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NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 8th, 2008 | 6 Comments

The following will be updated and amended accordingly throughout the week, so stay tuned.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -8

My first impression was that the Saints will win, but won’t cover. They’re coming of a demoralizing loss where some flaws have been exposed. The Raiders are coming off the bye week. JaMarcus Russell has been playing well. The last time the Raiders were on the road, they nearly beat the Buffalo Bills. I have my doubts about the Saints after Monday Night, but this could be a statement game for the Saints. Their defensive woes and offensive miscues may continue, which could be more likely since the Raiders are good at getting pressure on the QB. They have 12 sacks on the year (with 1 less games played than most people), which is ranked 9th. If you add their 3.0 sacks per-game average, they would be 3rd behind the Eagles and Steelers. I guess I’m just looking for ways to avoid the Saints because I wouldn’t want to give up 8 points to any team the way the Saints are losing in close games. On the other hand, I wouldn’t rule out a Saints blowout either. This is just a do not touch game for me.

Prediction — Saints 28 – Raiders 17

Pick Against the Spread: Saints -8 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Saints – Confidence 5/5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4.5

There’s no question that the Ravens have the best defense in the league. They’ve given up only 3 TDs in 4 games. That’s ridiculous. The Colts haven’t been overly impressive. They’re 32nd against the run, so McGahee and McClain are completely capable of dominating the time of possession. The Ravens will go out and play Ravens defense. I will be surprised if the Ravens give up more than 17 points. The Ravens D has giving up only 14 PPG (and it should be about 2 points less because Flacco gave up 7 points to the other team) and they’ve faced some pretty good teams (Steelers, Titans). Samarri Rolle is doubtful and Willis McGahee is a little banged up. I say the Ravens shut down the Colts defense and at least hold them to 17, which means the Ravens only need 13 points to cover. Flacco is getting better as a QB. I’m expecting the Ravens running game and defense to control this game. Take the points.

Prediction — Ravens 16 – Colts 13

Pick Against the Spread: Ravens +4.5 – Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Ravens – Confidence 3/5

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ NEW YORK JETS -6

The Bengals aren’t playing as bad as their 0-5 may indicate. They nearly beat the Giants and Cowboys on the road. Unfortunately, they’ll be on the road again this week against a team off their bye week. Brett Favre is still playing like the Favre of old, fresh off a game with 6 passing TDs, with 2 weeks to prepare for a pretty bad Bengals defense (without a starting CB Johnathan Joseph). The Bengals were impressive the last two weeks and you have to think they’re due for a win, but Brett Favre is at home, well rested, and against a shoddy defense. I would tease the Jets down and take the over. The Jets have a very good run defense, so the Bengals will be passing all over and Palmer is getting back to form even if he’s playing a little banged up. I like the Jets in this one.

Prediction — Jets 31- Bengals 24

Pick Against the Spread: Jets -6 – Confidence 2/5
Pick Straight Up: Jets – Confidence 4/5

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -1

This matchup is for NFC South dominance. Both teams are playing pretty good football. They’re both led by solid defenses that have also been doing pretty solid on offense. I definitly give the edge the Panthers offense, but the Bucs are at home, and their defense has been relentless. The Bucs are 4-1 ATS, the Panthers 3-1-1. Their offensive and defensive stats are almost identical, the Panthers having a slight edge in passing defense. This could be a very good game that’s decided by who has possession at the end of the game.

Prediction — Buccaneers 24 – Panthers 20

Pick Against the Spread: Buccaneers – Confidence 1/5
Pick Straight Up: Buccaneers- Confidence 1/5

DETROIT LIONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -13.5

I was really hoping this spread would be a little lower. The Lions are in shambles. I read on a blog by a Bears fan that last week’s win over the Lions wasn’t even gratifying because it’s like being proud of picking on the kid with down syndrome. The Vikings defense will dominate this game. They’ll shut down the run and if Kitna or Orlovsky drops back, that terrible offensive line will give up a ton of sacks. Whoever is QB for the Lions may get killed this week. The Lions are last in turnover differential. The Lions are tied for having the most sacks allowed. They have no run defense, their secondary is awful. The Lions will be battling with the Rams for that #1 pick. I say the Lions lose by 20, but the Vikings may just grind this one out and get a 10-13 point win based on the way Brad Childress likes to coach. If the Lions have their usual 3-4 turnovers though, the Vikings should cover. I don’t want to lay down 13.5 with a team that isn’t necessarily an offensive juggernaut, but the Lions are terrible. Expect a big day from AP. I say go with Vikings cover, Peterson should run all over this defense, if not, Bernard Berrian should be good for one deep, the Lions will give up the ball a few times, and commit stupid penalties. If they suck at home, they’re worse on the road.

Prediction — Vikings 28 – Lions 10

Pick Against the Spread: Vikings -13.5 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Vikings – Confidence 5/5

CHICAGO BEARS -3 @ ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons came out 2.5 underdogs and the public bet heavy on the Bears. I was eying up the Bears too. The Falcons looked impressive last week, but that was against a secondary without 3 starters. Any team would have blown up on the Packers secondary last week. The Falcons have looked impressive at home, but that was against the Lions and Chiefs. When they’ve faced a good defense (the Bucs), they were held to 9 points. I doubt they’ll score very much against the Bears. The Bears offense is also playing well. Matt Forte is keeping defenses honest and Kyle Orton has been getting it done: he has an 87 passer rating. He also has more fantasy points per game than Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. The Bears should win this one by a TD.

Prediction — Bears 24 – Falcons 13

Pick Against the Spread: Bears -3 – Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Bears – Confidence 4/5

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ HOUSTON TEXANS -3

You have to think the Texans are due for a win at home, but I’m going to go with Miami. I would take the 3 points. Their defense is playing inspired, the Texans keep finding ways to lose games, Ronnie Brown has been insane and if he gets going, we all know Chad Pennington has one of the best play-action passes in the game. The Texans also struggle against the run. I’ll go with Ronnie Brown and that Dolphins defense that just shut down the Chargers and held them to 10 points. I don’t want to touch this one because I think the Texans are due for a win at home, but the Dolphins are far more impressive than the Texans.

Prediction — Dolphins 24 – Texans 20

Pick Against the Spread: Dolphins +3 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Dolphins – Confidence 3/5

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS -13.5

I think betting against the Rams on the road is always a good call. The Redskins have pulled off two wins against tough division rivals, both whose names were in the mix of NFC Champions. Some people even have the Redskins 2nd on their power rankings behind the Giants. They are certainly looking good on both sides of the ball, Campbell has yet to turn the ball over, Portis should have another monster game against this terrible run defense. The Rams won’t have any answers offensively against this defense. I think the Redskins will win in blowout fashion. I could easily see a 31-0 win, but if the Redskins give up 10, they should still be able to score 24 and cover in this one.

Prediction — Redskins 31 – Rams 10

Pick Against the Spread: Redskins -13.5 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Redskins – Confidence 5/5

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ DENVER BRONCOS -3.5

The Jags are without a pass rush and have their starting CB and 2006 first-round pick S Reggie Nelson out this game (check on that before the game). Cutler should have all the time in the world to pass all over this defense. The Jags have not looked good and they looked really bad against the Steelers. They couldn’t stop Big Ben at all thanks to Ben having all the time in the world in the pocket. The Broncos D also stepped up big last game. The Jags aren’t doing anything offensively to woo me. They’re struggling. I would go with Broncos covering at home. The Broncos hung in their blow for blow with the Bucs, they should do it again against a less than stellar Jaguars team.

Prediction — Broncos 24 – Jaguars 17

Pick Against the Spread: Broncos -3.5 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Broncos – Confidence 4/5

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5 @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

As an Eagles fan, I’m just hoping we can snap this losing streak against a decent team. The 49ers are nothing special and in the past years, the Eagles have used the 49ers to make a statement game. Usually it’s Westbrook who tears this team up, but he might be out this week. The Eagles need to win this one badly or else this team has a lot of questions to answer.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -2

Both teams were huge disappointments last week. There’s no way I’m taking the Packers with that depleted secondary and Rodgers throwing with a sore shoulder. I wouldn’t necessarily take the Seahawks either. They’re pretty bad and their defense gives up a lot of yards. I’ll play the home card and the injury card and go with the Seahawks.

Prediction — Seahawks 27 – Packers 24

Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks -2 – Confidence 1/5
Pick Straight Up: Seahawks – Confidence 1/5

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -5.5

Which Chargers will show up, the Chargers that played the Dophins or the Chargers that played Jets on Monday Night Football? The Pats are off a big win off the bye week after getting embarrassed at home by the Dolphins. The Chargers’ league worst 32nd passing offense will have the task of containing Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Cassel grew up a lot during the 49ers game, but the 49ers defense isn’t anything too frightening. I don’t want to touch this game. The Chargers don’t look strong at all, but I’m also feeling a strong performance at home against a team they HATE. I say the Patriots should keep this one close, so I would lean in favor of taking the points. I’m also feeling a Chargers W by escaping with a 3-4 point win.

Prediction — Chargers 24 – Patriots 20

Pick Against the Spread: Patriots +5.5 – Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Chargers – Confidence 3/5

NEW YORK GIANTS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -9

After scoring 40+ points without Plaxico Burress, I expect them to do the same type of damage against the Browns. The Giants defense has been dominant: excellent pass rush, tight coverage, they play well against the run. The Browns have had major flaws this year on both sides of the ball. The Giants offense is clicking and this Browns defense is bad. The Giants D has been amazing. I expect the Giants D to get the ball in the hands of Eli often, which should translate in their 31.8 PPG average and 431 YPG. Their D is 2nd in PPG, 3rd in YPG. I’m thinking that the Giants should blow out the Browns, but the only thing holding me back is that the Browns are a home team off a bye week and that’s one of the main reasons I think Miami upset San Diego last week.

Prediction — Giants 31 – Browns 13

Pick Against the Spread: Giants -9 – Confidence 4/5
Pick Straight Up: Giants – Confidence 5/5

My spreads that get approval are: Giants -9, Bears -3, Broncos -3.5, Redskins -13.5, Vikings -13.5. In fact, maybe try a 2 unit 5-team teaser with those teams. Giants -2, Bears +4, Broncos +3.5, Redskins -6.5, Vikings -6.5 look good. I may even add Saints -1 over Oakland, Ravens +11.5 over Colts, and Miami +10 over Texans.

Which games do you like? Hit me up in the comments section.

As Kimbo Slice would say, “We’re still havin the after party. Holla at ya boy.” (Hit up the 1:30 mark).



6 Responses to NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions Against the Spread:

  1. Patrick

    Date: Oct 09, 2008 at 11:24 pm

    Hello Pass Rush,
    This is my first season of really following football and putting some units up on the games :) Not doing the greatest but I found your website and I really enjoy the insight and ways you present the games and bets. I thought that it was just one person, then I saw that you had some special guest writer that puts in college picks. I saw one person named Brandon and now another named Phillip and then the college guy. Is there a section where i can read up on who is who. I wanted to follow the who is the hot picker on The Pass Rush, but I’m not sure who is one thats on a big roll :) Anyhow Thank you again for all the great stuff and wishing you a ton units for the games to come.
    Sincerely,
    Patrick

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 10, 2008 at 10:03 am

    Patrick, there’s just two of us. The original is me, and my alias of Vegas Martin. The other is Brandon Phillips. He’ll designate his pick as Brandon’s or Phillip’s picks. My default NFL picks where I write something about every game are done by me. Brandon’s specialty is picking college home underdogs, which he likes to stick to because they’ve cover 70% of the time. I mostly bet on the NFL and dabble a little in college. My NFL picks have had some ups and downs. I started the season on the right tracks, but then I had two picks that really hurt me: DEN over KC, and SD over MIA. Fortunately, I worked myself back into the game with the Sunday Night and Monday night picks, so I’m back to being up 10 units.

  3. Patrick

    Date: Oct 12, 2008 at 12:52 am

    Ok that cleared things up for me… for a second there i thought there were at least four of you :)
    Again, you do a really clean job on your format and the way you present all your info. Your hard work and time is appreciated. Im gonna continue to follow your picks and see if i can make a turnaround too.
    Wishing you luck and tons of units in the weeks to come.
    Patrick

  4. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 12, 2008 at 11:26 am

    Thanks for the kind words Patrick. Good luck this week. Which games did you decide on? This has been a tough year in the NFL ATS. As always, there’s always some surprises each week and it’s ridiculous how many games are determined by a turnover or a blown call by the refs. I’m pretty high on the Bears this week. I’m going to put my faith in that defense. The Falcons have been rolling at home, but they’ve had an easy schedule, so I’m not too impressed with their 3 wins. Of all the games there is to choose from, for some reason, this is the one that is yelling out at me, so I hope my gut is right on this one. Let’s go Bears!

  5. Patrick

    Date: Oct 12, 2008 at 10:17 pm

    Booooo ATS lol… I also really liked the bears… I liked the dolphins cause they are confusing so many people with that wildcat offense, i also liked greenbay, and the losers i liked were baltimore and i had new england, in my last three team parlay, with was NE Dodger and NY Giants, damn NE, my dodgers even came through for me. I really like the Giants tomorrow night. Are you planning on betting the Giants tomorrow night and what type of bet are you thinking about doing?
    Parlay with over under?

    Patrick

  6. Patrick

    Date: Oct 12, 2008 at 10:20 pm

    My wife just asked me, “who are you typing too?”
    I said, “Vegas Martin from The Pass Rush…”
    she says, “don’t do that, they are call you a noob”

    lol i was busting up and had to write it to you :)

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