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Phillips’ MNF Underdog Outright Win Lock of the Year

Posted by in NFL Picks on October 27th, 2008 | Comment »

Indianapolis (+165) outright win over Tennessee

Examining the stats Tennessee is clearly the favorite and rightly deserves to be, however the Colts will win this game. First, what is the difference between Tennessee and Baltimore? Statistically almost nothing. Both defenses give up about 250 yards per game (rushing under 100 passing almost exactly 179) and both offenses average about 300 yards (Rushing close to 150, passing about 160). Second, what did the Colts do against do to the Ravens? Colts 31 Ravens 3. Thirdly, why were the Colts able to dominate the Ravens? Well Manning and the Colts got their timing back and looked the explosvie offense of old. Manning is still in that preseason form, he missed the preseason because the knee surgery, and he is still looking to find that rhythmn with his offense. So he is going to have some games where he looks that the old Manning and some games that he simply looks old. However, after last weeks complete embarrassment, I am sure the offense will be much more focused and ready to go. The defense will have to do the same thing they did when they played the Ravens. I am sure the Colts defense will pack the box with 8 or even 9 guys to stop the explosive running game of Titans and this should cause more pressure on Collins, forcing him to make quick decisions and possibly poor decisions. The Colts defense has to cause a few turnovers tonight for the Colts to win. In my opinion turnovers is the most critical aspect of this game. If the Colts win the TO category they will win this game. The Colts are 5-0 ATS on Monday Night Football. I know that recently the Titans have had the upperhand in this series, but tonight the Colts will be the smarter team. I know a lot of “experts” will be all over the Titans tonight expecting a blowout, but I think the value play is to take the Colts to win outright.

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