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NFL Thanksgiving Day Football Special

Posted by in NFL Picks on November 22nd, 2012 | Comment »

NFL Week 12 PicksHappy Thanksgiving everyone! We have very much to be thankful for in November. So far this month we have gone 28-14 ATS. November has simply been our strongest month year in and year out and has padded our pockets full of cash.

Houston Texans (-3) over DETROIT LIONS — Confidence: 8/10 — Thanks to the Texans near loss to the Jaguars at home last week, we are getting a very favorable spread for this game. 72% of the public is taking the Texans and that’s who I like in this one. Eliminate last week’s outlier against the Jags and the Texans have had one of the top defenses in the league right up there with the Bears and 49ers. The Lions have been very disappointing this season with a 4-6 SU and ATS record. The Lions are coming off back-to-back losses to the Packers and Vikings. Detroit hasn’t even been a strong team at home this season. They are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Texans, on the other hand, have played well on the road going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. Earlier this season, the Lions played very well against the run, but that’s slipped in the last few weeks. The Lions have given up 4.95 YPC in the last four weeks and if that continues to be the case today, Arian Foster is going to have a big day, the Texans will control the clock, and dominate this football game. The Lions may also be without their starting left tackle. The left tackle is the most important position on the football field in my opinion as it protects the quarterback’s blind side. The Eagles have been without their starting Pro Bowl left tackle and see how that worked out for them this season. I think you see the Texans win this one by 7-10 points.

Washington Redskins (+3.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS — Confidence: 6/10 — Last week I took Browns (+8) over Dallas and the Browns nearly pulled off the outright win. The Cowboys have been a huge disappointment this season. For whatever reason, their offense just hasn’t been clicking and their defense should be playing at a higher level. I like taking the points since this is a division game, which tend to be very close. Last season when these teams faced each other, Dallas won both games, but they were razor-close, 27-24 and 18-16. The previous year was also close, 33-30 Dallas and 13-7 Washington. The Cowboys are just 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS at home this season. The Redskins are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road. The Redskins have covered 4 straight against the Cowboys. I think there is a good chance that those trends don’t stand up as the Cowboys seem due for a big home win, but the Redskins (+3.5) may be worth a small play.

New England Patriots (-7) over NEW YORK JETS — Confidence: 6/10 — I usually shy away from betting on division games, especially when you give up a lot of points. In division games, you’re best served taking the points because they’re almost always close regardless of the disparity in the teams’s strengths. See the Texans vs. Jaguars game last week. The worst team in the league nearly beat a top 5 football team on their own turf. When this one was played in New England earlier this season, I took Jets (+9) and the Jets nearly won. The Jets had the Patriots on the ropes until the Patriots tied it to take it into overtime and then got the win. Going into that game, I felt the Jets were picking up some momentum. This time around, the Patriots clearly have momentum on their side while the Jets morale is at a season low. The Patriots absolutely crushed their opponents in the last four weeks and the Jets have lost their last 3-of-4. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS on the road and the Jets are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS at home. I’m quite confident in the Patriots getting the outright win, but the Jets may put up another fight and keep this one close. I would tease the Patriots down to a pick ’em to pair with Texans (+4). If you are looking at this line right before kickoff, I think a teaser of Patriots/Over 41.5 is the way to go.

Good luck this week and Happy Thanksgiving!

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