Archive for September, 2008

Last week turned out to be a great week betting on the NFL. My top two games (Steelers and Cowboys) hit and most of my other plays worked out as well, which translated into moving up 12 units. This week my top two games will be the Packers and Steelers. The Packers are somehow only a 3-point favorite against the Lions, who are the worst defensive team in the NFL. I expect the Packers to put up at least 30 points and I can’t see the Lions getting more than 24 off this Packers D. I would think the spread on this game should be Packers -6.5 and -9 if the game were played in Green Bay, so I think this is a great play. I’m also big on the Steelers, which is the Sunday Night game. Big Ben has a sore shoulder and is listed as probable, but I think he’ll be fine and Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall should be able to run all over against the team that is 27th against the run based on last week’s performance and 27th against the run in 2007. The Browns offense struggled against the Cowboys last week and it should be the same story against a tough Pittsburgh D.

I’m putting 8 units on the Packers and 6 units on the Steelers. My other bets include 4 units on the Giants, 3 units on the Saints, 3 units on the Cardinals, and a 2 unit parlay with the 49ers moneyline and the under (pays 6:1).

Here are the previews for all of my week 2 games.

Good luck this Sunday!…

Steven Jackson’s latest Nike commercial.

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We are back for another edition of Fantasy Football Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em. Remember, if you haven’t read our NFL Week 2 Predictions and Picks, be sure to check those out.

START ‘EM

1.) Ryan Grant — Michael Turner managed 220 yards and 2 TDs off the Lions. The Lions are by far the worst defense in the NFL. Expect Ryan Grant to put up huge numbers.

2.) Aaron Rodgers/Greg Jennings/Donald Driver — I’m expecting 30+ points from the Packers and A-Rod and company will put up big numbers.

3.) Devery Henderson — The Redskins D didn’t look too good against Plaxico Burress. With Marques Colston out and Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush seeing constant double teams, that should give Henderson a lot of looks.

4.) Plaxico Burress — He had 133 yards last week against the Skins. This week he’ll be against a Rams defense that gave up 414 yards in the air alone to the Eagles without their top 2 receivers, it spells good things for Burress.

5.) Eli Manning — With McNabb throwing for 361 yards and 3 TDs against the Rams last week, Eli should be able to do some damage against the Rams as well.

6.) Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes — The Steelers have the Browns this week. They rank in the bottom in nearly every defensive category. Last week, Romo had over 300 yards in the air and Marion Barber had 2 rushing TDs. I’ll expect at least 28 points from the Steelers offense this week.

7.) Jay Cutler or Kurt Warner? — I’m in an interesting predicament. Do I start Cutler against the Chargers or Warner against the Dolphins? Warner only put up 200 yards and 1 …

2010 NFL Week 2 Picks »

2009 NFL Week 2 Picks »

Last week turned out to be a great week. I ended up 12 units on my bets and my top 2 plays of the week worked out like a charm. I took the Steelers and Cowboys and they both dominated the game. There was no need to even sweat those ones out. This week, the games look harder, but after looking through the matchups, there are still a handful of games that I like. On to the NFL Week 2 betting analysis.

SPREADS TO TAKE:

GREEN BAY PACKERS -3 @ DETROIT LIONS

The Lions by far have the worst defense in the NFL. They gave up 34 points to the Falcons and allowed over 200 rushing yards to 1 player! Last season, the Falcons were ranked 23rd offensively and they put up 34 on the Lions; just imagine what the 2nd ranked offense from last year will do to them. The Lions were ranked dead last in yards allowed AND points allowed last season. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. Last season the Packers defeated the Lions twice. The scores of those games: 34-13 and 37-26. I’m putting 6 units on the Packers -3. I love this game. I’m not worried about the Lions WRs either because the Packers have one of the best secondaries in the league. 96% of the money on the spread at sportsbook.com is on the Packers and is clearly the favorite game amongst bettor.

Prediction — Packers 35 – Lions 20

Pick Against the Spread: Packers -3 — Confidence 5/5
Pick Straight Up: Packers — Confidence 5/5

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (SUNDAY NIGHT GAME)

I love the Steelers this year. I …

Fantasy Studs:
1.) Michael Turner — 220 yards, 2 TDs
2.) Donovan McNabb — 361 yards, 3 TDs
3.) Drew Brees – 342 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
4.) Willie Parker — 138 yards, 3 TDs
5.) Brian Westbrook — 92 yards, 2 TD
6.) Eddie Royal — 146 receiving yards, 9 rushing yards, 1 TD
7.) Reggie Bush — 106 receiving yards, 51 rushing yards, 1 TD
8.) Matte Forte — 123 yards, 1 TD
9.) Randy Moss — 116 yards, 1 TD
10.) Hines Wards — 76 yards, 2 TDs
11.) Adrian Peterson — 114 yards, 1 TD
12.) Hank Baskett — 102 yards, 1 TD
13.) Thomas Jones — 101 yards 1 TD
14.) Jerious Norwood — 93 yards, 1 TD
15.) Plaxico Burress — 133 yards
16.) Jericho Cotchery — 80 yards, 1 TD
17.) Buffalo Defense — 10 points allowed, 1 INT, 1 FF, 5 sacks (If their defense is available, and you picked a bad one, you may want to pick them up.)
18.) Andre Johnson — 112 yards
19.) Calvin Johnson — 107 yards
20.) DeSean Jackson — 106 yards (Not to mention, all the incredible punt returns by him).
21.) Lee Evans — 102 yards
22.) Reggie Wayne — 86 yards, 1 TD

Fantasy Duds:
1.) Tom Brady — 76 yards yards (Out for the season)
2.) Carson Palmer — 99 yards, 1 INT
3.) Santonio Holmes — 18 yards
4.) Chad Ocho Cinco — 22 yards
5.) Marques Colston — 26 yards
6.) Maurice Jones-Drew — 13 rushing yards, 27 receiving yards
7.) Joseph Addai — 47 yards…

The first game went as planned with the Packers win, so that was 2 units under my belt. Despite leaving 10 points off the board (a 70+ yard TD by Donald Driver that was called back due to a dumb penalty and a blocked FG), they still came out with the win. What a regular season debut from Aaron Rodgers. The guy has a canon for an arm. The Packer’s front office made the right call: this guy is the real deal.

I made a bad call with the Raiders pick, but I only put 1 unit on them since I wasn’t too confident with them to begin with. The Broncos screwed me several times last year when I bet on them, which I had in my mind when making this call, and I was looking too much into the Broncos’ poor run defense (ranked 30th) and thought the Monday night/home team combo would be a safer play — it usually is for the Monday Night home dog. The Raiders still have their way to go and their secondary certainly doesn’t look as good as it does on paper. Cutler looked damn good — I’m certainly glad I picked him up in the 10th round of my fantasy draft. How about that Eddie Royal. I thought I had the fantasy win locked up and this guy puts up over 150 yards and 1 TD. Ouch. He may challenge DeSean Jackson and Matt Forte for rookie of the year.

Here’s my updated record:
— Straight Up: 11-5
— Against The Spread: 10-6
— My Betting Units: +12…

It turned out to be a great week: I won over 10 units, my team (the Eagles) won, and my fantasy team dominated.  It was one of the best Sunday’s betting-wise that I’ve ever had.  I ended up +11 units.  5/7 of the games that I played hit.

I put the most of my money on the Steelers (5 units) and Cowboys (4 units) and they both ended up winning big: there was no need to sweat those out.  My plays on the Saints, Cardinals, and Eagles also worked out as planned (7 units total).  The only games that I lost were the Chargers and Colts, but only 2 units.  My Sunday would have been incredible if the Chargers would have pulled that game out.  They were up by 5 and the Panthers scored a touchdown with 4 seconds left on the clock.  I hit the first 6 teams on my $10 7-team parlay, which would have paid $120.  All I needed was 1 incomplete pass at the end of that game, but the Panthers scored the TD.  That one hurt, but I’ll take this type of week any time.  Hopefully you guys made some solid calls this week as well.

My Picks Record So Far:
— Straight Up: 10-4
— Against The Spread: 9-5
— My Betting Units: +11…