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Thanksgiving Day Football Picks Against the Spread Special

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 24th, 2011 | Comment »

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! As readers of the site know, THE PASS RUSH tends to heat up around Thanksgiving time. Last year our Thanksgiving picks went 3-0 ATS to follow up a 4-0 ATS the week before. Last week, we hit all of our picks going 2-0-1 on Sunday and nailing the Monday night game to go 3-0 in our last 3 Monday Night Picks. The last week has positioned us to make a huge run in the last week of November going into Decemeber.

2011 NFL Thanksgiving Day Picks Against the Spread

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-6) @ DETROIT LIONS

We finally get to see a competitive game on Thanksgiving featuring the Lions. We have the 10-0 Green Bay Packers vs. 7-3 Detroit Lions. I don’t think the Lions have played on Thanksgiving with a winning record in over a decade. With both teams averaging over 30 PPG, I am excited to watch this game. I’m definitely leaning Packers, but I’ve been singing the Lions praises since before the season even started. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games, while the Lions are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. In the last 10 games between these teams, the Packers are 7-3 ATS. I’m going to go with the better team and the team with a history of winning this matchup, the Green Bay Packers. No doubt that Lions are a much better football team capable of finally beating the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers is just a machine. He will put scoring drive after drive together and keep the Lions offense off the field as best he can. 63% of the money is on the Packers in this one.

Prediction: Packers 31 – Lions 24

Free Pick Against the Spread: Packers -6 (Confidence: 3/5)


MIAMI DOLPHINS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (-7)

What has happened to the Miami Dolphins in the last three weeks? They have rattled off three straight wins all in dominating fashion, albeit against weak opponents (Kansas City, Washington, and Buffalo). Is Matt Moore the guy they needed at QB? I guess they just handed over the Andrew Luck sweepstakes to the Indianapolis Colts. In their last 3 games, Miami has averaged 28.7 PPG while allowing 6.7 PPG. Dallas’s offense has been even more impressive in the last three weeks though. They are averaging over 400 yards of offense per game and have put up an average of 31.3 PPG. This game looks like a good candidate to take the points, but I think the Dolphins success over the last three weeks have been overblown. I don’t think you see the same Miami team show up this week and play a hard-fought game on Thanksgiving on the road. The Dallas offense is rolling and their D is playing well too. Miami’s offense won’t have the same success they’ve had in the last three weeks against this Dallas defense. 70% of the money is on Dallas in this one.

Prediction: Dallas 31 – Miami 17

Pick Against the Spread: Dallas -7 (Confidence: 3/5)


SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3.5)

What an incredible Thursday night game to top off a great day for football on Thanksgiving. The 7-3 Baltimore Ravens are hosting the 9-1 San Fransisco 49ers. I can’t believe the  49ers are 9-1. With the 49ers league-leading 14.5 PPG, a lot of people are jumping on the 49ers with the points. Just 54% of the money is coming in on the Ravens. The Ravens have been an odd team to bet on this year. When the Ravens play bad teams, take the points.  When Ravens play good teams, bet the Ravens. The Ravens failed to cover against the Cardinals, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Titans, but have covered against the Jets, Texans, and Steelers twice. The 49ers have failed to woo me despite their 9-1 record. Their only impressive win was over the Lions and perhaps the Giants and Eagles. Most teams would be 9-1 if they were fortunate enough to be given the 49ers schedule. When the 49ers are on the road, their offensive scoring average is just 20 PPG compared to their overall average of 25.6 PPG. The over/under is set up 40. I’m expecting a low-scoring game with a lot of stuffed runs and a lot of punting. The over is set too high, so I’ll take this as an opportunity to tease the Ravens to +3.5 and take the under 47. This game should be low-scoring, close, and come down to a field goal. I have the Ravens winning by three and if they lose this game, it should be by a mere field goal.

Prediction: Ravens 20 – 49ers 17

Pick Against the Spread: Teaser Ravens +3.5/Under 47 (Confidence: 3/5)



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