Football Picks Against the Spread

Last week we went 4-2 (including MNF) for 2.7 units of profit. Looking to keep those strong plays rolling I am releasing two strong 2 unit plays this week and a 1 unit play. Read on for the top plays.

EAST CAROLINA VS SO. MISS (-8) for 2 UNITS:

After making my lines for this game, I conservatively had So Miss as a 14pt home chalk. Therefore I see a good deal of value in So Miss this week. After a tough loss at home to South Carolina to start the year this team has been rock solid going 3-0 SU and ATS at home.  They continue to dominate weak opponents.  So Miss should be able to take advantage of ECU’s terrible defense, giving up almost 200yds rushing and over 270yds passing.  So Miss’s balanced attack, over 180yds rushing and 220yds passing, will easily take advantage of many mismatches on both sides of the ball. Look for So Miss to roll 37-17.

Oregon State vs ARIZONA (-8) for 2 UNITS: Again my numbers totally disagree with the Vegas Line as I have Arizona a 17pt favorite. Oregon State has played a brutal schedule facing TCU, Boise State, and AzSt already this year and as you saw last week at the end of the game they are running out of gas, almost losing in the last few minutes to AzSt. I see Az exploiting OregonSt primarily through the air as Az has been throwing for 300yds per contest. Oregon State comes in flat and leaves with a good thumping 35-17.

MICHIGAN ST (+4.5) AT Michigan for 1 UNIT: If this game was being played on a neutral field I would have this game as MSU -1, but with it being in …

NFL Week 5 Picks for 1:00 Games

Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns

Cleveland hosts Atlanta Sunday afternoon with both teams coming off a win. Cleveland has been one of the best teams ATS this year as well as last year. An offense lead by Matt Ryan was supposed to be the Falcons strength coming into this season, but their defense has been why they’ve won three in a row. Jake Delhomme isn’t the for sure starter yet, but he is going to have his hands full with this Falcon defense. The Falcons offense ranks sixth in the NFL averaging 389.3

Arian Foster has emerged as one of the league's best backs.

yards a game along with 23.3 points per game. Delhomme, if named the starter, had success against the Falcons last year throwing for 589 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in two games against them with Carolina. Peyton Hillis has been a key to the Browns even hanging around in all of their games, and was a huge key in their win last week against the Bengals. He is ranked 11th in the NFL against the run with 96.3 yards rushed a game.

I think Cleveland is going to come ready to play at home coming off a win. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home, and 7-1 in their last eight as a dog. Peyton Hillis is going to have another big game going over 100 yards rushing with at least one touchdown.

Prediction: Falcons 21 – Browns 20

Pick Against the Spread: Browns +3

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Ravens are coming off a huge win against the Steelers in Week Four. The Ravens have the #1 defense when it comes …

I am finally getting an article out to you guys before Saturday. This should give you time to do your own research and let my picks sink in. I hope you all took my Sunday night winner on the New York Giants (-3.5). I predicted the wrong score, but I got the ‘Giants by 17’ correct. That now makes me 7-4-0 on my NFL picks.

I am not doing every week 5 pick in the NFL, but I will give you some that stick out to me and I like. These will be in order from my strongest plays to my, well I wouldn’t say WEAK, but you get the point.

Get your free ticket

Game 1: Take the Buffalo Bills +1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Buffalo doesn’t even need the points in this game. They get their first win this week against the Jags. The Jags are coming off a huge victory against the Colts and watch them totally overlook this game. Jags rank 30th in opponents passing yards per game, I like Fitzpatrick to absolutely erupt in this game and win by a touchdown.

Game 2: Take the Washington Redskins +2.5 against the Green Bay Packers.

This is a big game for the Washington Redskins coming in at 2-2 and look to stay on pace with the rest of the NFC East. Even thought the Skins have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, the Pack have virtually no run game. Washington will key on Rodgers and the passing game. Now Washington is without Clinton Portis which scares me a little bit, but the offensive line played great against Philly and hopefully they keep that up as Washington will roll and cover the spread.

Game 3: …

Look for Brandon Marshall, Davone Bess, and Brian Hartline to make the Pats secondary look like it's amateur hour.

Yesterday The Kid picked the Giants (-3.5) as a winner and delivered. Somebody woke the sleeping Giants yesterday since the Giants were horrendous in their last two games. Vegas knew this would happen which is why the line clearly showed confidence in the Giants, which I pointed out in, and that’s the reason I stayed away from the Bears despite picking them myself. Being an Eagles fan, I tend to be bias when it comes to the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys, and that’s something I cannot shake. I figured that if Julius Peppers pressured Eli enough, he would have a horrendous game. Sometimes you need to pick games situationally rather than rely on past performance as yesterday was a “must win” game for the Gmen and they delivered for their fans.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-1) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

Tonight we have a home dog in the Miami Dolphins and a dubious line at Patriots (-1) begging everyone to take the Patriots. I picked the Dolphins at home on Sunday Night against the Jets last week and I paid for that one. The Monday Night factor is bigger than the Sunday Night factor and the Pats have some holes in their defense that they have to worry about, unlike the Jets, which is why I’m more confident in Miami this week.

This should be a great game. The over/under set at 48 seems interesting and I’m leaning over. I’m expecting both sides to put up a lot of points as this one has “potential shootout” written all over it. You know Tom Brady is going to show up and throw a couple …

Sorry fans, I have been away on business and am now just getting time to share my thoughts for tonight’s game.

The line is New York Giants (-3.5) against the Chicago Bears. I got the line at Giants (-3) which I love. When I first looked at this line I instantly knew what the odds-makers were going for. Undefeated Chicago Bears GETTING 3.5 points against the (1-2) New York Giants? I bet many of you love the undefeated Bears getting points and think that line is way off. Well news for you, it is right on point. I mean, sure, Giants have been playing terribly BUT tonight they will come together and Eli Manning will have a good night. Eli WILL NOT let his team get in the hole (1-3) and I see them winning tonight by a double digit amount. I see Cutler and Manning reversing roles tonight with Cutler throwing picks and Manning throwing TD passes. This should be  a great game to watch with so many weapons on both sides.

I apologize for getting this out so late, but I really like the New York Giants tonight at home with the points. Good luck to whomever you bet tonight!

Sunday Night Winner: Play on the Giants (-3.5) WINNER

Final Score: Giants 31 – Bears 17

Small play: Play on the OVER 44 in tonight’s contest.…

Look for Julius Peppers to force Manning into some bad decisions.

ATL and TEN didn’t pan out. I only played ATL since AJAY talked me out of the DEN pick. Thank you sir. You won that one. Well played. Orton is legit. I can’t believe this guy went from “let’s limit this guy to less than 20 throws so he doesn’t lose the game” to “let’s put the ball in his hands 50 times a game so he can win it.” Kyle Orton: the best QB not named Brady or Manning? Should we get used to it? I thought lightning couldn’t strike again for him and it did. Chris Johnson also had two costly fumbles.

In the ATL game, I apologize for not forecasting a blocked punt that led to a TD. Without that play, ATL would have had the cover. I warned everyone this morning to be cautious about those two plays. That’s why I hedged my bets and placed a small bet on the Rams after talking to Brandon this morning. He posted that pick up this morning along with San Diego, so in addition to two big winners on Saturday, he delivered two more big wins today. I followed him with the San Diego pick at 4:00, which I was also high on, and along with the Rams pick, made up for the Atlanta loss.

CHICAGO BEARS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (-3.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are favored by this much. They’ve been absolutely horrendous. Their defense, which is usually strong, has been abysmal, giving up 28 PPG. I can understand the Giants being favored since they’re at home and perhaps “due for a win” just like the Browns were “due for a win” this week and …

Will week 4 leave us flabbergasted? What surprises will happen this week?

Thanks to Brandon’s Play of the Year #1, I was able to have a solid Saturday in college football. If my memory serves me correct, Brandon’s “plays of the year” were 4-1 ATS last season (reference, see last year’s Auburn +10.5 over Alabama call). How do you like that call? So when he gives out a game like that, you should listen up. Brandon also hit on his 2nd play with Arizona State +3.5 over Oregon State thanks to a 4th quarter rally that got Arizona State in the money. Joey G’s pick in Nevada won well into double digits, but he layed 20.5 to take them and they came out by just 18 points. A missed touchdown on the goal line cost him that one. Tough defeat, but he’ll get them back.

As far as today’s action is concerned, I posted some updates for the 1:00 games. You’ll want to see what I have to add about the Falcons and Titans picks. I also switched my Saints pick to taking the Panthers and the points and you’ll see my reasons why. 13.5 is a ton of points. I’m counting on the Panthers to keep the game within reach. I gave it a mere 1/5 rating though since it’s the Saints at home and Jimmy Clausin is the QB so it’s not worthy of my money.

Brandon also likes Rams (+2) and Chargers (-8) and I concur. Although Steven Jackson was questionable and a game-time decision, it looks like he will be active which is another good reason to stick with the Rams at home vs. an awful road team in the Seahawks.…