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TEXANS VS. JETS – THE FINAL WORD

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 8th, 2012 | Comment »

Post-Game Thoughts: The forum trolls can bask in glory as the Jets got the cover. The kicker was a 100-yard kickoff return for them in the 3rd quarter that lifted the Jets into the money. I would rather take the Texans and say they should have covered instead of speculating on the Jets solely as a situational play when there’s the prospect of them getting hammered by the Texans.  Overall, a solid week for me thanks to the Bears (-5). I had the Texans in a teaser with the Bears just in case the scenario played itself out that the Texans win, but don’t cover. The teaser mitigates some of the damage there.

Pre-Game Thoughts: I’m reading the thread on the Texans vs. Jets game at Covers.com to see what people are saying. A lot of people over there are liking Jets (+9) on the theory that since they’ve played so bad over the last few weeks, that it’s destined that they’ll show up tonight and cover this spread, or even win outright.

Forget that the Jets performance over the last three weeks has been a complete joke and that they’re facing the best defense in the league — they claim that Mark Sanchez will have a career game (against the best defense in the league)  just because the media is busting his balls. You know who else is getting his balls busted? Michael Vick. But that doesn’t stop him from being a turnover machine and a complete liability every time the ball is in his hands.  The comments there are completely laughable. I’m still waiting to come across somebody stating that the group Jeremy Kerley, Chaz Shillens and Clyde Gates is the most underrated wide receiving corp in the NFL.

Listen, you know it’s a risk to take road favorites against home dogs, especially on Monday Night and when the home team is getting 9 points. However, I can’t ignore a mismatch of this caliber. I pounded the Chicago Bears (-5) over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday based solely on the fact that you have the 3rd ranked defense vs. 32nd ranked offense. That seemed to work out pretty well as the Bears won 41-3. Tonight we have the 1st ranked defense vs. the 27th ranked offense. The Jets are also without their top three players in their passing game in Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill, and Dustin Keller. Shonn Greene will carry the ball 20 times for 60 yards. I don’t see him as a threat.

My favorite comment is I rather say after this game that “Texans should of covered” rather than “why the hell did I bet on the Jets.” If you want to take the Jets, be my guest. I know 9 points is a lot to lay on the road on Monday Night, but I can’t ignore this mismatch. Sure, this pick may scream suckers pick, but the same people calling for the Jets to cover probably also liked Browns +9, Jaguars +6, and Bills +10 this week — and they all got rocked!

This is a statement game for both teams, not just the Jets people. Texans have never beaten the Jets? That’s your compelling argument? Their matchup history means absolutely nothing — they’re not in the same division. Schaub is 1-3 on Monday Night? Meaningless. It’s too hard to reach 5-0? Ask the Falcons about doing that and covering on the road. Jets will cover because they are desperate? Laughable. You know who else is desperate for a win? The Cleveland Browns — but that didn’t stop them from getting their ass kicked on Sunday to drop to 0-5.

Taking the Jets and the points is pure speculation rather than taking in what we’ve seen from these teams in the last four weeks and making an informed decision. Does everything have to go right for the Texans to cover? Not necessarily. The Texans can cover without forcing a single turnover as long as they’re strong on 3rd down. The +9 may look good for the first two quarters, as this one may be 13-6 at halftime, but this game will be all about the 2nd half and the Jets won’t have enough to stop the Texans in 60 minutes of play.

1st ranked defense vs. 27th ranked offense. Blow out city boys. 49ers style.

Prediction: Texans 27 – Jets 6

Pick Against the Spread: Texans -9 (Confidence: 8/10)

Live Betting Update: Houston opens the game with an 85-yard drive capped off with a 35-yard TD to Owen Daniels in under 4 minutes. Hedged my bets with Jets moneyline at +800 in case the Jets pull a rabbit out of their hat and Tim Tebow summons the power of Christ.



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