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Thursday Night Pick: Seahawks vs. 49ers

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 18th, 2012 | Comment »

What a wild week it was in Week 6. Tons of upsets and a very good week for the dogs. I took Ravens (-3) as my top play and missed  by a point when the Cowboys scored a touchdown in the last two minutes when the Ravens were holding an 8-point lead. The most significant upset last week was the Seahawks topping the Patriots in Seattle after scoring a TD in the last two minutes thanks to Russell Wilson chucking the deep ball to Sidney Rice who outright beat his man. The only upsets I can take pride in nailing were the Browns over Bengals, Giants over the 49ers, and Bills over Cardinals.

SEATTLE SEAHAKWS (+8) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The NFC West is up for grabs tonight. The public is pretty much split on this one 50/50. I like taking the points as Seattle’s D is the real deal and should keep the game close. The Seahawks D is ranked 2nd in points allowed with a stingy 15.5 PPG and 4th in yards allowed. They’ve faced some strong offenses to boot — Green Bay, Dallas, New England, and Carolina.

San Fran’s offense looked terrible last week against the Giants. However, they’ve put up some solid offensive performances on occasion (vs. Bills, @ Jets, @ Packers). I think the 49ers have their struggles against the Seahawks defense. However, they may go off playing at home. The risk in taking the Seahawks is if the 49ers defense absolutely dominates this game. The 49ers gave up 3 points to the Bills and 0 points the Jets. They can be lights out.

The trends favor San Fran in this one: Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in San Fran in the last 7, the home team is 5-1 ATS head-to-head, and 49ers are 21-8-3 ATS at home. San Fran won this one 33-17 last year in San Francisco, but the 49ers came out with just a 19-17 win in Seattle.

To examine this game from a situational perspective, the edge goes to the 49ers. The 49ers are mad as hell after getting embarrassed by the Giants and the Seahawks are coming off a huge win over the Patriots, which sets up a let-down game for the Seahawks and a bounce-back game for the 49ers.

The over/under is 37.5. When we have two defenses like these and lackluster offenses, that under looks like a good play. You could use that as an opportunity to take the 49ers straight up or Seattle (+14.5) to pair with the under 44.5.

This is a tough one here. I say you tease the 49ers and Under 44.5 or go with the Seahawks (+8) or Seahawks (+15) with the Under 44.5. It’s a matter of personal preference. I’ll give a slight lean on the Seahawks with the (+8) and say that San Fran wins by 3-7, but a 49ers domination can be brewing.

Prediction: 49ers 20 – Seahawks 13

Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks +8 (Confidence: 5/10)

Teaser Pick: 49ers and Under 44.5 (Confidence: 6/10)

 



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