SMART BET College Football Week 13
Posted by Brandon Phillips in College Football Picks on November 24th, 2009 | 9 CommentsOverall Profit 1.3 units
Back on track last week, going 3-2 for 0.8 units of profit. Really like a few games this week, starting with play on Tuesday night. I am also releasing my fourth play of the year this week on Auburn.
1.) Ball State at Western Michigan (-7) FIRST HALF for 1 unit. L for 1.1 units
2.) GAME OF THE YEAR RELEASE #4: Alabama at Auburn (+10.5) for 2 units. There are more than several reasons to love Auburn in this spot besides the fact that I am saying they will cover. First, one of the best bets so far this year in both college and the nfl is home dogs off a bye week. Auburn has been a totally different ball club at home this year. They are 6-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS at home this year. Their defense has not been the Auburn defense of old, but this Bama squad’s offense is poor. They have looked good against very weak teams, but not very good against average defenses. If there was ever a good spot for this Auburn defense to shine it would be here. This also sets up as a trap game for Alabama. Everyone is assuming they are playing Florida in the SEC Championship game to determine who plays for the National Title. Therefore, this is any easy look-ahead game for Bama. I really like this spot for Auburn and think they have a legitimate shot to pull the upset. Game of the Year Winner #3. W for 2 units. (I am 3-1 on GOY releases!)
3.) THANKSGIVING SPECIAL: Texas at Texas A&M (+21) for 1 unit. W for 1 unit.
4.) North Carolina at NC State (+6.5) for 1 unit. Another upset alert! W for 1 unit.
5.) Florida State (+24.5) at Florida for 1 unit. L for 1.1 unit.
6.) Syracuse at Connecticut (-13.5) for 2 units. Blowout special. They win by 4TDs. W for 2 units.
7.) Wake Forest at Duke (+4.5) for 1 unit. L for 1.1 unit.
8.) Missouri (-3) at Kansas for 1 unit. L for 1.1 unit.
9.) Arizona at Arizona State (+3.5) for 1 unit. W for 1 unit.
10.) New Mexico Sate (+11) at San Jose State for 1 unit.
11.) Utah State at Idaho (-3) for 1 unit.
Honestly, I think go 7-0 with the rest of the plays for this week. Absolutely in love with this card.
Other games released later.
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the Auburn game is a big rivalry game. Also Auburn has nothing to lose playing against a team that does. I think Auburn has been waiting for this game and preparing for it for awhile. Alabama better watch out in this one, I think it stays close but they still win. The key to Auburn winning this is getting up early so the confidence stays with them all game.
Starting off with some home underdogs I see.
I’m going to have to disagree with the Auburn game, especially as a game of the year. Sure they’re at home and this is a rivalry game, but I would not take them unless I’m getting at least 14 points.
I’ll also have to disagree with the NC State pick. North Carolina has been coming on strong in the last 4 weeks (W’s over BC, VT, Miami, and Duke) and NC State’s defense cannot stop anyone! UNC should put up at least 35 points, so NC State better be prepared to score a ton of points if they want to cover. I think UNC wins by about 10 points.
Florida is also likely to put up a ton of points on an FSU defense that can’t stop anyone either, but the 24.5 points is just too much to pass up on. I expect the final score to be something like 38-17, which would be a 21-point victory and the cover. 7/8 Covers.com experts like FSU in that one.
I obviously love betting against Syracuse, so the -13.5 when UCONN is at home is a GIFT!
I’m also on board, but hesitant with Texas A&M at 21 points. Texas is averaging 42.5 points! Texas should win by about 17, but I love starting that game 21-0 with an offense that scores an average of 39.8 PPG at home. A&M has been spotty though. Hung in there at home against Oklahoma State, but just got crushed by Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Texas Tech. I guess you can write those off as bad road performances though.
I have 3 more picks to look at:
1.) Rutgers -3 over LOUISVILLE
2.) Boston College -6 over MARYLAND
3.) GEORGIA TECH -7.5 over Georgia
im looking for 1 game 2 bet the farm on and double up my roll this weekend, is it the uconn game
Either UCONN or Auburn. I love both!
Taken a 3 team parlay today, Colorado +10 1/2 Tulsa -16 1/2 Pitt -1
I was going to put up Colorado +10.5 as one of my picks. They are at home where they upset Kansas and they also covered last week against Oklahoma State 31-28 when they were given 17.5 points! The reason I didn’t take this game is I think they have a really tough time scoring. Although the Nebraska offense may not score much, they have one of the best defenses in the NCAA, probably a top 5 defense, so I don’t see a whole lot of scoring from Colorado.
I do like Pittsburgh, which I just posted my pick for. You have to be careful on taking the road team in rivalry games, but they’re far better than WVU. I think they win in a close one and you can’t beat the -1 spread.
Tulsa should score a lot of points, but I hope their defense doesn’t let you down.
Good luck.
My other parlay is Pitt and Boise st, layin a couple g’s on it and the games to. Turkey on the table brotha.
You guys see the Colorado cover? along TD pass with no time left on the clock. These things are crazy. bout time i got one of those to go my way.