It’s never easy picking playoff games, so I usually tread lightly throughout the playoffs. Most of the picks last week were low-confidence plays. In the last two years, the underdogs went 6-2 ATS in the Wild Card round, so I decided to play the trend and take the dogs this past week. Taking the dogs ended up 1-3 with Tim Tebow getting the sole cover.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The books are giving much love to the 49ers and their top-ranked defense that gives up just 14.3 PPG (10.9 PPG at home). I think you’ll actually see the Saints punt at least once this game (unlike last game). That’s right, not a single punt from the Saints last game. Despite how good the 49ers defense is, I don’t think you see the 49ers hold the Saints to less than 24 points. However, there is a dramatic drop in PPG for the Saints when they travel. The Saints average about 41 PPG at home, but just 24 PPG on the road. That’s something to be concerned about. I actually think the bye weeks hurts the 49ers hurts more than it helps them since the Saints are coming into this game with a ton of momentum following their dominating win over the Lions last week. I’m going with the Saints this week and think you see them win by 7.
Prediction: Saints 27 – 49ers 20
Pick Against the Spread: Saints -3.5 (Confidence: 3/5)
DENVER BRONCOS (+13.5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Granted, New England beat up on Denver just a few weeks ago 41-23, but it’s a whole new day for Tim Tebow and the Broncos. I will take the points mainly because I want to root for Tim Tebow and hate the Patriots, but I do think they have a legitimate shot at covering the spread. The reason I think the Broncos have a shot is because New England’s defense sucks. Another reason I think the Bronocs have a shot at this game is that the Patriots are defeatable if you can pressure Tom Brady. I loved what I saw from Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller last week and think you’ll see them bring the pressure again this week. A final reason for this pick is that Tim Tebow loves Jesus more than Tom Brady and God will help him with this game. If Tebow was Atheist, he would clearly be one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. I don’t think there is any debating this.
Prediction: Patriots 35 – Broncos 24
Pick Against the Spread: Broncos +13.5 (Confidence: 2/5)
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