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NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 5th, 2008 | 8 Comments

My impressions from the early week (Jets and Patriots) are the top 2 picks on the Covers.com consensus, each getting at least 80% of the action. I also like the Bears and Titans.

My plays for this week are 9 units on Patriots -3 over Seahawks (to win 6 units, I moved the spread from -4.5 to -3 to make it safer), 4 units on Jets -4 over 49ers, 3 units on Bears -6.5 over Jaguars, and 2 units on the Vikings -10 over the Lions.

Note: The Patriots line moved from -4.5 to -7.  That’s a ridiculous move.  The betting public loves the Pats and I love that I have them locked in at only -3.

I was thinking of going with a 6-team teaser, but I’ll test my chances with this 6-team parlay: Bears -6.5, Falcons/Saints over 51.5, Jets -4, Patriots -4.5, Titans -14, and Packers -5.5. The parlay pays 50:1. I know it’s a longshot (clearly reflected by the odds), but it’s a solid card on paper.

As always, the NFL has been crazy. Use your own judgment. Good luck this week.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -4.5 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

11/11 experts and 84% of the consensus at covers.com likes the Pats and so do I. The Pats are scoring and the Seahakws are allowing 24 PPG for their respective home/away stats. New England is allowing 21 on the road and the Seahawks are scoring 21 at home. Let’s see if the Patriots win this one 24-21. The Seahawks have lost 5 straight, Hasselbeck is completing only 52% of his passes, and he has a 2:1 INT/TD ratio. I have to trust ’em at covers.com, especially after the Seahawks embarrassment against the Cowboys last week. The Seahawks only two wins this season were against the Rams and the 49ers, so I’m pretty confident that the Pats will dominate this game. The Seahawks have the 26th ranked defense and offense and are allowing over 380 YPG. I’m putting 9 units on the Patriots at -3 (so I don’t need the extra score) to win 6 units. The Patriots should be a very good play this week.

Injury Notes: Patriots LB Adalius Thomas is out for the season and DE Ty Warren is questionable. The Pats have signed Junior Seau to replace Thomas. No need to panic, the Seahawks are without their best defensive player DE Kerney and may be without one of the best OTs in the game (Walter Jones – Questionable) and LG Wahle is doubtful. Both those players are on the left of that offensive line, so that’s where the Patriots will be attacking from all game.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CHICAGO BEARS -6.5

I made the mistake of overestimating the Jags last week against the Texans. Their offense is in bad shape. They lost two of their offensive guards and their running game is feeling the effects. They’re not a team built to pass often, so they are struggling. The Bears can rush 4 and drop back into coverage all day. The Bears offense can get going at times. The Jags best defensive player CB Mathis just went on the IR, so that’s a huge blow for them. I think the Bears win this one by 14. The Bears average 27.4 PPG at home, but their defense is oddly allowing 27 PPG at home as well. With that, in addition to the Bears going 2-5 ATS in their last 7 (3-4), I’m a little hesitant to take them though. Jacksonville is 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 though. Bears should be a good play against an offense that can’t do anything and a defense without their best corner. I’ll put 3 units on the Bears.

NEW YORK JETS -4 @ SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS

The Jets were disappointing last week, but have won 5-straight games before that. The 49ers are becoming better, but I think they’re outmatched against the Jets. The Jets run D is only allowing 80 yards on the road, so I don’t expect Frank Gore to be a huge factor. However, the Jets pass defense can be suspect. They give up over 240 yards through the air on the road and allow 23 PPG on the road. 8/9 experts at covers.com like the Jets and 79% of the consensus likes them too. I loved this game at first, but became a bit worried about that pass defense of the Jets, but this is the 49ers! Jets are 7-2 ATS on the road in their last 9 and the 49ers are 3-7 ATS against a team with a winning record in their last 10. I’ll put 4 units on the Jets.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS -10 @ DETROIT LIONS

Have you seen the Lions run defense? Yeah. I’ll take the Vikings.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -13.5

Chances are the Bengals don’t score very much and are limited to 13 points or less. That means the Colts must get 27 points to cover comfortably. Last week was ugly for the Colts and they haven’t been an offensive juggernaut at all this season, but they’re certainly capable of going off against a bad defense like the Bengals. I say the Colts win 27-13 or 24-10, but I’m not feeling a Colts blowout to lay the points. The Colts are only averaging 23 PPG at home. That doesn’t really whoo me.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS -5.5

If the Packers can hang with the Panthers and dominate the Bears at home, I like their chances against the Texans. The Texans offense can put some pressure on the Packers defense, but the Packers offense has been outstanding at home. Houston is 1-5 on the road, so I like the Packers in this one. Green Bay is averaging 27 at home, Houston averages 20 on the road. Houston allows 27 on the road, Green Bay allows 20 at home. Let’s see if this one ends Packers 27 – Houston 20.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ TENNESSEE TITANS -14

If you haven’t heard, the Browns have lost both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, which means Ken Dorsy is being thrown to the wolves. The Titans should shut down the Browns offense and that 26th run defense of the Browns should be ran over. I like the Titans to win big, but hate high spreads. I would definitely throw the Titans -7 into any teaser. At home, with extra rest. I expect Titans 34 – Browns 6.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS -5

The Ravens came through for me huge last week and I like them again this week. Their defense has been ridiculous and Joe Flacco is coming along as a QB. The Redskins are capable of the upset, but I like the Ravens at home. The Ravens injury list does have me worried though. McAllister is on the IR, Samari Rolle is questionable, Ed Reed is questionable, and Derek Mason is questionable. Check on these players before taking the Ravens.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS -7

The line moved from Eagles +9 to Eagles +7, so that tells you what the betting public thinks. Plaxico or not, the Giants keep rolling though. As an Eagles fan, I can only hope for the best.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3

I like the over 51.5 even though it’s a lot of point. I say the score is at least 31-24. You would need 7 TDs and a FG to cover the 51.5 and these teams are capable of putting up those kind of numbers. The over is 8-2 in Atlanta’s last 10 on turf and over is 9-1-1 in New Orleans last 11 home games. Atlanta owned the Saints the last time they played in Atlanta 34-20. I love the way the Falcons are playing, but the Saints offense is ridiculous and 4-1 at home. Saints are scoring 31 at home, Falcons are scoring 20 on the road. Saints defense gives up only 20 at home, Falcons defense give up only 20 on the road. Both teams should easily get 300 yards of offense. I expect a lot of offense, so I’ll take the over. I can see a Falcons upset, but I think the Saints win this one at home.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS (IN TORONTO)

This is a pick ’em game and it should be. These teams’ stats are nearly identical. I have a bit more faith in the Dolphins than the Bills, but neither team has a clear edge. This one is a toss up.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS -9

The Chiefs are very bad, but I never bet on the Broncos because they’ve screwed me one too many times. They’re 4-7-1 ATS for a very good reason. I say Broncos roll over the Chiefs, but they’re just a crappy team to bet on in general.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS -14

We all know the Cardinals will get at least 28-31 points this game, but how many points are the Rams due for? Conventional wisdom says not too much, especially not more than 14, but the Cardinals are allowing 26 PPG, which is a bit alarming with a high spread like this. 5/7 experts and 78% of the covers.com consensus say the Rams will cover. I think taking the points is the way to go, but I can’t get myself to do it.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3

You’re better off flipping a coin if you want to pick this one.



8 Responses to NFL Week 14 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread:

  1. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 06, 2008 at 2:29 am

    I really like Green Bay. They are now healthy are starting to play really well again. Texans coming off a big home win on Monday night football, but they are going to be playing in the freezing cold and I just don’t think they will be the same team as they were on Monday.

  2. Brandon Phillips

    Date: Dec 06, 2008 at 7:20 pm

    2 Team 7-point Teaser:

    1. Houston at Green Bay (+2.5)
    2. Philly at NY (+0.5)

    To me it looks like a very solid bet. What do you think?

  3. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 06, 2008 at 7:24 pm

    Never bet against Philly! A lot of people have this game on upset alert and I even have Giants fans telling me that their team should lose a game before the playoffs so it’s “off their back” and then they could refocus. Don’t be shocked in the G-Men lose although they should win. Maybe take Eagles +14 or pick another game: Titans -7, Bears (PK), Patriots +2, or Jets +3. I like the Packers to win comfortably. And if you want to play that card, why not just parlay the moneylines? It’s probably better odds than doing a teaser. There’s no point in getting 2.5 and 0.5 points.

  4. Brian

    Date: Dec 07, 2008 at 1:45 am

    You cant pick the eagles agianst the giants. The giants have been picking up more and more speed since their one loss. they have proven they can win without their star reciever burress. the giants have depth to step up. frankly mcnabb can play great or awful. a giants team that will have a field day of the eagles. i think the spread wont even be close. as much as i want the eagles to win its not going to happen

  5. Vegas Martin

    Date: Dec 07, 2008 at 9:06 am

    Brian, I’m obviously bias as an Eagles fan. I agree with you. The thing with McNabb… when he was playing awful (CIN, BAL), his wife was pregnant with twins and her health was in jeopardy. That was clearly weighing on his mind and she successfully delivered two healthy babies, so that must be a relief for McNabb. The Eagles only lost by 5 to the Giants the last time they played. They may not win this one, but you know they’re not going to lay down.

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