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Virginia Tech vs. Boise State – The Final Word – Interesting Line Movement

Posted by in College Football Picks on September 6th, 2010 | 7 Comments
Boise State vs. Virginia Tech Line Movement

I'm flip-flopping, Boise is just too damn good.

Week 1 College Football Recap

Like I mentioned throughout all this week, there weren’t any picks that I loved this week. I only played a handful of games very light. I got all jacked up when I went 2-0 on Thursday night thanks to Brandon’s call of South Carolina -14 and my play of Pitt +3.5. I then gave some of that back when Washington failed to cover by 3 and Cincinnati didn’t show up for me against Fresno, but if you were to listen to Brandon, he liked Fresno in that one and he nailed that call. However, a sweet 2-to-1 odds 4-team teaser made the week a fantastic one for me. My teaser card hit with LSU -2.5, Notre Dame -3.5, Missouri -4, and Colorado -4.5. My teaser of TCU -6/Over 43.5 also hit, but I did not touch that game. When it comes to teasers, I often strike gold. For many of the week 1 college football games, I recommended teasing the line down (Notre Dame, TCU, and Colorado) since I simply did not like the high spreads.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State – Final Word

I’m about to flip-flop on this pick. I originally came out and called Virginia Tech to win based on two key factors: (1) VT’s triple threat running attack may cause trouble for Boise State; and (2) VT is playing this came close to home (at FedEx Field in Washington DC). However, the more I think about this matchup, the more I like Boise State. If Virginia Tech wants to win this one, they will have to keep this game low scoring. They simply cannot beat Boise in a shootout.

If Virginia Tech controls the football, which they can with the type of running game they have, and don’t turn over the football, they have a great shot at winning this game. However, Boise State has not lost in their last two regular seasons and they return 23 starters from their Fiesta Bowl victory.Virginia Tech is also trying to replace seven defensive players and you’re asking a lot from a young defense to stop Boise State. Boise State should simply be able to put points up in bunches and Virginia Tech will be hard pressed to keep up. The whole “controlling the clock” theory will immediately go out the window once Boise puts up a quick 14 points and they’ll have to play keep up with Boise State. I think the odds of winning this game are clearly in Boise’s favor. I initially picked Virginia Teh to have my “I told you so” moment early in the season, but I’m going the other way on this one.

Virginia Tech vs. Boise State Line Movement

I also spotted a very dubious line movement that I now want to take advantage of via a teaser. For some reason, the line has moves from Boise State -2.5 to Boise State +1.5. The under has also drifted down from 53 to 51.5.  I can understand why a lot of people like the under. Namely, the Boise State vs. TCU game which ended 17-10. However, I’m anticipating a high-scoring game. I will look to take advantage of that movement to play a 7-point teaser of Boise State +8.5, over 44.5. In fact, I’m allowed to use 8.5-point teasers, so I’ll be laying the extra juice to take this one at Boise Sate +10 over 43.5.  At a minimum, the score should end 24-20, one would hope. You may just want to take Boise outright since the over/under is anyone’s guess, but I’ll simply consider Boise +10 as insurance should Virginia Tech end up controlling this game with their strong running game or the location of this game gives them a slight edge.

This is Boise State’s shot at a National Championship. Coach will have them ready.

Tonights Play: 8.5-point teaser (2:3 odds) – Boise Sate +10, Over 43.5 – Confidence 3.5/5

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7 Responses to Virginia Tech vs. Boise State – The Final Word – Interesting Line Movement:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Sep 06, 2010 at 1:15 pm

    The line movement is a little drastic, but not all that surprising. VT is still considered a football powerhouse and this is a big step up from the normal competition Boise faces throughout the year. Having said that though, Boise tends to step up pretty well. The key for Boise to win this game is to stop the run and most teams have been able to run on them at will. However, they have had a long long time to prepare for this matchup and I would look for some better run defense in this matchup. Bottom line for me is that this game is Boise’s entire season, its win or forget about playing in a BCS game. VT on the other hand, can lose and still play in a BCS game based on their strength of schedule. I look for this game to be a high scoring affair with Boise winning 44-31.

    I also decided to jump on a teaser, but I added Maryland. I think this game is a little closer than most expected. Navy can be stopped if you have time to prepare and that is what we have here. Navy is not going to surprise Maryland. Look for Navy to win, but don’t be surprised if Maryland pulls the upset.

    MY TEASER: Maryland +12, Boise +7, and over 46. (2to1 odds).

    Good Luck.

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