TCU vs. Boise State Pick Against the Spread

Sorry I haven’t posted in a while guys, I was in Vegas. Had a pretty successful trip as I hit a video poker machine with 4 Aces and a kicker which paid $2000. Anyways it is back to reality and we have a bunch of bowl games to analyze.

TCU v. Boise State (+3):

Without a doubt the public is all over TCU, with 57% of the money on the spread going on TCU. I just don’t understand why. TCU has the better defense, but I just don’t believe they are that different: TCU’s D only allows 166 passing yards and under 50 yards rushing. However BSU’s D allows 189 passing and 105 rushing, which is also rock solid. Both of TCU’s losses have come on the road against Oklahoma and Utah. The key for me here is that Oklahoma loss. BSU’s offense is very similar to Oklahoma and I believe BSU will exploit TCU’s weakness in the secondary. I think BSU’s can beat them deep and score at will. I am calling it now, BSU in a route. I have already played this game on the money line. So take the points if you feel the need, but I just see BSU playing an overall better game and with a chip on their shoulder after getting snubbed from a major bowl game.

The Play: Boise State moneyline (+130)