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Posted by in College Football Picks on October 21st, 2008 | 11 Comments

I have put together 10 games that appear to me be strong solid plays. I will list the picks in order of strength with 1 being the strongest play and 10 being the weakest play, but remember I like all these picks. There is only a quick description of the games. I will be posting home dog plays later this week with more detailed analysis. So here we go:

1. Boston College (+3) at UNC: BC is playing great and UNC is coming off a tough loss on the road verse Virginia. Looking at the stats BC dominates in average total yards, time of possession, causing turnovers, and BC’s defense allows over 100 yards less per contest then UNC’s defense. Take the points.

2. Auburn (+3.5) at WVU (notice this game is on Thursday): This game should be very tight. Auburn dominates time of possession which will be important in keeping White off the field. They are causing at least 2 turnovers a game and hold their opposition to around 100 yards rushing per game. Take the points.

3. Middle Tennessee St at Mississippi State (-11): This simply comes down to the poor performance of MTS on the road 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. They have allowed an average of 31 points on the road and have only managed to score an average of 18. On the other hand, MSU has played well at home allowing less than 10 points and causing at least 2 turnovers and going 2-1 SU and 2-0 ATS. MSU should control the ball and simply dominate this game.

4. Eastern Michigan at Ball State (-24): I know this is a big line, but Ball State has been on fire. I have been following them and making money off them since last year, so I am not just jumping on board because they have made the Top 25. They are not only 7-0 SU, but a perfect 6-0 ATS. EMU is giving up almost 33 points on average on the road and only scoring about an average of 18. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road. With a week off look for Ball State to come back focused and EMU shouldn’t pose to much of a challenge.

5. Duke at Vandy (-9.5): Vandy is not as good as they seemed at the start of the year, but they are still a solid football team. Duke is having a good season by their standards, but they haven’t had to play on the road that much and coming off a pounding at the hands of Miami I believe they are in store for another blowout. Vandy is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home.

6. Baylor at Nebraska (-11): Nebraska looked solid at Iowa State last week after a tough loss at TexTech. Now they finally return home. Baylor got pounded by OKST and now go back on the road. Baylor is just not that solid of a football team and Nebraska is playing solid fundamental football right now.

7. S. Florida at Louisville (+5): Louisville plays much better at home and their stats are almost identical to S. Florida. Louisville will be focused and play tough D throughout. S. Florida has played decent on road, but I think if Louisville can play solid run defense as they have throughout the year then this game will be won in the trenches and I give the edge to Louisville in that category. Take the points.

8. Rice at Tulane (-2): Rice has been terrible on the road, giving up an average of 47 points per. Tulane hasn’t been great, but both of their wins have come at home. Rice’s D is giving up almost 500 yards per. Tulane should win this game with ease.

9. Bowling Green at Norther Illinois (-8): NIU has been rocked solid at home this year, 3-0 SU, and allowing just over a touchdown while scoring almost 35 per. BG’s D is giving up over 21 points on the road. I just see NIU playing strong D and making good decisions to get the win.

10. Penn State at Ohio State (+2): There aren’t a lot of stats to argue in favor of OSU covering, but I don’t think PSU has been playing at as high a level as they were at the beginning of the year and they definetly haven’t played anyone as good as OSU. I think this comes down to PSU’s ability to contain Pryor as OSU has been a much better team with him as the QB. The second aspect of this game comes down to PSU’s offense and OSU’s ability to control this high scoring offense. However, I just believe Tressel will have the better game plan and OSU will get the win. It has been a long time since PSU has won at OSU.


  1. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 21, 2008 at 9:27 pm

    I may be bias as a Pennsylvania native, but don’t be surprised if Penn State spoils your day. Ohio State has been on a tear and they are a different team than the team that faced USC, but Penn State is legit. The Buckeyes may have the home field and may be a better bet to take, but don’t write off Penn State.

  2. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 21, 2008 at 10:33 pm

    It is a tough call, but just like most other teams it is pretty hard to go undefeated for the year. This will definetly be PSU’s toughest challenge left on their schedule. Just looks like a good spot to catch PSU.

  3. Vegas Martin

    Date: Oct 22, 2008 at 11:31 am

    I like the Auburn, Vandy, Ball St., and Nebraska picks. WVU is garbage (only 17 points against Syracuse, who allows an average of 34), Auburn’s D should win that one. Duke has been impressive at times in the beginning of the season, but I don’t see them continuing those efforts on the road.

    I’ll have to disagree on South Florida. The Lou isn’t too impressive and they’ve dropped two home games to UCONN and Kentucky. South Florida is better than both those teams. As long as Matt Grothe plays well and not like he did against Pittsburgh, South Florida should beat Louisville. I’ll take the Bulls in this one.

  4. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 22, 2008 at 1:26 pm

    I think the run defense is the key to the Louisville game. Plus, UCONN was a solid team when they beat Louisville, they a weak now b/c they have lost their starting QB and RB. Kentucky can play with anyone as you will see this weekend when they play Florida. Even though Kentucky is banged up they will likely cover that 25 point spread they are getting at Florida. Kentucky would have been #11 on my parlay ticket. S. Florida’s only tough games have come at home vs. Kansas and Pitt, and you can’t say that Pitt is even that good of a team. Besides that who has S. Florida even played? Their schedule is pretty weak. Plus they are a home dog and different surfaces. S. Florida still hasn’t proven they can play with the big boys yet and I don’t think they will win this one.

  5. John

    Date: Oct 23, 2008 at 11:37 pm

    ouch, one and done, thats another thing i hate about parlays……….

  6. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 24, 2008 at 4:48 am

    Yea. At least the game was on Thursday so I can play another parlay with the rest of the teams. Up 17-3 I was feeling great about the pick at halftime, but it wasn’t meant to be as they didn’t find the endzone one time in the second half.

  7. John

    Date: Oct 24, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    good luck man, i have a 9 gamer myself, all saturday…. the closest i came on a 10 game parlay was the first 8 correct, ,the next 2 lost, and i bet 50bucks to win 35g’s, now that sucks…..

  8. John

    Date: Oct 24, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    how to keep an auburn tiger out of your yard? put a goalpost in it……

  9. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 26, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    Auburn just started the whole weekend of bad luck for me in college football. It is always good to get win number one, but when you have to wait until sometime late afternoon on Saturday to get that first win, you are in for a long weekend. Hopefully I can come out with something better next week.

  10. John

    Date: Oct 27, 2008 at 12:02 pm

    yea, i hear that, same thing happened to me, who do you like this week?

  11. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 27, 2008 at 3:43 pm

    I will be posting a parlay pick sometime Thursday if not sooner. There are several games that at first glance I like, but I need to look more closely at those games.

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