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NFL Week 8 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 22nd, 2008 | 5 Comments


Last week I saw a great opportunity to get back into the game with an 8 team teaser that paid 10:1. There were a lot of games that I would put into the lock category with the extra 7 points such as the Titans -2 over the Chiefs, Texans -2.5 over Lions, Steelers -2.5 over Bengals, Browns +14.5 over Redskins. I thought Jets/Raiders and Bears/Vikings could go either way, but both those games worked out. It was the Saints that let us down. Before the game, Saints +10 looked like a very solid bet. All the Saints would have to do is score 17 and they should cover. Well, a Shockey fumble and a Drew Brees interception led to 14 points, Reggie Bushed injured his knee right before the second half and the game was pretty much over at that point.


Jets -13 at home over the Chiefs looks enticing especially knowing that the Chiefs already suck and will be without their only offensive weapon Larry Johnson due to a suspension. Jets -6 in a teaser card should work out beautifully. My Eagles are a 9-point favorite at home. I like Vegas’s confidence in the Birds, but don’t take the Falcons lightly. They aren’t 4-2 by accident. They are playing good football and Matt Ryan is looking as good as any QB in the league right now thanks to the explosive Roddy White. Cowboys may have their 3rd straight loss on the radar as Tony Romo will be out and the Bucs are rolling, especially on defense. I like the Panthers -4.5 at home over the Cardinals. When the Panthers are at home, they’re a team to reckon with and the Cardinals struggle on the road. None of the other spreads are really whooing me. I’m going to take this week off and there aren’t enough games I really like to try another big teaser.


The Raiders are struggling on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens shut out the Raiders. They should be able to hold them to under 10. The Miami game should have Joe Flacco’s confidence boosted after a dismal performance against the Colts where he threw 3 INTs. At least he completed over 70% of his passes in those two games. 7 is a lot to give up on a team whose offense makes you hold your breath every time they’re on the field. If you want to take the Ravens, you better hope the Ravens D bails you out this game with a few turnovers. This line also has the potential to move to 6.5, so maybe wait until then.


I think this London game stuff is bogus. Goodell, they don’t care about football over there! Most of them don’t even know the rules. It also sucks that they’re taking a home game away from the Saints. I wouldn’t bet on this game as it will be a mess with unmotivated players who are pissed they have to take a long flight to play a game in front of a handful of people who really aren’t that into the game. Last year’s London game was the Giants and Dolphins and it was a fiasco. It was a low scoring mess and the Dolphins (1-15 last year) covered against the Giants. I wouldn’t touch this game. With Reggie Bush out, I’ll take the Chargers for the sake of picking this game.


No Larry Johnson, no defense. The Chiefs are terrible. I like the Jets, but hate high spreads. I would like teasing this this Jets -6 with another game.


The Dolphins had their let down game last week against a very good defense. The Bills are on top the NFC East for good reason. I like the Bills in this one, but Miami is one of the teams this year that I just don’t want to bet against because once you think they’re down, they’ll come out the next week and totally change your opinion on them.


Tony Romo will be out. With the Bucs outstanding defense, I think they’ll pile up the sacks against the immobile Brad Johnson. The Bucs are 2nd in INTs this season, so don’t be surprised in Johnson throws another 3 INTs this game. The Cowboys defense is also having issues as they can’t stop the run against physical runners, which should lead to Earnest Graham having a big day. If Romo stays out this game, I like the Bucs. As an Eagles fan, I’m pretty much hoping the Cowboys drop this one and then the Cowboys have the Redskins and Giants coming up, so they be going down the path of doom.


As an Eagles fan I’m confident that the Eagles will win this one at home off the bye week, but I definitely wouldn’t call it a lock and I think the handicappers are severely underestimating the Falcons, who are also coming off a bye week. The Falcons look dangerous as they are a 4-2 team. How can a 4-2 team be a 9-point underdog against a 3-3 team? The spread on this should be Eagles -6.5. I expect the Eagles to pull this one out, but it won’t be easy and it will probably have me on the edge of my seat for most of the game. The Falcons defense is suspect at time, but Roddy White is one of the most dangerous receivers in the league and the Eagles should double team him on every play. Matt Ryan is also looking legit. The Eagles will also be bringing back some weapons as Brian Westbrook has had some extra time to heal up and Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis should be back in action, which should get the Eagles passing game going. The Eagles better take the Falcons seriously, they are by far one of the most improved teams since last year (along with Miami).


How about them Rams upsetting the Redskins and then the Cowboys. Matt Cassel is coming along, but the Broncos defense is horrible! I’m still not sold on Cassel’s abilities and attribute last week’s 3 TDs due to a terrible Denver defense and a lot of luck. Last week Cutler was injured on the first play of the game and they had no running game to bail them out. If Steven Jackson has a big game, I’ll say the Rams cover. This one could go either way with the spread, but I like taking the 7 points more than giving them up. Rookie Donnie Avery is also stepping up and making plays for the Rams.


When the Panthers are at home, they look about as good as any team in the NFL. The Cardinals are notorious for being terrible on the road. I think that making this pick solely on these teams home/away reputations is the way to go. The Panthers shut down Drew Brees last week, so Kurt Warner is in for a very tough game. However, the Cardinals offense is always capable of putting up points and they may get Anquan Bolden back this week. I’d still go with the Panthers at home.


The Lions went down 21-0 last week and were miraculously able to cover 9.5 last week on a garbage field goal in the final minutes of the game. I’ll take the Redskins -7.5. The Lions are terrible! Teasing Redskins -0.5 with the Jets -6 looks like a good play. Maybe add Bucs +9, Ravens -0, and Rams +14 in that card too.


The Jags as the home team off the bye week is the way to go. They had an impressive win on the road against the Broncos. Kellen Winslow is out with a suspension. The Browns are not looking good on the road. I’ll go with the Jags.


If the Steelers offensive line can protect Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers should win. However, if the Giants defensive line wins that battle, then the Giants will come out on top. That’s the key matchup that will decide this game.


I like the coaching change in San Fran. Maybe Singleterry can show the 49ers how to play some defense. The 49ers are due for a win and they’ll be at home. They’re not playing terrible. They’ve just faced a very good stretch of teams lately. The Seahawks are very bad. I expect Gore to have a big day and lead this team to a much needed W.


Carson Palmer will be out again. The Bengals are in bad shape and the Texans score points in bunches when they’re at home.


I’ll go with the Titans. The Colts are struggling against the run and that’s what the Titans do best. Plus the Titans dominate on defense and the Colts offensive struggles continued again last week.


In summary, there aren’t too many spreads I love, but if you want to try a teaser, I like the way this card looks:

7 Team Teaser: Jets -6 (at home over Chiefs minus Larry Johnson), Texans -2.5 (at home over Bengals minus Carson Palmer), Redskins -0.5 (over Lions), Bucs +9 (over Dallas minus Romo), Rams +14 (over Patriots), Ravens -0 (at home over Raiders), Jaguars -0 (at home over Browns).  4/7 are home teams, which is good news. As far as the road teams go: I doubt the Lions will top the Redskins, so I like that one in a pick ’em.  The Rams +14 and Bucs +9 should be safe too. You may want to take those two teams out and go with a 5 team teaser to have a safer card since you don’t want to have to bet against Dallas at home in a must win situation and on the Rams, who could easily have a let down after 2 big wins.

5 Responses to NFL Week 8 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Chris Hines

    Date: Oct 25, 2008 at 7:43 am

    what are some of the ratings you would give to the NFL spread games you like?

  2. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 25, 2008 at 10:04 am

    I would say betting against the Lions and going Washington -7.5 is the way to go. I also like Carolina -4 at home since Arizona plays terrible on the road and the Panthers play awesome at home, but you never know. It may be one of those shootout type games.

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