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Week 17 – Picks Against the Spread (2012)

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 29th, 2012 | 3 Comments

nfl-week-17-predictions-picksIt’s the last week of NFL regular season action. I’m not too crazy about any individual games. Week 17 can be unpredictable when teams don’t have anything to play for except pride. I think the strategy this week is to utilize teasers on teams that are big favorites and are playing for playoff position. Broncos (-9), Patriots (-3.5), Seahawks (-3.5), 49ers (-9.5), and Texans are all games which I like with the line teased down. The Saints and Steelers are two individual spreads that I think are worth taking. Good luck this week and when you bet on SuperBowl.

Baltimore Ravens (+1) over CINCINNATI BENGALS — Both teams are in the playoffs and the playoff seeds are pretty much set. You don’t know what kind of effort you’ll get from the teams when playoff position has pretty much been determined. The Bengals are locked in the 6th seed and the Ravens aren’t able to play for a 1st-round bye.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS over Cleveland Browns — No line is released but I really like the Steelers in this one. Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden are out. Neither team has anything to play for but pride.I’ll take Steelers anything less than a touchdown.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+7) over Houston Texans — This is a tough one as the Colts locked up a wild card and will be playing on the road in the playoffs regardless of the outcome here. The Texans are playing for home-field advantage. If the Texans lose, the Patriots or Broncos could secure home-field advantage in the playoffs. I believe that the Colts will give a solid effort and try to win this game to enter the playoffs with momentum. The Texans should win this game and I would rather tease the Texans down to pair with another team, but I’ll take the Colt (+7) and expect an outcome of a Texans win by 3-4 points.

TENNESSEE TITANS (-4) over Jacksonville Jaguars — Nothing to play for but pride and I’ll take the Titans at home over their weak division foe.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-7) over Philadelphia Eagles — The Giants need a lot of help to get into the playoffs. They need the Cowboys, Vikings, and Bears to lose, which is certainly possible. The Cowboys are on the road in Washington, the Vikings take on the Packers, and the Bears are on the road in Detroit. The Eagles have been playing better lately, but as an Eagles fan, I’m expecting them to drop this one.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3.5) over New York Jets — The Jets have won 6 straight against Buffalo and in 4 of those games, it’s been by 10+ points. I’m going to have to go against their matchup history and go with the Bills.

Chicago Bears (-3) over DETROIT LIONS — If the Vikings lose to the Packers, the Bears clinch a playoff spot with a win. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions crush the Bears playoff hopes, but I’m going to put faith in the Bears defense and my boy Brandon Marshall to get the W.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over ATLANTA FALCONS — No line on this game yet. The Falcons locked up the No. 1 seed so I expect the Falcons to rest their starters and let the Bucs to get the win.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-4.5) over Carolina Panthers — The Saints met the Panthers last year in week 17 and the result was Saints 45 – Panthers 17. The Panthers offense didn’t look too solid last week against the Raiders. Although Carolina topped the Saints at home this season 35-27. The Saints have been rolling the last two weeks posting 34 and 41. I’m expecting the Saints to lay the smack down in their home finale.

DENVER BRONCOS (-16) over Kansas City Chiefs — I was going to go Chiefs solely on the line being too high, but the Broncos are the hottest teams in the NFL right now, are at home, and can clinch the No. 1 seed if the Texans lose to the Colts. I don’t see how the Chiefs score much on this Broncos defense as the Chiefs have only scored more than 10 points twice in their last 10 games. Manning will be throwing darts on the Chiefs defense and the Broncos should be good for 4 TDs. Broncos 31 – Chiefs 10.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS over Oakland Raiders — No line is released yet, but I like Chargers anything under a touchdown.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-16.5) over Arizona Cardinals — The 49ers need to win this one to clinch the NFC West. They beat the Cardinals 24-3 in Arizona earlier in the road. The 49ers will be playing pissed off after last week’s debacle in Seattle. I don’t expect the Cardinals to score more than 7. Half the public likes the points and it is tempting since the line is so high.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over St. Louis Rams — The Seahawks can with the AFC West with a win and a 49ers loss. The Seahawks are looking like a very dangerous team after winning in three straight blowouts. They rocked the 49ers 42-13 last week, beat the Bills 50-17 the week before, and the Cardinals 58-0 the week before that. They are the true meaning of determination… BEAST MODE!

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS — The Packers need to win this one to clinch the No. 2 seed. The Vikings need to win this one to clinch the No. 6 seed. The public is split here 50/T. The Packers beat the Vikings 23-14 four weeks ago in Green Bay. Last season the Packers beat the Vikings 33-27 in Minnesota. The Packers have the weapons to get this done. The Vikings just have Adrian Peterson and the legs are getting tired.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-10.5) over Miami Dolphins — The Patriots look to land the No. 3 seed, but can sneak into a No. 1 or No. 2 if the Texans and Broncos lose. Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in New England. 64% of the public likes the Patriots in this one. When you have Brady at home in December jocking for playoff position, that’s who I’ll take. Good game to tease down.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3) over Dallas Cowboys — This is the NFC East Championship folks. The public is split here 50/50. I’m taking the Redskins as they simply have the Cowboys number. I took them earlier this season when the game was played down in Dallas and the Redskins won 38-31. However, Dallas will be more prepared for RGIII this time around. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS against Dallas in their last 5 games, but the Redskins were the team getting points in all of those games. I really want to see RGIII in the playoffs and a Redskins vs. Seahawks matchup is guaranteed if both teams win this week. Dallas may be the play at (+3.5), but personal bias has me wanting the Skins to win this one.

Which team will win the SuperBowl?

  • Broncos (32%, 13 Votes)
  • Patriots (24%, 10 Votes)
  • Packers (15%, 6 Votes)
  • The Field (12%, 5 Votes)
  • Texans (7%, 3 Votes)
  • 49ers (7%, 3 Votes)
  • Falcons (2%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 41

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3 Responses to Week 17 – Picks Against the Spread (2012):

  1. Rich H

    Date: Dec 29, 2012 at 1:31 pm

    You do a great job and receive so little feedback. This was your best year for
    quality analysis and picks, despite losing a little zip towards the end of the season.
    The probability points you assigned to your picks did not go unnoticed. Thanks for what you provide, I am sure many enjoy it as much, maybe they are always at the bank making deposits because of you. Happy New Year.

  2. Pete

    Date: Dec 29, 2012 at 1:53 pm

    I agree,
    You do a great job. I’m always looking forward to your picks each week, they have been awesome this year overall!
    Any chance you will be posting more bowl games today!?..I’m having trouble picking for myself on many of these.

    Much appreciated!

  3. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 30, 2012 at 2:05 pm

    Thanks for the comments. It’s been a hell of season. My apologies for not being as diligent at the end of the season. Work/family gets busy around the holidays. Brandon should be posting more Bowl picks today. We’ll be looking to finish strong in the Bowl games and NFL Playoffs.

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