Football Picks Against the Spread

It's going to be a battle of two gunslingers tonight!

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-3) @ CHICAGO BEARS

Tonight is Monday Night Football and it’s time for a classic NFC North matchup as the Chicago Bears host the Green Bay Packers. Both teams are 2-0 to start the season. Bears come into this one 1-1 ATS, failing to cover at home against the Lions and following that up with a route over the Cowboys on the road. The Packers come in at 2-0 ATS with dominating wins over the Eagles and Bills.

As I keep exhausting ad naseum, beware of home dogs. Home dogs are 3-4 ATS this week and somewhere in the range of 9-6-3 ATS in the first two weeks. These low spreads a la Redskins (-3.5) @ Rams and 49ers (-2.5) @ Chiefs lure you in and that’s how the books will trap you. However, there are plenty of road favorites who came through this past week if you were fortunate enough to take the Eagles, Colts, Bengals, or Steelers.

I’m going to take the Packers here. They are just way too talented. Not only do they have a top 5 offense, but I would also place their defense in the top 5. They are a championship caliber team and seeing how the Saints have started this season, I think there is room to even argue that the Packers are currently the best team in the National Football League.

I am that high on the Packers after seeing first hand how their defensive players fly around. Not only do the Pack have A.J. Hawk and Nick Barnett to tie down their LBs, but they added Clay Matthews on the outside who has been an absolute beast to …

Road dogs screwed a lot of people going 7-1 ATS, while the home dogs go 3-4.

Yesterday was rather uneventful. My two “big games” were 1-1. I played the Ravens (-11) and Eagles (-3). Since I split those and hit two out of three from Saturday, I decided to place a small bet on the Sunday Night game just so the day wasn’t so boring coming out as a split. Good thing I kept that play small as I suggested since the Dolphins didn’t get the job done at home as I had anticipated.

Home teams has been my theme throughout the season and a lot of road dogs came out on top this week, going 7-1 ATS. Road dogs who covered this week: Jets, Cowboys, Falcons, Titans, Raiders, Browns, and Bills. 4 outright winners. 7 winners against the spread. Sole road dog that didn’t cover was the Lions (didn’t cover by 1 point). You do not see that often gentlemen.

Thanks to a handful of home dogs, I stayed away from most games just to see how well the home dogs would do this week. Like I said, this week will be our “experimental week.” The home dogs turned out to be 3-4 ATS. I’m sure the books are happy with that since the flood of money that was placed on Redskins, Chargers, and 49ers went to them. I at least warned you about those home dogs so hopefully you averted some losses if you were eying up those teams. I was lucky enough to play the Eagles (-3), who made up for the Ravens not covering the 11 points against the Browns. I was also high on the Bengals and Colts and …

Thanks to the Eagles (-3), I was able to make up some ground where the Ravens left me short ATS. I’m not crazy about tonight’s game. Tonight we have the Miami Dolphins (-2) hosting the New York Jets Sunday night with the over/under at 35.5. I’m going to make a small play on a teaser of Dolphins (+5) and Under 42.5. I’m going to keep it small. Not a pick that I love, but the Eagles made up some ground and I’m looking to keep that going. I’m expecting a tight boring defensive game.

Why do I like Miami? It’s in Miami, Revis is out, Calvin Pace is out, and Braylon Edwards got a DUI (team distraction).

Prediction: Dolphins 16 – Jets 13

Tonight’s Play: Teaser Miami (+5), Under 42.5 (Confidence: 2.5/5)

Site Note: Although we played the Eagles. The home dog theory turned out to be legit. You couldn’t say we didn’t warn the people who played the Redskins, 49ers, and Chargers. 3 defeats via home dogs when nobody saw it coming. Eagles, Steelers, Colts, and Bengals topped the home dogs though. Home dogs were 3-4 ATS this week. Like I said, it’s just something that must be considered.

Go watch Kenny Powers instead. Tonight. HBO. 10:30.

…

Can Vick lead the Eagles past the Jags?

The Ravens pick didn’t go as well as it did in my head. It was looking good when the Ravens jumped out to a 14-3 lead thanks to 2 Anquan Boldin TDs, but then the Ravens offense failed them. They couldn’t convert some key 3rd downs and the Browns got the ball and put some nice drives together despite the losses of Delhomme, Jerome Harrison, and Robiskie.

Cleveland didn’t turn over the ball as I thought they would and they controlled the clock. Like I said, be weary of high spreads, but I wasn’t going to take any road teams after their disastrous start to the season. Didn’t think the Browns offense could handle the Ravens D, especially without some key players, and thought the Browns horrendous D would show up once again on the road.

With the Ravens up 21-17, there’s a still a shot at covering with 9 minutes left, but they need a TD for the push. Time for that turnover that’s due. Wallace fumbles, but recovers at CLE’s 3 to set up a 3rd and 28, so there is still a shot here.

All 1:00 games seamed to play out as a 50/50 percent chance of either team covering. Only clear winner was Steelers over Bucs. Kansas City also dominated their game against San Fransisco, leading 24-3 in the 3rd. There’s no way anyone thought the Chiefs could put up 24 points against the Niners. No one. As I said, if the Chiefs come out on top, you know just how big the home-dog factor has played out this season, but the Steelers came out on top against the home dog Bucs. Gauging what will happen on Sunday …

Ravens baby... Ravens!

Hope everyone had a nice college Saturday going into NFL Sunday. I had two nice hits thanks to Nevada (-4) and Stanford (-4.5). My other play on Saturday was South Carolina (+3). South Carolina had 4 turnovers in the 4th quarter after being in the driver’s seat the entire game and failed to cover. It was the right pick, but I guess you can’t win ’em all. I’ll take two out of three any day. Those were the three games that I played on Saturday.

I also recommended Kansas and Florida State in my write up and those picks hit. There were also some other heartbreakers mixed in those picks. Good thing I played TCU (-18) small on Friday since they won by 17 points after the extra point on TCU’s last TD was missed. That wasn’t fixed, right? Oregon also missed the -11.5 cover by a half point. I also kept everyone away from Alabama (-7). I should have even come out a said that Arkansas (+7) was the play, but not many people have made a living betting against college football’s best teams. Ohio State also covered the 42.5 points against Eastern Michigan, 73-20.

Enough about college football. Today I’m liking the Ravens (-11) at 1:00. The line opened at -11, which is where I grabbed it, but has moved to -12.5. Why do I like the Ravens? Well I’m not going to be crazy enough to put my money on any road favorites. There’s over a half dozen home dogs this week, so we’ll really see how well the home dog theory works out.

What worked last week? Home teams, home teams, home teams. We played Atlanta (-6.5) and Green Bay …

Kentucky Wildcats @ Florida Gators

Yes, Joey G is back for yet another over/under prediction. Now knock on wood, but I have not been incorrect with any of my over/under predictions thus far since joining the pass rush. I see an easy over tonight with Kentucky and Florida.

Florida hosts Kentucky tonight at 7pm.

Kentucky has stayed over 200 yards in both their passing and rushing game in each of their first three games. They have yet to turn the ball over this season. Florida, on the other hand, has been absolutely lost on offense. They looked as if they were going to lose to Miami (OH) in their opening game of the season! The only thing that they have going for them right now is their defense. They are making their opponents turn the ball over four times a game. Making Miami turn the ball over four times in their opener is what handed them that victory.

Kentucky has not been challenged too much on offense yet this year but they are putting up some stats that I am sure they are happy with. If Florida can keep up their “high turnover” mentality this season, let’s just hope it happens on the opponent’s side of the field. I see this one going over, and pretty easily.

Key Trends:

• Kentucky over is 4-0 in their last four coming off of a win.
• Kentucky over is 10-1 in their last 11 coming off a game where they covered the spread.
• Kentucky over is 5-2 in last seven conference games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five games.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five as a favorite.
• Florida over is 4-1 in last five coming off of a win.

Play on …

Well I had a rough Thursday night. Pitt looked like THE worst team in CFB, total opposite of what they looked like against Utah. I am sorry for that pick I wrote about. Forgive me. But I hope you did play on Joey G’s UNDER, contrarily to what many of you thought, which hit easily.

Last Sunday in my ‘Small Play’ article I went 3-1-0 with the only loss coming as the Giants got smacked by Peyton and Co. I feel as if I know the NFL much better than CFB, so I will not make any CFB picks but stay with the NFL. I am putting this article out a little earlier than usual so you can soak in my picks and take some winners. I am most confident in my first two plays, but I like them all.

1) Play on the UNDER 33 in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Pittsburgh Steelers game.Both offenses are terrible and Pitt has their third string QB starting the game. LOSER

2) Play on the UNDER 37 in the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens game. Look for Baltimore to score more points with their defense this week than their offense, especially with Seneca Wallace getting the start. This is one of my most confident picks of the season so far. Me and JOEY G both love this under. Take it. LOSER

3) Play on the Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) against the N.O. Saints. Atlanta’s defense has been very impressive so far this year, look for them to cause problems for Drew Brees and his offense. I bet not too many of you like this pick, and that’s exactly why I do. I just told Joey G about my pick, he gave me the …