Monday Night Pick: Vikings vs. Packers

I led the pick ’em league this week with a 10-5 ATS record, but the posted picks went 1-2 ATS which I apologize for. I hit on the Texans pick, but fell victim to another shocking upset with the Seahawks topping the Ravens. Logic would dictate that if the Ravens beat the Steelers twice, and the Steelers beat the Bengals, and the Bengals destroyed the Seahawks, that the Ravens should destroy the Seahawks, but logic doesn’t always play out in the NFL, especially when trying to pick road favorites to win. But we hit on the Falcons as road favorites last week and hit on the Texans as road favorites this week — you win some, you lose some. Onto Monday Night.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (-13)

I would lean Packers at home on Monday Night. Their offense is just dominating, but the Vikings have improved since they’ve put in Christian Ponder at QB. I don’t liking giving up so many points since a 7-13 point win by the Packers is within the realm of possibilities. I would tease the Packers down to -6 and tease the over/under from 49.5 to 42.5 and take the over. The over is 7-2 in the Packers last 9 home games, but the under  is 7-1 in the Vikings last 8 road games. I was originally leaning picking the under 56.5 since it’s just a ton of points, but I think the Packers are due for 30 and the Vikings are due for 20, so one more TD would bust up the card. The game should end in a minimum score of 24-20, 27-17, or 31-13 to hit on the over.

We all know the Packers are going to get their points. They’re averaging 34.4 PPG on the season, 38.3 PPG at home, and 34.0 PPG in their last 3. The Vikings are averaging 21.0 PPG on the season, but only 17.0 PPG on the road. Both defenses give up an average of about 24 PPG.  When the Packers faced the Vikings in the Dome earlier this season, the Packers won 33-27. I don’t count on the Vikings playing that well on the road. In 2010, the Packers swept the series winning 28-24 at home and then 31-3 on the road.

Look for a Packers domination, but a game that Vikings could cover the 13 points with if they score a meaningless 4th quarter touchdown after Aaron Rodgers already has the game wrapped up with a 17-20 point lead.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Vikings 20

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -6/Over 42.5