Football Picks Against the Spread

Last week I told you that I’m bringing on a new contributor to the site. The dude starts you off 2-0 ATS. The NC State/Cincinnati under 54.5 was an easy winner and Nevada absolutely cruised to a victory. It wasn’t even fair. Even better is the fact that he delivered two wins on Thursday night and Friday night to set up the table for what should be a great Saturday in college football before going into a tough Sunday in the NFL.

For the person who said, “sure, now you talk about your pick of Texans over Colts. Show us what you can do before the games.” Looks like he showed you.

Here’s What’s On Tap:

• Brandon’s Week 3 College Picks
• Nebraska (-3.5) @ Washington
• Alabama (-23.5) @ Duke
• Iowa @ Arizona (+2)
• NFL Week 2 Picks
• NFL Week 2 Over/Under Special
• The Kid’s Week 2 “Sharp Play”

This Calls For Metallica

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Is Nick Foles ready to shine in the spotlight against a tough defense?

IOWA HAWKEYES @ ARIZONA WILDCATS (+2) — 10:30 ESPN

Both Brandon and The Kid like Arizona and I’m with them. Two factors here: it’s a home-dog play and it’s a revenge game for Arizona, who was beaten by Iowa 27-17 last year in week 3 when this game was in Iowa. The change in location will be key this time around as Arizona was 4-0 ATS at home against conference foes last year. Although a Big 10 team is rolling into town, I’m saying this because with covers against Oregon (-5.5), California (+7.5), Stanford (+4), and Washington (+33), they had an impressive home resume last year.

QB Nick Foles is really coming along and is ready to have a breakout year. Although he’s only faced Toledo and The Citadel, he’s completed 83.1% of his passes. Arizona is averaging over 500 yards of offense and has outscored their two opponents 92-8. Iowa’s offense has equally been impress with their two blowout wins, averaging 457 yards per game and 37 points per game.

In the Iowa game last year, Foles only got 11 passing attempts. It wasn’t until after that game that Foles became the man at QB. Another player to watch is the elusive RB Nic Grisby who has already piled up 160 yards and 5 TDs on just 19 attempts — a ridiculous 8.4 YPC. Iowa is going to have a tough time matching up with Foles and the weapons that he has around him. Foles has two very talented 6’4″ receivers in Juron Criner and Delashaun Dean.

On defense, Iowa will need another big game out of #94 DE Adrian Clayborn if they want a …

"Get off me bro!" Nebraska continues to run the ball with ease.

No. 8 NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (-3.5) @ WASHINGTON HUSKIES — 3:30 ABC

Like I mentioned earlier this week, I’m liking the Cornhuskers -3.5 in this one.  I thought this spread would be more like -4.5 or -5.5. On the other hand, Washington was one of those teams that I wanted to ride this year with the development of QB Jake Locker and the nice weapons that he has around him. Washington let me down week 1 against BYU, but bounced back with a nice cover against Syracuse, a game that Brandon picked.

We all know that Nebraska is known for their defense, but the player to watch in this one is QB Taylor Martinez. Martinez has averaged 142 rushing yards per game with an average of 13.5 YPC — that’s ridiculous! He already has 5 rushing TDs in 2 games. Not only is Martinez a tremendous rushing threat, but he throws a nice ball as well, completing nearly 70% of his passes. Oh yeah, this guy is the real deal. See highlights below. Granted, the defenses he’s faced (Western Kentucky and Idaho) are laughing matters, but there’s no doubt that this kid is a talented player and he’ll be facing another weak defense. Washington has a questionable defense at best. I don’t think think they’ll have enough to stop this Nebraska offense that has put up 49 and 38 in their first two games.

One thing to worry about is how the redshirt freshman is able to handle his first start on the road. That is one thing to be concerned about. However, when it doubt, just your wheels Taylor. Nebraska has managed a 5-2 record ATS in …

Nevada loves the Friday night lights.

California Golden Bears @ Nevada Wolfpack (+3)

Take it if you like it, but my money is on Nevada tonight. Nevada looks like they should be getting more points just because California stomped Colorado last week 52-7. You have to look at the stat that Colorado turned the ball over five times that game and seemed completely lost on offense. With Nevada only turning it over one time in two games, you have to expect that they will take care of the ball and not give away any freebies. With 631 total yards against Colorado St. last week, Nevada is coming into tonight with the utmost confidence on offense.

This being California’s first road test of the season, I’m interested to see how they handle themselves. I don’t see a lot of turnovers coming from either one of these two teams tonight. Cal will have some confidence coming off the big win over Colorado, but it won’t be enough to hold off the Wolfpack tonight.

I like the home dog here. Home dogs are 15-10 (60%) ATS this season to date, and Cal is 0-6 ATS in their last six against WAC opponents. The Wolfpack love Friday nights going 5-1 ATS in their last six played on a Friday.

Play on Nevada (+3)…

Look on Coach Singletary's face when Seattle beat him 31-6.

We hope you enjoyed the Thursday Night Winner: NC State/Cincinnati Under 54.5. You can thank our new contributor Joey G for that one as well as further support from both Brandon and I on board with that pick if you take the time to read through the comments. Thank you to everyone who comments and contributes to the site to make it more interactive.

Brandon has added a ton of more games this his Saturday lineup for you to check out.  He’s got plenty of games with the points on his card that he’s looking to take advantage of including Arizona State (+14), Ball State (+17), and Mississippi State (+8). Be sure to check out some of those picks.

This is just a reminder for everyone to get their picks in for the pick ’em league. If you haven’t joined, we’re only 1 week in and there’s 16 weeks of action left so there’s plenty of time to catch up and play for the title, which will earn you a free NFL shop custom t-shirt. Click here to register. League ID is 10945 and the password is thepassrush.

Congratulations to league leaders Fozzy_Bucs and erstiffs who sit atop the leaderboard and posted an insane 10-3-3 record against the spread last week. I wonder how they come out this week. They each got three different games wrong interestingly. Both had Houston over Colts and Seattle over 49ers so you may call it luck or maybe they know what the hell they’re doing. Fozzy had CHI, ATL, and SD wrong while erstiffs had BUF, DEN, and DAL wrong.  Only 5/30 had Seattle and Kansas City covering while …

Browns will 'ground and pound' to an easy victory this Sunday

I am not the kind of “bettor” that takes every single game he sees and likes. I, on the other hand, only have a few games that jump out at me. One intriguing game that jumped out at me was this week’s Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (-2).

Kansas City is coming off an emotionally-high victory against the defending AFC West champion, San Diego Chargers. I don’t think too many of you saw that one coming. (See Vegas’ Week 1 Picks Everyone Got Wrong article). Now America loves the Chiefs after watching them handle the Chargers.

Now you look at the spread of the Chiefs/Browns (-2) and immediately want to bet with the Chiefs getting points. I mean sure, why not? No way Chiefs will lose to a struggling Browns team that doesn’t even know who their starting QB is. A preseason AFC West favorite (San Diego) lost to a Kansas City team that had many questions themselves. Vegas LOVES the KC victory because they know they have you hooked on them and playing a questioned  Cleveland Browns team.

My “Sharp Play” of the week is taking the Cleveland Browns at (-2) this week against the Chiefs. …

Look for NC State to force those turnovers out of Cincinnati in tonight's epic battle.

CINCINNATI BEARCATS @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK

North Carolina State hosts Cincinnati tonight starting at 7:45 pm. Cincinnati is coming off a 40-7 annihilation of Indiana St. in week two, along with NC State coming off a huge 28-21 road win in Central Florida.

Cincinnati had a very tough time running the ball in week one against Fresno State, giving it 32 times and only gaining 15 yards. They relied heavily on their passing game, which resulted in a 28-14 loss. Then in week two, they learned how to run putting up 263 rushing yards and only passing for half as many yards as they did in week one. I believe in this match-up tonight, Cinci is going to want to start the game off by pounding the ball on the ground, which means a lot of time consumption.

NC State is second in the nation right now in turnover margin at three, not to mention the five they forced out of Central Florida last Saturday night. They have yet to turn the ball over this season.

Don’t Forget: Cincinnati has gone under in five of its last seven non-conference games. NC State likes to stay under on Thursday nights (13 of last 16).

Let’s face it, when you combine defense and running, it usually results in an under.

Play on under (54.5) Winner…