. Those 14-point swings are just killer. My only regretful picks were the Seahawks (+14.5) and Jaguars (+10). I saw an opportunity to take points although I knew the odds were not in their favor and got shot down. You sometimes have to take chances to get ahead in the pick ’em league and those two picks back-fired on me. If I change those picks, I come out two weeks in a row above .500. It was worth a shot. Let’s get onto week 3.

I have five recommendations this week: Chargers, Lions, Steelers, Ravens, and Panthers, and somewhat in that order.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (-14.5)

I’m calling another blowout against the Chiefs this week. The Chiefs offense hasn’t done anything this season and has lost their most dynamic playmaker in Jamaal Charles. How many points can they score on the road in San Diego, 13 tops? The Chargers typically average about 27 PPG and the Chiefs have given up a crap load of points this season. With Eric Berry also out for the Chargers, they’ve lost their biggest two impact players on both sides of the ball. Philip Rivers should have a monster game. After last week’s tough loss against the Patriots, the Chargers will look to blow out the Chiefs Lions-style to prove a point. The Chargers could have covered and maybe even won against the Patriots if it wasn’t for sloppy turnovers in the red zone. In the Chargers last two games against the Chiefs at home, the Chargers have won 31-0 and 43-14.

Prediction: Chargers 38 – Chiefs 13

Pick Against the Spread: Chargers -14.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

I’m going to keep riding this Detroit Lions train. After taking down some big money with them last week, I’ll test them out on the road this week against a Vikings team whose offense has not been in sync. With the Lions tough front seven, Peterson should be contained, but he’ll also get his yards and a touchdown or two. I don’t see the Vikings scoring more than 17-20 points. The Lions offense has been on fire, which is why I drafted their whole offense on one fantasy team. The Lions should be due for 24-27 points.

Prediction: Lions 27 – Vikings 17

Pick Against the Spread: Lions -3.5 (Confidence: 4/5)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-10.5) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts are really struggling against the run, which is why I picked the Browns last week. Rashard Mendenhall over 100 yards is pretty much guaranteed, especially if Gary Bracket and Ernie Sims are out (they’re listed as questionable). The Steelers shut out the Seahawks last week. I don’t see Kerry Collins having much success against a Steelers defense that redeemed themselves after their week 1 let down against the Ravens.

Prediction: Steelers 24 – Colts 10

Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -10.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3.5)

Alright, I’ll admit it. Cam Newton is the real deal. He almost cost me my survivorship in week 1 of my survivor pool against the Cardinals, but the Cardinals miraculous punt return sealed the deal for me. Newton had two 400-yard games to start his career. The Jaguars offense has been anemic. I think Cam Newton is due for his first win, don’t you?

Prediction: Panthers 24 – Jaguars 17

Pick Against the Spread: Panthers -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5) @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams have a really tough schedule to start and should move to 0-3 when they have to face the Ravens. The Ravens didn’t look to good last week after they looked unbelievable in week 1. Such is life in the NFL. Sometimes teams just don’t show up after a big win. I don’t expect the Ravens to drop to 1-2 against a Rams team whose offense hasn’t looked too threatening this season.

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Rams 20

Pick Against the Spread: Ravens -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)