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Phillips Week 7 College Football: Tuesday (10/7) College Home-dog Play

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 6th, 2008 | 2 Comments

Troy at Florida Atlantic (+3.5): Week 7 opens up with an early home-dog play in the Sun-Belt conference. Troy is a respectable 2-2, while FAU is 1-4. A quick glance at this game would appear to give Troy a considerable edge. However, FAU has played an impressive schedule including games at Texas, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, and a tough last second loss last week at Middle Tenn St. The only win came at home verse UAB 49-34. FAU is only averaging 15 points a game, while Troy is averaging almost 33. FAU has clearly struggled on the road, but most teams will struggle against tough defenses in the Big 12 and Big 10. Troy is coming off two consecutive road games at Ohio State and at Oklahoma State. Troy now must go on the road for a third consecutive time. That is a lot of traveling for any team. With the exception of a poor performance against Minnesota, FAU’s D has been impressive holding Michigan State to only 17 points and Midd Tenn St to 14. FAU is 2-2 ats this year. FAU should benefit by being home for the first time in a while and should be excited to play in a televised game in front of their home crowd. Look for FAU to take advantage of a tired Trojans team that may come out flat. If FAU can jump on them early they should be able to pull off a solid conference win. (Rating +2). While Troy was clearly the better team, FAU made several poor decisions on offense and special teams. Home-dogs cannot win or cover when they make silly TOs and that was simply the downfall of FAU tonight. When they were able to mount an offensive attack, they failed to convert those opportunities into points, failing to get any points on three different trips inside the red zone. Troy 30 FAU 17



2 Responses to Phillips Week 7 College Football: Tuesday (10/7) College Home-dog Play:

  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 07, 2008 at 11:38 am

    So far your system plays have been doing great, but after I read this, I became a little less optimistic about Florida Atlantic (this is from covers.com):

    Troy is averaging 32.5 points per game and 441.8 yards per game, but that total is inflated by its 736 total yards in a 65-0 win over I-AA (forget that Football Championship Subdivision stuff) Alcorn State. The Trojans had 305 yards of offense against Ohio State and 416 against Oklahoma State. QB Jamie Hampton has completed 63.4 percent of his passes and is averaging 232.5 yards passing per game, with nine touchdowns and seven interceptions. On defense, Troy allows 331.2 yards per game, which is pretty good considering what Oklahoma State did to that unit.

    FAU’s offense has scored only one TD in the past three games as Smith has struggled this season, completing less than 50 percent of his passes with four TDs and seven interceptions. Smith hasn’t thrown a TD since the Owls’ lone win, against UAB in the second game of the season, and has six total interceptions in the past two games; his QB rating is No. 102 in Division I-A. In addition, the Owls only rank 101st in the nation in rushing yards, so it’s no surprise they are No. 106 in points scored (15 ppg). FAU also is minus-9 in turnover margin.

  2. Brandon

    Date: Oct 07, 2008 at 1:38 pm

    You don’t know how many times stats have stacked up against a home-dog just like they do tonight. The system has come up with several games this year that I simply thought the home team would easily get beat by more than 30 or 40 and for some reason the game was close and the home-dog covered. The BYU game vs. New Mexico State last Friday was a great example of that. BYU was up 24-0 at the end of the 1st quarter and were favored by 29. In the second half they were able to increase their lead to 34-0. BYU had not allowed a TD in two weeks and NWS had not scored a TD in their past two games. However, NWS scored twice in the fourth quarter to cover 34-14. For tonights game, the best stat or fact in FAU’s favor is that Troy is playing their third consecutive road game. That is a lot of traveling for any team. Now Troy has to go on the road again against a conference oppenent. Troy and FAU were both at the top of the Sun Belt conference last year so these teams know each other pretty well. While I realize FAU appears to be clearly over matched I will yeild to the success of the system and take the home dog, they may get routed, but you can’t deny the success of the system so far this year.

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