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COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS:
I just didn’t feel any games warranted a 1 unit play last week.  There were a few games I liked, but nothing worth potentially losing money over.  Back at it this week with 4 picks.

UCLA/OREGON UNDER 61 for 1 unit. Both teams off a bye week having plenty of time to analyze film and review play schemes to ready their defenses for this contest.  Oregon’s D has been unreal at home only giving up an average of 10pts per contest.  UCLA, while not as talented, has been average for most college squads giving up 26pts per contest.  UCLA’s offense has been overall pretty inefficient and I don’t expect that offense to improve here tonight on the road verse a well rested and prepared Oregon D.  In my opinion the only way you can bet this game over is if you think Oregon can score over 61 by themselves because Oregon does have the talent to post a shutout at home.  UCLA’s D will be well tested, but should be pretty prepared for this contest.  Final score Oregon 44 UCLA 10.

Alabama (-16.5) at Tennessee for 2 units. They win by 40. Enough said.

UCONN at LOUISVILLE (-1.5) for 1 unit. I got this game at +2. It opened at +1.5 and then moved to +2 so I waited to post this, but when I saw it start to fall I jumped on it, but by the time of posting it was at -1.5.  I think they win outright easily.  More write up to follow if I have time.

Indiana (+13.5) at Illinois for 1 unit. Illinois may overlook this IU squad, …

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Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a …

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Coming off a strong college Saturday, hitting 2 of 3 top plays, including my play of the year on UTEP, I handicapped the NFL card and found a couple strong plays that I feel will help improve that bankroll.

Seattle vs St. Louis (+2) for 1 unit.  WINNER

Both teams come into Sunday looking to capitalize on last week’s impressive wins, Seattle over San Diego and St. Louis over the Redskins.  I see value here with St. Louis as they continue to play better each week.  Bradford has been way better than I ever imagined and should take advantage of a weak and injured pass defense in Seattle.  They are giving up over 300yds passing per and they come into Week 4 with injuries to their starting CB and LB.  Seattle’s D was dominated by San Diego last week, but was bailed out by great special teams play.  Both teams should put some points on the board, but I will give the edge to the hot QB and slightly better defense with St. Louis.

Arizona vs San Diego (-9) for 1 unit. WINNER

SD continues to get off to a slow start for like the 3rd or 4th straight year, but just when people begin to count them out they come away with an impressive performance to remind everyone that the West is theirs! Arizona comes into SD after a terrible performance vs the lowly Raiders last, but they somehow managed to pull out the win.  SD also comes in off a terrible special teams effort giving up 2 kick returns.  SD will look to go to the air more often this week and establish the pass to open up …

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Last week was tough as I started the day 3-0 and then finished 0-3 with my top play dropping the ball, literally 4x in the 4th quarter. Now down 3.8 units on the year, but it is still early in the year. This weekend I am coming with Top 2 Plays of the Year.

PLAY OF THE YEAR #1: UTEP (-14.5) vs. New Mexico for 2 UNITS: WINNER

Last week everyone I knew was all over UTEP vs Memphis and they simply did not bring it barely winning. However, New Mexico  is a totally different team then Memphis and I expect a 4 touchdown blowout on Saturday by UTEP. Looking at the numbers, UTEP has a clear advantage both offensively and defensively. UTEP rushes for 175yds per contest, while NM gives up over 220yds per contest. Once UTEP has established the run, which they clearly will, the passing game will open wide up.  UTEP is passing for almost 250yds per contest while NM has not been able to even slow down any passing game they have faced giving up just under 300yds per.  Defensively, while not great, UTEP has been solid against the run and pass, but more importantly NM has not been able to produce any form of offense only scoring an avg of 10pts per contest. UTEP comes ready to play this weekend and wins going away 42-17.

ARIZONA ST (+3.5) vs Oregon State for 2 units. WINNER

AzSt has been very impressive so far this year losing narrowly to both Wisconsin and Oregon. Even though they were predicted to finish 9th in the PAC10 they are clearly better than that this year. OSt …

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After last weekend we are  moving in the right direction with 1.4 units of profit, bringing my overall loss to 2.6 units for the year. As a recent poster said, this a marathon and I have been known to finish strong so I have no problems with the slow start.

Week 4: I am releasing my plays very early as I want you to get the best line as possible. I will give detailed analysis of each game, but these are the games I am on. One thing before the pick, I have not had time to do a detailed analysis of suspensions or injuries, but I am not aware of any major issues in any of these games.

The Plays:

South Carolina (+3) vs Auburn for 2 units. This game lines up with several other games I am playing this week. One thing I like to look for, especially with underdogs, is comparing what the two teams do well and where are the weaknesses.  Both defenses are stout so this should be a low scoring affair.  Auburn rushes the ball very well going for over 250 yds. per contest.  However, SC’s run defense has been a wall, giving up only an average of 60 yds on the ground.  Look for a real defensive battle on that line when Auburn attempts to establish that rushing attack, got to give the advantage to SC with that incredible defense.  Auburn’s D, while impressive, is giving up an average of 21 points per (26, 14, 24) while SC’s D has given up an average of 12 (13, 6, 19).  SC’s offense has done a great job of controlling the …

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After we started the day last Saturday 2-2 we had a great chance to end the day with a profit, but UAB failed miserably in the 2nd half, leaving me down 4 units for the season. There is still a lot a research to be done for the week ahead, but a couple games I am getting on early and I think you should too.

Boise St (-24) at Wyoming: My forte does not come in the form of playing road favorites, as documented through my time here at thepassrush, but this is a must play for me. Boise St pulled out the dramatic outright win over VT in week 1 and as I have stated several times this is BSU’s best chance at winning the National Title and there was no better way to start the season than with a solid win over a nationally ranked and recognized program. However, VT forgot that their season wasn’t over and needed to show up in week 2 and suffered the worst defeat in school history. The important question is where does that leave BSU? Without VT’s loss, BSU still needed and needs to dominate the rest of their schedule and if you think that BSU’s Coach doesn’t know the line for this game at Wyoming you are nuts. For BSU to have any chance at the National Title it is now more important than ever for them to absolutely blow teams out. Even one weak game against a weak opponent means they will not be playing in the Title game. Therefore, I fully expect BSU to win by 40+ in the game against Wyoming.

The Play: BSU (-24) for 1 unit. …

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Current Record:

1. South Carolina Winner for 1 unit

2. Western Michigan Push

3. Washington Loss for 1.1 units

4. Missouri Loss for 1.1 units

5. Teaser (2to1 odds) Maryland, Boise State, and Over Winner for 2 units

Overall Profit 0.8 units

Week 2:

1. South Florida +15 at Florida: Overreaction beware! There are several games this week where there seems to be an overreaction.  For example Oklahoma vs. FSU, Memphis vs. ECU, and USF v UF.  Teams that played poorly or extremely well in week 1 are now either favored by more or less than you would have expected going into week 1. In the game at hand, Florida played very poorly in the opener. However, that was expected by most.  There are going to be some growing pains for this Gator team and their poor play on Saturday didn’t surprise me at all. I do expect to see much better play for all critical positions this week verse USF.  However, USF is a team that I fully expect to have one of their best years.  I think USF has a great chance to win this game outright. They return most of their squad from a year ago. They do have a new coach this year, Skip Holtz, and he gets the most out of his squads and I expect much of the same in South Florida this year.  Look for USF to keep this game close throughout and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an upset here.

The Play: South Florida +15 for 1 unit

Kent St (+17.5) at Boston College: A well balanced offensive attacking Kent State team travels to BC for a game …

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