NFL Saturday Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread – January 12, 2013

It is the NFL Divisional Round and the pick ’em league remains in a dog fight. I’m tied in 1st with two other teams. Last week my picks went 3-1 ATS. I was pulling for the Redskins and should have went with my head which was telling me the Seahawks would win.  This week is a much tougher week. I don’t like the lines as much as I did last week, so I’m not going to go as large as I did last week. On Saturday, I’m going with the MVP QBs — Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

DENVER BRONCOS (-9.5) over Baltimore Ravens

I’m very confident that Peyton Manning will get the W, but it’s a steep spread against the Ravens defense. I’m expecting a lower-scoring game this time around. Last week no team scored more than 24 points. The defenses have dominated, the weather has been cold, and the scores have been low. I would tease this spread to Broncos (-2.5) with Patriots (-2.5) before taking Broncos (-9.5). You can also tease the over/under from 45 to 52 to take Denver (-2.5)/Under 52.

Broncos have won 11 straight and beat the Ravens 34-17 on December 16th, but this game will be very different from that December 16th contest. The bottom line for me is Peyton Manning vs. Joe Flacco, who would you rather bet on? I’ll take Peyton Manning at home minus the chalk. Joe Flacco will have a tough time against the Broncos defense and will be constantly be pressured by Dumervil and Von Miller. Flacco sucks on the road and has yet to win a big game. However, the cold weather could keep the score low and give the Ravens a chance to cover the +9.5 if their defense steps up.

PICK: Broncos -9.5 (Confidence: 7/10)

TEASER PICK:  Broncos -2.5/Under 52 or Broncos -2.5/Patriots -2.5

PREDICTION: Broncos 24 – Ravens 13

Green Bay Packers (+2.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

This is another game that I have to pick solely based on quarterbacks. Kaepernick has been solid, but who would you rather let your money ride on, Aaron Rodgers or Colin Kaepernick? I’ll take Aaron Rodgers, especially considering that he has all of his receivers back. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb will be playing today.

The 49ers beat the Packers in Green Bay opening week 30-22, but I’m expecting a different outcome this time around. These are completely different teams at this point in the season. The Packers finished the season strong as the 49ers faded away. 49ers were 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in their final 5. Packers were 5-1 SU and ATS in their final 6.

PICK: Packers +2.5 (Confidence: 7/10)

PREDICTION: Packers 27 – 49ers 24