Football Picks Against the Spread

Coming off a strong college Saturday, hitting 2 of 3 top plays, including my play of the year on UTEP, I handicapped the NFL card and found a couple strong plays that I feel will help improve that bankroll.

Seattle vs St. Louis (+2) for 1 unit.  WINNER

Both teams come into Sunday looking to capitalize on last week’s impressive wins, Seattle over San Diego and St. Louis over the Redskins.  I see value here with St. Louis as they continue to play better each week.  Bradford has been way better than I ever imagined and should take advantage of a weak and injured pass defense in Seattle.  They are giving up over 300yds passing per and they come into Week 4 with injuries to their starting CB and LB.  Seattle’s D was dominated by San Diego last week, but was bailed out by great special teams play.  Both teams should put some points on the board, but I will give the edge to the hot QB and slightly better defense with St. Louis.

Arizona vs San Diego (-9) for 1 unit. WINNER

SD continues to get off to a slow start for like the 3rd or 4th straight year, but just when people begin to count them out they come away with an impressive performance to remind everyone that the West is theirs! Arizona comes into SD after a terrible performance vs the lowly Raiders last, but they somehow managed to pull out the win.  SD also comes in off a terrible special teams effort giving up 2 kick returns.  SD will look to go to the air more often this week and establish the pass to open up their solid run attack. Arizona  just has not been able …

Nevada Wolf Pack @ UNLV Rebels

I really like Nevada tonight. They’ve opened up to a perfect start not only their first four games but also going a perfect 3-0 ATS thus far. Their offense has been dominating averaging 44.8 points per game. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick has had a great start to the season and takes really good care of the ball, which is giving the Wolf Pack 242 pass yards per game.

Look for Nevada to keep the ball on the ground tonight.

Nevada has had a couple impressive back to back wins cruising to an easy victory against Cal in week three, then handling BYU 27-13 in week four. Last year Nevada smashed the Rebels 63-28 as only 6.5 point favorites.

UNLV, on the other hand, has only one win under their belt. They snapped their three game losing streak to open the year, beating New Mexico 45-10 last week. Their 45 points last week actually was more than the amount of points they scored in the first three weeks combined.

Look for Nevada to pound the ball on the ground this game. UNLV is allowing 161 running yards per game. Last year, that’s exactly how Nevada took it to them. The Wolf Pack accumulated 559 yards on the ground last season. If Nevada can keep racking up yards, look for an easy cover.

Trends:

• Nevada is 7-0 ATS in their last seven after a win.
• Nevada is 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
• Nevada is 4-1 in their last five non-conference games.
• Nevada is 7-2 in their last nine games overall.
• Nevada is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams.
• UNLV is 0-6 in their last six against a team with

Last week was tough as I started the day 3-0 and then finished 0-3 with my top play dropping the ball, literally 4x in the 4th quarter. Now down 3.8 units on the year, but it is still early in the year. This weekend I am coming with Top 2 Plays of the Year.

PLAY OF THE YEAR #1: UTEP (-14.5) vs. New Mexico for 2 UNITS: WINNER

Last week everyone I knew was all over UTEP vs Memphis and they simply did not bring it barely winning. However, New Mexico  is a totally different team then Memphis and I expect a 4 touchdown blowout on Saturday by UTEP. Looking at the numbers, UTEP has a clear advantage both offensively and defensively. UTEP rushes for 175yds per contest, while NM gives up over 220yds per contest. Once UTEP has established the run, which they clearly will, the passing game will open wide up.  UTEP is passing for almost 250yds per contest while NM has not been able to even slow down any passing game they have faced giving up just under 300yds per.  Defensively, while not great, UTEP has been solid against the run and pass, but more importantly NM has not been able to produce any form of offense only scoring an avg of 10pts per contest. UTEP comes ready to play this weekend and wins going away 42-17.

ARIZONA ST (+3.5) vs Oregon State for 2 units. WINNER

AzSt has been very impressive so far this year losing narrowly to both Wisconsin and Oregon. Even though they were predicted to finish 9th in the PAC10 they are clearly better than that this year. OSt has faced a brutal schedule so far this year already playing tough affairs verse …

You're Welcome!

I’m not going to pretend I did much homework on these games. I’m just scanning through the lines and point out what I find attractive. Here are some of my week 5 college football picks that I will want to look into later.

Week 5 Games I Like:

• MARYLAND (-8.5) over Duke — I love betting against Duke with their terrible defense.
• Temple (-6) over ARMY — Wins over respectable Connecticut and Central Michigan. They had Penn State on their heels in the first half of that game until Penn State fought back in the 2nd half. They’re a solid team. Brandon is leaning Army here at home, so you may want to go the other way.
• Georgia Tech (-10) over WAKE FOREST — I played FSU (-18) over WF last week and won comfortably. Wake Forest’s D is a joke, they give up 40 points per game, which is why I love betting against them.

Game to Watch This Weekend:

• Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Texas — The Red-River Rivaly! Texas is the team that I enjoy following, but they’ve been disappointing this year. Their offense is slacking.  Oklahoma’s D has struggled though so who knows what happens in this one. I would take Oklahoma, but I’m pulling for Texas.
• Miami (-3) @ Clemson — Nice ACC battle.
• Arizona State @ Oregon State (-3.5) — Watch two great Pac 10 offenses battle it out.
• Notre Dame (-3) @ Boston College — Classic Catholic School Battle! ND is due for a win right? BC has a great run D though.
• Stanford @ Oregon (-4.5) — Do you like offense? Tune in.

Good luck!…

Michael Vick has returned to being a superstar.

We’re back with our 4:00 picks. If you saw yesterday’s week 4 1:00 picks you saw that I’m high on the Atlanta Falcons (-7) over the San Fransisco 49ers. I also like the Tennessee Titans (-6.5) over the Denver Broncos, but I took some flak on that pick. The spread is steep and Kyle Orton has been as good as any QB in the league this year. You say Kyle Orton and I say Courtland Finnegan and Michael Griffin. Onto the week 4 picks.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-7) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I took the Eagles last week and took them pretty big so it was a glorious win for me and it was also great to see Michael Vick just dominate (highlights at the end). The popular pick here is the Colts seeing how they bounced back after their Texans loss with two double-digit wins over the Giants and Broncos. Everyone is going to think that they can do it again. I’m slightly hesitant because the Jags always keep it close with the Colts. Last year the Colts vs. Jags games were 35-31 and 14-12. Garrard is playing like crap though with a 66.7 QB rating on the year and Maurice Jone-Drew has been locked up and hasn’t seen the end zone once this year (true story). The Jags have also given up a ton of points. They generate zero pass rush and they can’t cover. That spells disaster if you’re playing Peyton Manning. I’m expecting Manning to have a field day here while the Jaguars continue to struggle to find points. Jags are the home dog and maybe they’re due to “bounce back,” but I don’t see it happening. This Jaguars team …

I'm liking ATL (-7) over SF and TEN (-6.5) over DEN this week at 1:00. An ATL/TEN teaser looks promising.

The theme of week 1 was don’t bet against home dogs, we cleaned up in week 2 with two home winners (GB and ATL), then last week we felt the wrath of the road dogs. Road dogs went 7-1 ATS. My 1:00 play was the Ravens (-11) which missed by 4. At 4:00 I chose to bet against the Jaguars at home and took my team the Philadelphia Eagles (-3) because I was that damn confident in Michael Vick and it made up for the Ravens loss. If I didn’t play the Eagles, I would have taken the Colts, which I plugged so hopefully you found some winners on Sunday. I also told you so stay away from the MNF game which was golden advice. Let’s week what games are in tap in week 4.

DENVER BRONCOS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (-6.5)

I’ll definitely pick the Titans here. I don’t see the Broncos having an answer for Chris Johnson and when the Titans have been forced to throw the ball, Vince Young has done very well. Young hasn’t had to throw the ball more than 20 times in a game this season thanks to CJ. Other than the Pittsburgh loss, he posted QB ratings of 105 and 142. I expect another solid game while CJ carries the offense to another W at home. Titans D has also been very strong and should give the Broncos fits. Denver is disadvantaged with the long road trip and playing at 1:00. West coast teams struggle on the road in 1:00 games and I love playing that angle and will have more to say on …

Texas A&M Aggies @ Oklahoma State Cowboys

We have a Big 12 match-up Thursday night with two undefeated teams. Both teams were on a bye week last week and it will be their first conference game. The past two meeting have been very high scoring, and Oklahoma State has come out on top in both winning 56-28 (as a 26 point favorite) and then winning last season 36-31 (as a 5 point favorite, pushing).

The Oklahoma State offense is too much for the Aggies' defense.

Both teams have very efficient offenses, as Oklahoma State actually ranks 2nd in the nation in passing yards this season. Oklahoma state crushed Tulsa in their last game 65-28, accumulating 722 total yards on offense, over half of those throwing the ball. Texas A&M snuck by Florida International 27-20 being a 29 point favorite, obviously not covering that spread due to the fact that they turned the ball over five times that game. Speaking of spreads, both teams are currently 2-1 ATS this season.

Texas A&M ranks 10th in the nation on defense, and will definitely have their hands full in this one. They have a great rush D, but are ranked 50th in the nation in pass D. QB Brandon Weeden for OK State is on absolute fire throwing 6 TDs with 0 INTs against Tulsa in their last contest. I hope OK State sees those stats and throws the ball all night. I don’t see them giving the ball to Kendall Hunter too much.

Texas A&M’s quarterback Jerrod Johnson is coming off a game where he threw the ball to the other team four times! Talk about having no confidence entering Thursday. OK State did let Tulsa get their passing yards, so maybe …