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WEEK 5 – THE FINAL WORD

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 7th, 2012 | Comment »

Your boy Brandon Phillips is back! He had a 4-1 ATS record on Saturday with Utah State, Clemson, NC State, and Notre Dame. He essentially went as far as calling out an NC State upset over the #4 Florida State Seminoles. In the previous week he hit 2-of-3. 6-2 ATS in the last two weeks… well done sir. He could have even went 5-0 ATS this week if he would have hit on Missouri, but Missouri lost their starting QB in the first quarter of the game and their backup was completely worthless.

Last week, my NFL picks went 10-4 ATS, my best weekly record of the season. A lot of home dogs have been spoiling everyone’s picks in the first three weeks, but the road favorites got back to domination last week. I tried sticking with home favorites last week who let me down, and I passed on some road favorites that I wanted to take, but my teaser picks kept me in the game. I then hit back-to-back winners in the night games thanks to  Bears (+3.5) and Rams (+2).  If you would read my writes ups from those games, the key points being made were spot on.

Heading into Sunday, my favorite pick is the Chicago Bears (-5) over Jacksonville Jaguars. When you have the 32nd ranked offense vs. the 3rd ranked defense, the Jaguars should be hard-pressed to score. I expect the Bears to attack the Jaguars like they attacked the Cowboys and the Jaguars offense should be completely shut down. They’ll maybe score 10 points tops. I have faith in Cutler, Forte, and Marshall to take care of business on the road and put this one away in the 3rd quarter for a comfortable cover. I’m also hedging my bets as I’m pairing the Bears with the Texans in a teaser, in case both teams escape with a fieldgoal win.

The Packers (-7) over the Colts is another game worth looking to at 1:00. I have a play on them against the spread and then paired them in a teaser with the Vikings over Titans so the spread in those games isn’t a factor. On Monday Night, I love the Texans (-9) over the Jets as I don’t see how the Jets will be able to score, just like we saw last week when they faced the 49ers. The Jets have the league’s 27th ranked offense and will be facing the league’s best defense. I like any pathetic offense vs. elite defense matchup and this week we have two mismatches that I hope to take advantage of. Santonio Holmes is out and both Stephen Hill and Dustin Keller are doubtful. Only concern here is that those games are being played on the road. The last time we had a pathetic offense vs. elite defense matchup of this sort was week 1 in the Texans (-10) vs. Dolphins, which I took down hard. I had the opportunity to do the same last week with the 49ers vs. Jets, but I passed after being struck with fear by the home dog.

I flip-flopped on my Patriots vs. Broncos pick. I am now going with Broncos (+7). If you have the ability to buy a half-point, you can push the line to Broncos (+7) (-130), which is worth the extra juice in my opinion. I’ll give the Broncos a 33% chance of winning outright, a 42% chance of losing this game, but covering the spread, and a 25% chance of losing by more than 7 points. Peyton Manning looked crisp last week and his defense will keep this one close. Another plus is that Rob Gronkowski is extremely banged up and is far from 100%. I think you’re getting a lot of value with the points as this game should be within 1 score throughout the game and will likely come down to a field goal.

I have one last fun 8-team, 7-point teaser for you to throw into your Sunday card with a nice 10:1 payout: Packers, Bears (+2), Bengals (+3.5), Vikings (+1), Ravens (+0.5), Giants (-1.5), 49ers (-3), and Texans (-2). It looks great on paper. Hopefully, those teams come through and no upsets bust up that teaser card.

Good luck this week gentlemen. Bet with honour [sic].

Which road favorite is the best to take in week 5?

  • Bears (-5) over Jaguars (37%, 24 Votes)
  • Texans (-9) over Jets (34%, 22 Votes)
  • Packers (-7) over Colts (22%, 14 Votes)
  • Ravens (-6.5) over Chiefs (8%, 5 Votes)

Total Voters: 65

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