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Missouri Tigers/Texas Longhorns Pick & Prediction Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 16th, 2008 | Comment »


The most intriguing game on the college football schedule for week 8 has to be he No. 12 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 1 Texas Longhorns. Both teams are averaging more than 45 PPG. That’s ridiculous! We both know that both teams are offensive juggernauts. Missouri is averaging over 550 yards of offense a game and Texas is averaging 462 yards. Texas has the slightly better defense. Texas has given up an average of only 15.3 PPG while Missouri’s average is 21.3 PPG. What’s more impressive with Texas is their play against the run. On the ground, Texas is only allowing 1.9 yards per attempt.

So far Texas has been playing brilliant football at home where they’ve only given up an average of 10 points and 270 yards a game while scoring an average of 52 PPG, compared to Missouri’s 17 points and 352 yards allowed on the road to Nebraska. But of course Texas should roll over teams like Arkansas, Rice, and Florida Atlantic at home.

Last week the Tigers lost to the Oklahoma State Cowboys at home 28-23 and they were a 2 touchdown favorite. Texas is coming off a big emotional win in the Red River Rivalry where they topped the Oklahoma Sooners 45-35 (as a 7-point underdog) in what was one of the best college games of the year. The key to Missouri’s loss last week was Chase Daniel’s 3 INTs. He threw for 390 yards, but you just can’t turnover the ball like that. In his previous 5 games, Chase threw 15 TDs and only 1 INT. Chase is also completing over 75% of his passes. Chase is coming into this game with 2,055 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs. Colt McCoy has been every bit as impressive, if not more impressive than Chase Daniels. Colt is completing 79% of his passes, has thrown for 1,557 yards, 17 TDs, and 3 INTs.

The most telling stat in this one: these teams records against the spread. Texas is an impressive 6-0 ATS compared to Missouri’s 3-3 record ATS. Last year Texas beat up on Missouri when the game was played in Missouri 51-20 and much of the core of these two teams are still in tact from last season.

This may not be a great game to bet on as it will be a back and forth offensive showing with the W most likely to be determined by who has the ball last, but with the home-field advantage and defensive edge, I’ll go with the Longhorns covering in this one.

Prediction — Texas 42 – Missouri 35

Pick Against the Spread: Texas -5.5 — Confidence 3/5
Pick Straight Up: Texas — Confidence 4/5

Result — Texas 56 – Missouri 31

The Longhorns jumped out to a quick 35-0 lead and the game was all but over at that point. After the Oklahoma and Missouri games, Texas is one step closer to the National Championship and is clearly the best college team at this point in the season. Who will they face? Alabama, Georgia, USC, or Penn State? I guess that’s what makes college football great.

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