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Brandon Phillips’ Week 6 College Football Picks

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 2nd, 2008 | Comment »

Since this is the first time posting anything here at thepassrush.com, I thought I would say a little about myself and my betting strategy. I am a soon to be Law school graduate with an interest in Family Law and Corporate Law. My true love is baseball, but seem to have a good handle on college football and college basketball picks. The one thing I know about gambling is that over the years Las Vegas has only lost one bet, home-dogs against the spread, with a win rate of 54%, you need about 52% to break even. Therefore, I always begin the week by looking at home-dogs and working from there. Each week I will give you some home-dogs that I like. So far this year my home dog plays are 17-7 ATS. I will value rate the games (1-5, 5 being the strongest game).

Week 6 Home-Dogs:

1.) BYU @ Utah State (+29): While on paper this game looks like another easy blowout win by BYU, I continue to value home field-advantage. BYU has looked very good this year except for the game at Washington, a 28-27 win. Washington has not proved anything so far this year to back up the strong performance they had against BYU, so either they aren’t playing up to their ability or BYU just didn’t come into the game well enough prepared. Utah State is 2-2 ATS so far this year. While I don’t think they have a chance of winning, they have shown the ability to score points, scoring an average of 23 points per game, so even if they give up 50, they still may be within the number. (Rating +2) It wasn’t pretty and basically we just got lucky, but in the end, the final score is all that matters and we have a winning ticket to cash. BYU 34 USU 14.

2.) Boston College @ NC State (+8). This game came out at 8 and has went to 9 or 9.5. NC State is not that bad of a team and they tend to play well in games they are suppose to lose. Last week, they got thumped by a strong South Florida team, however they were still likely living off the high from beating ECU the week before. I see them coming back much more focused as they start conference play against BC. (Rating +2). Another close game throughout with NC State scoring late to get the cover. BC 38 NC St. 31.

3.) Kansas @ Iowa State (+13): Kansas’s schedule with the exception of South Florida, has been weak to say the least. I think Iowa State may surprise them. Iowa State has played tough on the road verse Iowa and UNLV, then took a week off to prepare for Kansas. Look for a potential shocker here. (Rating +3). I thought Iowa State was going to pull off the shocker up 20-0 at half, but the Jayhawks hung tough and played well in the second half to pull off a late fourth quarter win. Kansas 35 ISU 33.

4.) Akron @ Kent State (+3.5): There are two strong reasons to play this game. (A.) The home surface of Kent State is a Turf surface which is different then the home surface of Akron. Akron is 1-3 ATS on Turf Fields. (B.) The home team has won this game the last two years. (Rating +2). Very close game throughout and that half point saved us. Akron 30 Kent St. 27.

5.) LA Lafayette @LA Monroe (+2): Again I look to the surface as La Laf. is 0-2 ATS on turf fields this year. Now they travel to in-state rival LA Monroe and are asked to lay points. Power Ratings have LA Monroe as a 9-point favorite and they are getting 2, so there is some value if you give any consideration to Power Ratings. LA Monroe has dominated this series going 8-3 the last year 11 years. (Rating +3). Monroe’s D had no answer for Lafayette’s offensive attack scoring in every quarter. The game was close, but clearly dominated by Lafayette. LA Laf. 44 LA Mon. 35.

Other Plays:

6.) S. Carolina (+2.5) @ Ole Miss: While I think S. Carolina is highly overrated, I still believe they are a much stronger team than Ole Miss. Ole Miss will have to refocus after all the big hype of beating Florida. Too many times you see a team come off a big win and then have a total let down the following week, especially when that team wasn’t even suppose to be within 30 points of final score. Look for a let down and a S. Carolina win. (Rating +4). Tough D in the second half by the Gamecocks which held Ole Miss to 3 second half points, helped them pull off a solid road win. SC 31 Miss 24.

7.) Northern Illinois @ Tennessee (-16): Tennessee is due to blow someone out. They haven’t played well all year. Northern Ill. has not played a defense as strong as UT’s. Their defense is pretty strong giving up less than a 100 yards rushing per game and only about 250 yards of total offense per game. UT usually puts together 5 or 6 good games every year to get them back in the hunt for a decent bowl game. If that is going to happen this year it needs to start with a thumping on Saturday. (Rating +3). UT still cannot find any offensive leadership struggling against a weak Northern Illinois team and scoring only 13 points. NI 9 UT 13.

Weekend Total:

1. Home-Underdog Plays: 4-1, 6 units of profit.

                Year Total: 21-8 (72%)

2. Other Plays: 1-1, 1 unit of profit.

3. College Games Weekend Total: 5-2, 7 units of profit.



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