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NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on December 19th, 2008 | Comment »

After taking a few hits week 15, the DAL/NYG under on Monday Night and Indianapolis on Thursday Night got things going back in the right direction.  I took the Colts moneyline to be safe, and for those who laid the points, you can thank CB #31 for the cover due to a pick 6.  The game was absolutely crazy, check out the highlights.  The game had you sweating once the Jaguars took the 14-0 lead, but Manning was able to pull through.

On to the NFL Week 16 games…

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ DALLAS COWBOYS -4

I don’t see how you can bet against the Ravens even though I’ll pick the Cowboys to cover since it’s in Dallas.  I’m hoping for a Ravens W so the Eagles can jump the Cowboys in the standings.  If Romo throws a few picks, which he’s always capable of against a defense like the Ravens, which he did against the Steelers, the Ravens have a shot at taking this one.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2 @ TENNESSEE TITANS

I like the Steelers in this one and I think they are one of the top teams to take this week, especially with the low spread.  Their defense should hold the Titans to very few points.  Although Tennessee is 12-2, they were pretty unimpressive against the Texans last week.  Unless their running game gets going, they aren’t a very good team.  With the Steelers tough run D, I expect the Titans offense to struggle.  The Steelers have allowed only 10.4 PPG in their last 5 games.  The Titans have lost their top defensive player DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, another key player, is day-to-day.  Steelers win this one 20-13.

MIAMI DOLPHINS -3.5 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

I don’t know how they keep doing it, but the Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 and they’ve burned me twice.  I’m not betting on the Dolphins against the Chiefs on the road, but I can’t get myself to take the Chiefs either.  This is going to be a weird game and crazy things should happen.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -7.5

The Pats should win this one, but with the way the Cardinals offense can score, they should keep this within a TD.  This may be a good spot to take the points although I think the Pats win by 3-7 points.  You also have to factor in the fact that the Cardinals already have a 3 or 4 seed on lock and can’t really improve their playoff status and the Pats are still fighting for the playoffs.  The Cardinals may not give you a 100% effort, which may lead to the Pats winning and covering quite comfortably.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS -3

Ugly vs. Uglier, but nobody knows who Uglier is yet.  We should know after this one.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -5 @ WASHINGTON RESKINS

You can argue that the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now along with the Panthers, Steelers, and Colts.  The Eagles defense is playing outstanding and the Redskins are imploding.  The Eagles will be much more motivated as it’s win or go home for them and the Redskins are already out.  The Eagles have won and covered three in a row, the Redskins are 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS) in their last 6.  The Redskins have averaged 10.0 PPG in their last 3 and only managed only 13 against the Bengals last week.  I really want to take the Eagles this week, but what do they say about betting on your own team?  Don’t do it.  I might have to do it though.  This one is too good to pass up.

SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS -5.5 @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The 49ers have gotten their shit together in the last 3 games (2-1, covering 3 straight, and beating the Jets).  Their defense is playing much better, but the offense is still lacking.  You can count on the Rams struggles to continue on both sides of the ball.  Rams are only averaging 14 in their last 3, while allowing 24.  49ers are averaging 14 in their last 3, but allowing only 10.  I like the 49ers in this one, but there are better games to take.

Injury Update: Frank Gore is out.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3

I’m the biggest Vikings and Chargers fan this Sunday.  If either win, the Eagles control their own destiny.  Either the Falcons or Bucs need to lose this week if the Eagles want to sneak into the playoffs because they have the Rams and Raiders the following week and those should be automatic wins.  I like Vikings -3, but it may just be wishful thinking.  The Falcons are about as hot as any team in the NFL, but the Vikings haven’t been too shabby either and will be at home.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -7 @ DETROIT LIONS

The Lions gave the Colts a game last week.  They were tied at 21 going into the 4th quarter.  Can they go 0-16?  They have to win sometime, right?  They can’t go 0-16.  They have to be hungry for a win.  The Lions are a surprising 6-8 ATS.  They’ve burned me a few times this year (against the Panthers and Vikings to name 2).  I’ll pass on the Saints.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS -3

The Giants haven’t been the same team since the Plax incident.  They’ve lost to the Eagles and then the Cowboys.  Panthers have averaged 34 in their last 3 and the Giants have averaged only 15.  The Giants defense has only allowed 15 PPG in their last 3 though.  I think the Panthers win this one outright, so the +150 moneyline looks enticing, but they are 3-3 on the road this year and taking the +3 won’t hurt.  Eli is notorious for playing poorly in the cold.

NEW YORK JETS -4 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

I took the Jets twice when they’ve played out west against weak teams (OAK and SF) and they lost both.  That’s two good reasons to avoid taking them this weak against the Seahawks.  They also got killed by the Chargers earlier in the season in San Diego.  They clearly have shown that they struggle out west.

HOUSTON TEXANS -7 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Texans are a team that has really impressed me lately.  They’ve covered 5-straight games and have won 4 in a row.  The Raiders haven’t covered in 3 straight. Ride the streak, take the Texans.  The 2-5 road record does worry be a bit, but they won in Green Bay two weeks ago and that’s the toughest place for a poor road team to play in December and they pulled it off.

BUFFALO BILLS @ DENVER BRONCOS -6.5

I think the Broncos cover, but I will never bet on them as they are the most inconsistent team in the history of ever.  With the run defense being the Achilles heel for the Broncos, I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Marshawn Lynch dominates the Broncos.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3.5

As I mentioned before, I need the Chargers to pull this one off to give the Eagles some help in the NFC.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS -4

Preview coming Monday Night.

THE BOTTOM LINE:

My top games this week are (in no particular order): Steelers -2 over Titans, Eagles -5 over Redskins, Texans -7 over Raiders, and Panthers +3 over Giants.

Good luck this week and let me know what you think.



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