Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans MNF Pick

I’m not hugely in favor of either team in this game. The Texans are favored by 3 at home and the over/under is 48. The experts at Covers.com are split down the middle on this one and 75% favor the under. I actually like the over seeing as how the last game between these two teams was a Jacksonville win 30-27 in Jacksonville. Their games in 2007 were also high scoring, averaging 62 points in those two last year. Houston’s last 5 games hit the over and 3/4 of the Jaguars last 4 games have hit the over. I think the over is the play tonight.

As far as which team comes out on top, neither team may be worth betting on as they’re both 4-7 and hungry for a win. You can count on Houston giving up points. Houston is 29th in points allowed per game, giving up nearly 27 per game. They’re also ranked 23rd against the run, which is where Jacksonville thrives. Jacksonville is pretty average on both sides of the ball and Houston can score in bunches as well.

I expect a tight, entertaining game throughout. I say that both teams break 24, so I like the over. Jacksonville CB Mathis is questionable for the Jags, so that Houston passing game will have a lot of success if he’s out. Not too many significant injuries on Houston’s front. This one is still a toss up to me.

I may go with a teaser like Jacksonville +10, over 41. I may also parlay the over 48 with either team, I can’t decide who I like more in this one. Both teams have lost their last 3 of 4, so I’m not confident in either one.

I think I’ll take the points with the over 41, which should easily be hit.

TONIGHT’S BET: 1-unit 7-point teaser, Jacksonville Jaguars +10, Over 41.