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PHILLIPS’ WEEK 10: A RUN DOWN OF EVERY GAME ON TAP

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 27th, 2008 | 18 Comments

Some of you, I am sure, have paid money for picks, as most of us have, but don’t you hate it when you want to watch a game and put some money on it, only to find that no one has analyzed the game and given you their two cents. Well this week, that will not be the case. If you want to have some insight on a game you want to drop money on then you will find an analysis of that game here at thepassrush.

Tuesday

1. Buffalo Bulls (+2) at Ohio Bobcats: Ohio is pretty banged up after losing their back-up QB and RB last out. Buffalo is pretty healthy and has played several solid football games this year covering against Pitt, Missouri, and Central Michigan and they beat Temple. Ohio has played a couple tough games covering against Ohio State and Northwestern. Buffalo holds a slight edge in total yards per game, but Ohio’s defense is stronger. I think this game comes down to the success of Buffalo through the air. They pass for about 250 yards per, but Ohio’s defense is only allowing about 180 yards against the pass. Ohio may find it more difficult to score b/c of their injury problems, but their defense should keep this game tight. Buffalo’s defense is very weak giving up almost 400 yards per. This game should be very tight and if Buffalo’s offense can score then they should win this game against a banged up Ohio team. (Rating +2) Final Score: Buffalo 32 Ohio 19

2. Houston (-8) at Marshall: While I don’t generally like going against home dogs sometimes they just simply don’t match up. Houston’s offense is scoring almost 40 per and gaining over 500 yards in total offense. While Houston’s defense is simply poor, Marshall’s D is even worse giving up well over 400 yards per contest. Marshall has had difficulty scoring averaging only 19 points per game. In the last 3 games Marshall’s offense has had even more difficulty scoring averaging only 11 points per. Look for Houston’s offense to continue to roll against the weak defense of Marshall. Lay the points with Houston. (Rating +3) Final Score Marshall 37 Houston 23

Thursday:

1. South Florida (-2.5) at Cincinnati: This is a very interesting game to handicap. SFla did exactly what I thought they would do last weekend against Louisville, they lost as a 4 point road favorite. For a second straight week SFla goes on the road as a favorite. Cin. is coming off a very disappointing loss to UCONN, as many experts were picking Cin to take their program to the next level with a big win, but it wasn’t to be. Both teams are suffering through many injuries, but Cin. has three injured QBs, I believe it will be difficult to find any other ready QB to go against a strong S. Fla team. Statistically, these teams match up pretty well with S.Fla holding a slight advantage with their talented offense. I will take S. Fla even though they have not done that well on the road. However, I think Cin’s lack of leadership experience at QB will be their downfall. Take S. Fla. (Rating +4) Cin 24 SFlo. 10

Saturday

1. West Virginia at Connecticut(+4): Both teams are coming off great wins last week. Again these teams match-up pretty well statistically, however I give a slight advantage to UCONN as they hold the edge in total yards and passing. Both teams play solid defense and that will play an important roll in this game. UCONN’s run defense has been very tough holding their opponents to less than 75 yards rushing per, which is critical as WVU ran all over a very tough Auburn defense. I like the fact that WVU 0-2 on the road and UCONN is 5-0 at home. Take UCONN plus the points. (Rating +1) WVU 35 UCONN 13

2. Central Michigan at Indiana(-2.5): At first glance you see a very talented CMU squad who has been playing solid football throughout this year coming into Indiana who has played about as poor as team could play with such high expectations. While CMU’s offense has been solid their defense has been the exact opposite, giving up over 400 yards of offense and almost 35 points on the road. CMU has been perfect at home, but 2-2 on the road. Indiana comes off a big win over Northwestern and possibly is now on the right track to put a string together of solid games. I like Indiana to take advantage CMU’s poor defense and their home field advantage. I also wonder what Vegas oddsmakers are hinting at by making IU the favorite in this contest. Lay the points with IU. (Rating +1) CMU 37 IU 34

3. Wisconsin at Michigan State(-4.5): Both teams are coming off big wins over the weekend and look to keep rolling with a big conference win this weekend. MSU has played very well at home this year and I look for that to continue because while Wisconsin matches up well against MSU their defense has struggled on the road this year. Wisconsin’s D is giving up almost 25 points per on the road while MSU’s D is only allowing 15 points per at home. MSU’s defense against the run has been strong all year and if they continue to play the same run defense as they have all year then it will put lots of pressure on the young Wisconsin QB. MSU’s D should force a few TOs and if MSU can take advantage of those mistakes MSU will win large. Lay the points with MSU. (Rating +2) MSU 25 WIS 24

4. Northwestern (+6.5) at Minnesota: NW is coming off a tough loss to IU dropping them to 6-2 overall. Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 at home this year. However, NW holds the statistical advantage in offense and defense. This should be a low scoring defensive battle throughout. The underdog in this series has covered 8 of the last 9. I see this game being close throughout with turnovers and time of possession being critical. Take NW plus the points. (Rating +1) NORTHWESTERN 24 MINN 17

5. Miami (+1.5) at Virginia: Another great match-up pits two teams who are playing overall great football, which should make for a great game. While Virginia has been playing well their defense has still struggled allowing more than 330 yards per while Miami’s D has allowed only about 280. Miami’s offense is clearly outscoring Virginia’s by almost 10 points per. Miami is 3-0 ATS on the road. Take the points with Miami, but this game should be very close with Miami coming away with an important win. (Rating +3) MIA. 24 VIR. 17

6. Air Force at Army (+10): This should be another very tight competitive game. AF is having one of their better years, but Army has come on as of late. They have won 3 of 4 after losing their first four games, with the one loss coming on the road in OT. You have to give a slight edge in defense to Army as they allow only about 116 yards rushing compared to AF’s almost 150 per game. The real question comes down to the passing game. These teams rarely pass the ball, but AF has a better aerial attack than Army. I still see this game being a controlled possession game with Time of Possession playing a critical role. Take the points with Army as they should be able to keep this game close. (Rating +1) AF 16 ARMY 7

7. Michigan (+1.5) at Purdue: Neither of these teams has a whole lot to play for, but I do see some value in making a play on Michigan. When you compare the stats of the two teams you notice Purdue’s offensive numbers are very similar to the numbers that UM’s defense puts up, so theoretically they will put up similar numbers. A key to that is whether Curtis Painter (QB) is able to go as he is questionable. On the other hand, Purdue’s defense gives up many more yards and points than UM’s offense normally puts up. Therefore, UM should see an increase in production this week in performance. So take the points as Michigan should win this one outright. (Rating +2) PURDUE 48 UM 42

8. Auburn (+5.5) at Mississippi: I cannot believe a team with as solid of a defense as Auburn has, may lose 4 games in a row. Auburn is a terrible 1-7 ATS and 4-4 SU. Miss is also 4-4 SU, but a solid 4-3 ATS. They have been impressive in almost every game with the biggest surprise coming with their upset of Florida. Auburn’s D was not itself last out against WVU, but you almost have to believe will be much tougher this week. Miss defense has not been that impressive, but has done enough to keep the games close so that Miss offense can have a chance to win. I see Auburn having a better offensive attack this week and their defense looking to make ammends for last week’s poor performance. Take the points with Auburn. (Rating +2) MISS 17 AUB 7

9. Kansas St. at Kansas (-11): Both teams are coming off tough losses at home. Both of these teams have great offenses and can easily put up 40+ every game. Kansas is 4-1 ATS at home, the only loss coming verse the high powered offense of TexTech. KSt. 1-2 ATS on the road and are only 1-4 ATS on Turf fields. After a loss Kansas comes back and plays very good football. Even though this game will focus on the offenses, I believe Kansas’s defense is minorly better than KSt’s D. Lay the points with KU as they come back with strong win this weekend. (Rating +3). KU 52 KSU 21

10. Tulsa at Arkansas(+7): While Arkansas is not that good of a team they are still by far the best team Tulsa has played all year. Secondly, even though I don’t normally put much weight on the history of the match-ups, Tulsa hasn’t beaten Arkansas in the last 10 meetings. While Tulsa has probably the most explosive offense in the nation, they have put up those numbers against terrible teams. Arkansas is pretty strong against the pass allowing less than 200 yards per game, which is very respectable. Arkansas offense is nothing to brag about, but they will be able to score against Tulsa’s weak defense, which should make this game pretty close. I actually think Arkansas pulls the upset, but take the points. (Rating +3) AK 30 TUL 23

11. Kent State at Bowling Green(-7.5): While this game should be close throughout it should be high scoring. Kent defense allows almost 400 yards per and has even played worse on the road. Kent is only 1-3 ATS on the road giving up almos 40 points per. BG has not been a whole lot better going 0-3 ATS at home, but a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road. Their defense is slightly better than Kent, but nothing to brag about. Kent could keep this game close by controlling the ball and avoiding turnovers, but I just don’t think that will happen. Lay the points with BG. (Rating +1) BG 45 KST. 30

12. Colorado at Texas A&M(-3): TexAM’s offense has keep them in most games because their defense has simply been of no help allowing over 30 points per game and over 400 yards. It is hard to believe, but Colorado’s defense has even been worse than that on the road, allowing 44 points and almost 450 yards. Colorado’s offense should get more scoring chances as they are only averaging 7 points per game on the road, but I don’t think they will be able to keep up with the scoring of TexAM as they score over 21 points at home and go for over 400 yards per contest. (Rating +3) TAM 24 COL. 17

13. Eastern Michigan (+17) at Western Michigan: This is another in-state rivarly game that should actually be a pretty close game. WMU offense relies heavily on their passing attack and can put some points on the board. However, EMU’s defense has been solid against the pass all year allowing less than 200 yards per contest. WMU will have success running the ball, but they don’t run the ball all that often. EMU has been able to put points on the board scoring around 21 points per contest. I think WMU will come away with the win, but it should be closer than the big spread. Take the points with EMU. (Rating +3) WMU 31 EM 10

14. San Diego State at Wyoming (-3): This is a game between two terrible defenses (they simply can’t be worse). SDS defense is absolutely terrible against the run. While Wy’s offense is not a lot better than their defense they do at least attempt to run the ball much more often than they pass. That should work well against SDS’s D as they give up almost 300 yards rushing per. Wyoming has not covered against the spread at in their last 9, but they will get the chance this weekend. Lay the points with Wyoming. (Rating +1). WYO 35 SDS 10

15. Texas (-6.5) at Texas Tech: I have been pretty good playing against TexTech this year and I think that trend should continue. I do believe this game will be closer than many expect. This game will come down to Texas’s defense vs. TexTech offense. Texas is not great against the pass as they have given up almost 275 yards per. However, they are giving up less than 20 points per contest, which is far less than TT’s average just below 50. I like Texas to win this game by 10-14 points, so if you like this game, I would jump on it early, especially below that 7 point spread. Remember though, I think this game will be closer than expected, unless Texas’s defense causes a bunch of TOs, which is possible. Lay the points with Texas. (Rating +2)

16. Pittsburgh (+5.5) at Notre Dame: This rivarly dates back a long ways and it has been a while since these two teams have played a real meaningful game against each other. It is interesting that Pitt is a perfect 3-0 SU on the road, while ND is a perfect 4-0 SU at home. ND has a decent run attack, but primarily rely on their passing game, which should play right into Pitt’s very strong pass defense. It is amazing that Pitt has allowed an average of less than 200 yards passing per contest, but even more impressive is that on the road their defense is allowing just over 100 yards passing. If Pitt’s D can cause a few turnovers and put give their offense good field position then Pitt should continue the success on the road. (Rating +3) PITT 36 ND 33

17. Kentucky at Mississippi State(-3): Statistically I like Kentucky, but they are so banged up it is really tough to analyze this game. They have lost so many key players that their current stats are not an indication of the team that is currently taking the field. Kentucky is playing back to back road games and Mississippi State has played pretty well at home. MSU defense has been strong at home and should take advantage of the injuries that have plagued Kentucky. Lay the points with MSU. (Rating +2) UK 14 MSU 13

18. Fresno State (-5.5) at Louisiana Tech: FS’s offense has been clearly more productive than LT. They out rush, out pass, and out score LT by a considerable margin. FS’s offense has been really clicking as of late, while LT has played sub-par as of late. FS is a perfect 4-0 SU on the road while LT is a perfect 3-0 ATS at home. I like the fact that LT has home field advantage, but I simply don’t belive it is going to be enough in this contest. I simply think FS will outplay LT. Lay the points with FS. (Rating +2) LT 38 FSU 35  

19. Missouri at Baylor (+20): It is very difficult to bet against Missouri as their offense can easily score 60 or 70 on just about anyone. However, Baylor’s defense, while not great, is still a relatively solid defense team. They give up about 350 yards in total offense and allow about 26 points. However, Baylor’s offense has put up solid numbers at home, over 400 yards in total offense and over 30 points per game. Mizz defense has been terrible on the road allowing almost 500 yards per contest and almost 37 points. If Mizz scores less than 50 then Baylor should cover as a home-dog. Take the points. (Rating +2) MIZZ 31 BAY 28

20. Hawaii(-7) at Utah State: Hawaii has been playing decent football as of late, posting wins over Fresno State, Louisiana Tech, and Nevada. Their only loss coming against Boise State in their last four. Their offensive production is also up over their last four. Utah State continues to struggle as they have lost their last four, their only win coming against a very weak Idaho team. I just don’t see Utah State playing much better against Hawaii. Lay the points wiht Hawaii. (Rating +2) UST. 30 HAW 14

21. Arkansas St. (+24) vs. Alabama: This pick may come as some what of surprise, but ASt has played pretty good football all year long. Their offensive stats are actually better than Alabama, but that is due somewhat to their strengths of schedules. ArkSt. has had two weeks to prepare for this match-up. Underdogs coming off a bye week, tend to play pretty well and cover slightly better than other underdogs. So considering the talent of the offense and the time they have had to prepare for this big game I think taking the points is a solid play. (Rating +3) ALA 35 ARK ST. 0

22. Oregon at California(-3): Cals defense has been pretty solid holding teams to around 300 yards of total offense (about 210 passing, 90 rushing) per game. The are 4-0 SU at home and have held teams to less than 20 points at home. It should be a great match-up between Oregon’s rushing offense and Cal’s rush defense. Oregon goes for over 200 yards a game rushing. I am going to have to side with the home team and their defense in this match-up. Lay the points with Cal. (Rating +2) CAL 26 ORE. 16

23. Florida St.(+1) at Georgia Tech: Both defenses have been outstandig this year. FSU’s D is holding teams to less than 250 yards in total offense and giving up only an average of 16 points. However, that D has not been the same on the road where offensive have put up almost 300 yards and 28 points. Tech’s D has been very tough at home allowing less than 300 yards in total offense and only 10 points per. Tech is 5-1 ATS while FSU is 3-2. I think time of possession and ball control will be vital as these teams will both try to establish the run. Look for a couple big plays to be the difference and I give the edge to FSU’s passing game to come through with a couple of big plays, which I believe will be the difference. Take the points with FSU. (Rating +2) GT 31 FSU 28

24. Florida (-5.5) at Georgia: First off I think it is big disadvantage that Georgia is playing a home game when that game is beig played in Jacksonville. Florida is a statistically better team overall, but both teams are playing good football right now. I believe Florida’s defense will cause an interception or two which will setup Florida’s offense with a few easy scores, which should be the difference in the game. Lay the points with Florida as this is not really a road game for them. (Rating +3) FL. 49 UG 10

25. Clemson at Boston College(-4.5): BC is coming of a very disappointing loss last week as they looked terrible at UNC. Clemson is coming off a bye week and should be very prepared for this match-up. Clemson’s passing game is better, but BC’s rushing game is better. Therefore we must look to the defenses to see who will win this match-up. Clemson’s offense has struggled on the road only scoring an average of 7 points. Both defenses have been strong allowing only an average of 12 points per. Because of the success of the BC’s defense at home I give them the slight edge. I just think Clemson has to improve too much compared to how they have played so far this season to go into BC and keep this within a TD. Lay the points with BC. (Rating +1) CLEMSON 27 BC 21

26. Duke at Wake Forest (-7.5): I was shocked to see the line so high for this match-up, especially with how impressive Duke has been this year. However, Duke has a tough task this week as they have to play back-to-back road games in conference. Duke’s offense is averaging 23 points per, but on the road they are only averaging 5 points and overall have not been the same team on road. WF has been consistent both at home and on the road. I just think there must be something behind that large line and the fact Duke will have to play another great road game to cover. Lay the points. (Rating +3). Note: if you like this pick you should get on it early as the line has been increasing since it came out.  WF 33 DUKE 30

27. Iowa State (+31) at Oklahoma State: There are so many things to conisder in this game I could write for days. OSU played great against Texas, but still came away with a loss. Some might say they are due for let down after that tough loss, others would say they might take out their frustration from the loss on a poor Iowa State team. Statistically these teams are not that far apart. OKSt. clearly has the better offense, but ISU’s is respectable averaging almost 30 points a game. However, they have not been as good on the road only scoring 15 points. OKSt defense at home is giving up almost 27 points per game and ISU should be able to score somewhere between 14-28 points, which would give them a good chance of covering. Take the points with ISU. (Rating +2) OKST. 59 ISU 17 

28. Iowa (+1.5) at Illinois: This is another very good match-up and should be a close game throughout. Ill’s offense gains more yards and scores a few more points per game. However Iowa’s offense is no slouch either averaging almost 400 yards per and almost 30 points. Iowa’s defense is very tough, as they always are, allowing less than 300 yards of total offense and only 11 points per. If Iowa’s defense plays tough and Iowa’s offense is able to establish the run and keep Illinois’s offense off the field, then Iowa should win. Take the points with Iowa. (Rating +2) ILL. 27 UI 24

29. Temple (+7.5) at Navy: Another difficult match-up here pitting a very tough Navy offense (specifically running game) against the solid rush defense of Temple. It is hard to guess how a team will handle that unusual option offense, even great defenses can struggle against it sometimes. Temple’s D is weak against the pass, but that shouldn’t come into play that often. Navy’s defense has not been special and Temple should see in an increase in production from their offensive unit. If Temple’s D can slow down Navy then they will have a great chance to win this game. Take the points with Temple. (Rating +1) NAVY 33 TEM 27

30. North Texas (+17.5) at Western Kentucky: NT’s offense has been able to put up almost 400 yards in total yards per game, but simply continue to fail to put the ball in the endzone, averaging only 17 points and even less on the road. WKU’s offense also fails to put the ball in the in the endzone only averaging 18 points per game. NT should be able to score in this game and keep it fairly close. NT has been playing better as of late, but have failed to post a win for the year. Take the points with NT. (Rating +2) NT 51 WK 40

31. Washington St (+30) at Stanford: There isn’t a whole lot good to say about WSU and they have played worse the last three games. They have given up almost 500 yards of total offense per game and almost 50 points. Stanford doesn’t have a whole lot to brag about either as their D is giving up over 20 points and almost 400 yards. Stanford’s offense scores around 28 points and will definetly score more than that this game. The spread is so large though I just don’t know if it will be that big of a blowout, but it could be. WSU offense has only scored more than 20 points once. WSU has had two weeks to prepare for this game, which should help them to some degree. Take the points with WSU. (Rating +1) STANFORD 58 WSU 0

32. San Jose St (-16.5) at Idaho: SJS is coming off a disappointing loss at home verse Boise State. There is still likely some lingering effect from that loss as there was such high expectations that they could win that game. Idaho’s defense is very weak and untalented, they give up almost 500 yards per contest and over 40 points. Idaho’s offense will face a difficult task by facing a very strong defense. I just don’t see Idaho having the ability to get it going on the offensive side of the ball and their defense likely won’t be able to stop SJS. I don’t see this being a complete blowout, but SJS should cover. Lay the points with SJS. (Rating +1) SJS 30 IDAHO 24

33. Florida International at Louisiana-Lafayette (-7): ULL’s rushing game has been sick averaging over 300 yards per contest. That should pose some difficulties for FIU’s defense who gives up almost 150 rushing yards per contest. ULL has played more effectively at home than on the road, specifically their defense has given up almost a touchdown less per game at home. FIU is average at best and ULL should take advantage of the several weaknesses in FIU’s attack. Lay the points with ULL. (Rating +2) LL 49 FIU 20

34. BYU at Colorado St (+14.5): BYU is coming off its first loss and there may be some lingering effects. CSU has actually played pretty well at home averaging 24 points and over 250 yards of passing offense. Their defense at home has been much better giving up almost 10 points less, while BYU’s defense on the road has not been as good giving almost a touchdown more on the road. CSU will have to avoid turnovers and take care of the ball, but they should be able to keep this one pretty close. Take the points with the home-dog. (Rating +3). BYU 45 CSU 42

35. Washington at USC(-44) : The stats here are obviously one-sided. USC dominates in every category by over 100 yards. Wash has had a tough week with their coach announcing that he will be stepping down at the end of the year. The only real question is whether it will be a complete blowout or not. USC has tendency to play at the level of their competition, but this game is at home so that should make some difference. I am going to reluctantly say lay the points with USC, but don’t be surprised if Washington scores a couple times and USC wins something like 44-17. (Rating +1). USC 56 WU 0

36. Boise St. (-20.5) at New Mexico State: BSU continues to roll along dominating teams in the WAC. NMSt has a great passing attack passing for over 300 yards per contest, but their running game goes for less than 100 per contest, which is not a good sign. Their one dimensional attack will allow BSU to drop more players into coverage and likely cause some turnovers. NMSt throws almost two interceptions per game against a fast tough Boise St defense. This is pretty big spread, but I just see Boise St’s defense being the difference. Note NMS lost at home to San Jose St 31-14, the same team BSU just solidly beat last weekend. Lay the points with BSU. (Rating +2). BSU 49 NMS 0

37. Louisville (-13.5) at Syracuse: This game pretty much comes down to whether or not there will be some effect leftover from UL’s big upset over South Florida. Syracuse has been miserable in every statistical category and surprisingly have even been worse at home. UL should take advantage, control the ball, cause turnovers and dominate this game. Don’t be real surprised if Syracuse scores late to get a cover, but with UL solid defense they should control this game from start to finish. (Rating +2). SY 28 UL 21

38. Troy (-10) at UL-Monroe: I don’t like picking against home-dogs, but unless something crazy happens (which is always possible Marshall beating Houston for example)  I just don’t ULM being able to keep this game close. Their defense is simply terrible giving up almost 450 yards per game. Their rushing defense also struggles giving up over 200 yards per contest. Troy has a solid defense that has succeeded in causing several turnovers and setting up their offense nicely. Lay the points with Troy as the road chalk. (Rating +3) ULM 31 TROY 30

39. Tennessee (+6) at South Carolina: UT has disappointed its backers terribly this year. They are 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS. They are coming off a loss against Alabama. On the other hand, SC has not been very impressive either. This should be a very low scoring affair as the defenses are much better than the offenses. If UT can score, which may be a big if, their defense should help keep them in the game. Take the points with Tennessee. (Rating +1) SC 27 UT 6

40. Tulane (+25) at LSU: LSU catches a break here as Tulane’s top rusher will be out and not able to tack advantage of the poor rush defense of LSU. Tulane’s loss of their top rusher will make it very difficult for their offense as they have relied heavily on their rushing attack. Tulane’s defense has been average giving up just over 20 points per. Tulane has not played as well on the road only averaging 13.5 points per game. I think this is a big spread, but even without their top rusher Tulane should keep this game relatively close. LSU is not the same team we are use to seeing, therefore I just don’t see them completely blowing out Tulane. Take the points with Tulane. (Rating +2) LSU 35 TUL 10 

41. TCU (-14) at UNLV: TCU is coming off the big win over BYU and their only loss has come on the road at Oklahoma, pretty impressive. TCU’s defense is filthy allowing just over 200 yards of total offensive, (Passing 187, Rushing 30). UNLV on the other hand has a solid offense who averages almost 28 points per contest, but their defense is allowing over 30 points per contest. Be careful for a let down from TCU, but even that should not enough for UNLV to cover, they are just clearly over matched. Lay the points with another road favorite, but be careful as dogs always have the ability to sneak in a cover. (Rating +1) TCU 44 UNLV 14

42. Nebraska (+21.5) at Oklahoma: Oklahoma is coming off the blowout win over Kansas St. scoring 55 points in the first half. Neb is coming off two wins over Iowa State and Baylor and should stick around in this game. Oklahoma clearly has the better offense, but Neb.’s is no slouch either. Both teams put over 400 yards of offense and over 30 points. Neither defense has been impressive this year each allowing more than 20 points and over 300 yards of total offense. This game should be a high scoring affair. Take the points with Nebraska. (Rating +3) OK 62 NEB 28 

43. UAB (+9) at Southern Mississippi: UAB is coming off a bye week and should be well prepared to compete in this game. UAB has definetly not been as good on the road as they have been at home. However, these two teams have matched up quite well over their last three: averaging almost 24 points per. The defenses have been awful giving up almost 35 points a piece. I would take the points in this affair as UAB should keep it close if not win outright. (Rating +3) SMU 70 UAB 14 

44. Rice at UTEP (+2.5): Rice’s offense has definetly been explosive putting up big numbers. However, the key to this may be the poor performance of Rice’s defense on the road. Giving up over 40 points per contest on the road. UTEP is coming off a bye week and should definetly be ready for Rice. Rice is playing the second consecutive road game. Comparing the teams UTEP has put up better offensive and defensive numbers than Rice has on the road. UTEP should win this game outright, but take the couple points. (Rating +4) RICE 49 UTEP 44

45. Utah at New Mexico (+7.5): NM will have their hands full with this talented and tough Utah team. However, NM has been very solid at home. Their defense has been better at home and their offense is scoring almost a TD more. I think Vegas has hinted their hand a little here by putting this spread at this level. If Utah was as good as “experts” say then it should be a little higher. Take the points here and be on alert for a big upset. (Rating +4). UTAH 13 NM 10

46. Arizona St at Oregon State (-15.5): ASU is coming off a blowout loss at home verse Oregon and now has to go out on the road and play very good Oregon State team. OSU has been very good at home, remember the upset of USC. ASU has struggled mightly on the road and their stats just don’t match-up with this OSU team. OSU is playing great defense at home and their offense is scoring over 45 points on their home turf. Lay the points with OSU. (Rating +2) OSU 27 ASU 25 

Sunday

47. East Carolina at Central Florida (+3.5) CFU has been close in many games, but simply hasn’t been able to come through with the big plays at the right time. ECU dominates statistically, but has not been as good on the road, or since their big start to the year. ECU is 0-3 ATS on the road while CFU is 1-0-1 at home ATS. I think this game should be close throughout and maybe they can pull off a small upset here. Take the points with CFU. (Rating +1)

***There you go, every game on tap for the weekend. Hopefully I gave you some decent insight for the games. Hopefully we will see a big profit for the weekend. I will only consider the weekend a success if I am 15-20 units ahead. Good Luck.



18 Responses to PHILLIPS’ WEEK 10: A RUN DOWN OF EVERY GAME ON TAP:

  1. Chris Hines

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 12:02 am

    Others coming out later this week?

  2. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 8:44 am

    Yes. I am trying to have all the games posted by Thursday or Friday.

  3. Chris Hines

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 8:56 am

    I have been reading a few other sites and forums and they are saying to load up on Texas while the line is low. A lot of people threw big $ on it right when it opened at -5…I just went to my sportsbook online, and the line was up to -6 already. People are predicting that it will be -9 or -10 by kickoff. I usually bet anywhere between $15-$40 game…I put down $100 on Texas -6.

    What do you think?

  4. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 9:47 am

    I put up my analysis of Texas. I do like Texas, but I think the game should be closer than many expect unless Texas’s defense causes several turnovers. I would make a play on Texas, I usually wager between $75-$125 per game, so I would say my confidence would have me put about $100 on the game.

  5. Chris Hines

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 9:55 am

    So you never give 5 ratings? I’m assuming +1 = 75 then and +4 = 125?

  6. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 9:59 am

    I will give a 5 rating if it is something that deserves a 5 rating, but they simply don’t come along very often. If I really like a game I would go as high as $400. I was just giving you a usual betting day for me. If I give a rating of 4 or 5 I really like it and may put any amount of money on it.

  7. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 11:00 am

    I better put this out before the games start tonight, but if I go perfect for the entire week, I am going to have to start charging. Just to let everyone know, so don’t say I didn’t warn you.

  8. Chris Hines

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 9:57 pm

    Well, since I’m such a loyal reader I’m sure I’ll get the Phillips discount right?!?! HAHA

  9. Chris Hines

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 9:58 pm

    Looks like I’m safe for another week with the HUGE upset against Houston!!

  10. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 28, 2008 at 10:08 pm

    Yea you are safe for another week! But if someone would have told me before the game that Marshall was going to come out with Green helmets I would have went with Marshall. I need more insider information. HA

  11. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 29, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    UPDATE:
    1. North Texas had 15 players test positive for drugs, no suspensions announced but keep a watch on that as any suspensions could hurt NT badly.
    2. The money is going down on TexTexas as they are down to +4 underdog. I still like Texas, but as I said it might be closer than Texas supporters think.

  12. John

    Date: Oct 30, 2008 at 12:12 am

    i would like to question the NW over minnesota pick, sutton is out , cj bacher may be injured and i have followed the wildcats, and they turn the ball over like crazy… minnesota is undefeated at home, and their defense has really played well lately….. i am taking minn -6

  13. John

    Date: Oct 30, 2008 at 12:16 am

    however props on the csu +14.5 and arkst +24…. i think those will payoff

  14. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 30, 2008 at 8:02 am

    John you may be right about that NW game, I just am not confident that Minn is that good and I think NW might be overall talented enough to keep the game close.

  15. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 30, 2008 at 9:43 am

    This morning I checked covers.com to see what their “experts” thought of the South Florida/Cincinnati game tonight. Their “experts” picked S.Fla unanimously, 13-0. Now I don’t always agree with these guys, but the fact that the overwhelmingly agree seems to suggest that S. Fla is a pretty solid pick. I rated it as a +4 when I posted it.

  16. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Oct 30, 2008 at 6:15 pm

    Someone explain this: 84% of the money tonight went down on S.Florida, but the line did not change. Why would the line not change when all the money was going down os USF? Anyone have any ideas?

  17. Ty

    Date: Nov 04, 2008 at 12:32 pm

    I haven’t taken the time to tally up your score. How did you do?

  18. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Nov 04, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    It was around -10, so not well enough. Picking against some of the home-dogs really hurt me. But it was a good experience, but I won’t be analyzing every game again, except for when the bowl season rolls around.

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