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Phillips’ Week 7 College Football Picks

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 8th, 2008 | 1 Comment

Home-dogs came through again last week running my season total to 21-8, 72%. This week offers up several games, the most of any week so far.

1. Iowa at Indiana (+5): This is a game between two teams that simply cannot get going in the right direction. Iowa has dropped three consecutive games, 2 of the 3 losses coming on the road verse Pittsburgh and Michigan State. However, IU has lost the last three games as well, 2 of the 3 losses coming at home against Ball State and Michigan State. IU has won the last two meetings between these teams. This is a do or die game for both teams. Indiana’s offense has been able to average over 400 yards in total offense per game, while Iowa is just under the 400 yard mark. Indiana does have a balanced attack averaging just about 200 yards rushing and passing. I feel this game will come down to TOs and field position. IU made some bad mistakes early in the game verse MSU that eventually cost them the game. If IU can control the ball and avoid sloppy TOs then this game should be close. (Rating +2) IU had no answers for Iowa offense or defense, clearly a one sided battle. Iowa 45 IU 9

2. TCU at Colorado State (+15): This is clearly a trap game for TCU, if you look ahead on TCU’s schedule you see they only have five days between the game verse CSU and the game verse conference rival BYU, which will likely be a game that determines the conference champion. CSU has been really strong at home, 3-0 SU and 2-0 ATS. CSU is averaging 30 points per game at home compared to their season average of 23. While TCU has been impressive both on defense and offense, CSU will be ready for them. As with most home-dogs it comes down to ball possession and TOs, if they don’t make sloppy TOs then they should be able to keep the game within the 2 TD spread. (Rating +2) CSU, the only home-dog to have pride and take care of the ball, got the only cover for the dogs this weekend. TCU 13 CSU 7

3. Penn State at Wisconsin (+5): Wisconsin is thinking one thing and one thing only, winning this game. Wisconsin is coming off two disappointing losses, both games they could have or should have won. Wisconsin is returning 17 starters from last year and I know these guys will be looking to get their team back on track. PSU has pretty much done everything right so far this year, scoring at will over virtually all their competitors. However, they are going on the road into a difficult place to play and win. Wisconsin’s offense is scoring an average of 35 points per game at home. I think this game will be higher scoring than most expect, but look for the Badgers to pull out an impressive home upset. (Rating +4). Another totally one sided affair with PSU dominating in every category. You know you are in for a bad day when the punter kicks the ball inbounds on a punt for a total of 14 yards. PSU 48 WIS 7

4. Air Force at San Diego State (+10): This game is a play simply because it fits the home-dog system. There are very few stats that are in SDS’s favor in this match-up. The only weakness in this match-up seems to be that AF has played 3 of 5 games at home, one on a neutral site, and the other on the road at a weak Wyoming team. SDS has won 8 of 14 games against AF. The stats just look too much in favor of AF, so I will only make this a very small play. (Rating +1) Whenever you have an underdog winning at halftime you feel pretty good about the wager, but when they through a goose egg for the entire second half and play poor defense you still end up with a losing wager. AF 35 SDS 10

5. LA Lafayette at. North Texas (+21.5): Again, another match-up that simply does not look well on paper, but fits the system. There is one stat that jumps off the page in North Texas’s favor and that is they are 8-0 ATS the spread verse LA Laf. That is a great run. Even though North Texas has played horrible this year having yet to win a game, they know they play Laf. tough. NT takes to the road for the third consecutive week, which is never ideal. While Laf. will likely dominate the game, look for NT to show some heart at home and attempt to keep the game close. Both defenses are giving up an average of over 400 yards per game, while the offenses are each well over 300 yards. (Rating +2). If you would have told me NT would score 30 I would have called the game lock, bad thing is they scored 30, but still managed to lose the cover by giving up 59 points. LA 59 NT 30

6. Bowling Green at Akron (+1.5): Akron came from behind last weekend to beat Kent State on the road, moving their record to 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS, including covers against Wisconsin, Syracuse, Army, and Cincinnati. Bowling Green started the year off with an impressive win at Pitt, however they have failed to play up to that level again. Both teams appear to be evenly matched and this conference showdown should be a close game throughout. Their offensive and defensive stats are virtually equal with BG holding a slight edge in running defense. Look for TOs and ball control to be the key factors and watchout for the special teams to play an important role. (Rating +2). Another very tough loss, Akron gives up an unbelievable 23 points in the fourth quarter after clearly dominating the entire football game. BG 37 Akron 33

7. Kansas State @ Texas A&M (+3): The experts and the general public are picking KState to win this game. However, the line has moved from +3.5 to +2.5, so the money is going on A&M to keep this game close. Neither team has been very impressive so far this year in any productive category. It is interesting that KState is 2-8 ATS over their last 10 games on a grass field, as their home surface is a synthetic TurfGrass. Texas A&M has won the last 5 games in the series and hopefully that will give them some confidence to come out and possibly turn their season around so they can qualify for a bowl game. The loser of this game will find it difficult to make a bowl game as they will have to play several tough conference games the rest of the way out. Look for this game to be close. A&M will need to take care of the ball as they have been prone to turning the ball over this year. I like A&M to play tough at home and bring home a win. (Rating +2) TAM was never in this one as they were awful from the start of the game. KSU 44 TAM 30

We got off to a bad start this week with a poor performance by FAU on Tuesday night. Home-dog plays are still an impressive 21-9 (70%) on the year. Hopefully we can bounce back this weekend with some smart performances by the dogs.

There was a great article posted on vegasinsider commenting on parity in the NCAA and why underdogs should be considered every week by bettors looking to make a profit from week to week. The link is attached below:

Other Games:

1. Nebraska (+21) at Texas Tech: While TT has passed all over almost every team they have played, I don’t believe they have been truly challenged. I think 21 is a big number to lay against a solid Nebraska team. While Nebraska has not been overly impressive, their offense is putting up over 33 points per game and over 400 yards of total offense. I think the defenses are at least going to slow these two strong offenses down, at least some. The over is an astounding 71.5, while these teams sure could put up those numbers, I believe it will be a much tighter game. Look for Neb. to try and establish the run, keep possession of the ball, and keep that TT offense off the field. Look for one stat at the end of the game, time of possession, if Neb wins that category then they will cover the 21 point spread. (Rating +4). Nebraska was thinking upset throughout the game, but couldn’t hold on in overtime losing a tough one. TT 37 Neb 31

Record this week 1-7. -11 units.

     Overall Under-dog Total: 22-15 Total -5 units.

Other Plays this week: 1-0, 4 units.

     Overall Total: Even.

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