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NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Posted by in NFL Picks on September 30th, 2009 | Comment »

What’s up my peeps.  Before I get into every NFL game (if I’m not lazy enough to do it considering I have 2 great picks for you this week), I wanted to give you some initial thoughts at some spreads that jumped out at me.

I hope you got this week off to the right start with Brandon’s Louisiana Tech pick.  They rolled over Hawaii in the second half for the 27-6 win to cover the 4.5 points.  Nice pick B.

If you are new to THE PASS RUSH.  This is how this works, Vegas Martin gives you the run down on the NFL and Brandon Phillips fills you in on the college spreads since that’s what he does, he picks college winners.  We also have the site mobile enabled, so you can check our picks from your iPhone or Blackberry.  How amazing are we?  More amazing than DeSean Jackson this season if I might say so.

Disclaimer: If you take our picks just because we do, a crackhead may break into your home, smack you upside the head, and you may lose money.  Do your OWN DUE DILIGENCE.

On a lighter note, last week we found some solid winners with easy picks of the Saints over the Bills and Ravens over the Browns.  That’s what we’re looking for again.

Matchups that jump out to me are the Giants -9 over the Chiefs, Redskins -7 over the Bucs, Bengals -5.5 over the Browns, Bears -10 over the Lions, 49ers -9.5 over the Rams.

So this is how it works.  We think of the 5 worst teams in the NFL and start with those spreads.  Seems like the right strategy, right?  Why waste time putting money on a Chargers/Steelers, Packers/Vikings, or Patriots/Ravens game?  It’s not worth the risk since those games are 50/50.  We’re in this for the easy money.

Clearly, the Browns, Lions, Chiefs, and Rams suck year-in and year-out, and for some reason, the Bucs are horrible this year too.  The Bucs can’t stop anyone on defense and it shows since their D is ranked 31st in the NFL.

I was looking at the stats and guess who has the best defense in terms of yards-per-game?  Shocker here, but it’s the Broncos.  They’ve also benefited from an easy schedule since they’ve faced the Bengals, Browns, and Raiders, so you really have to look into these numbers before relying on them too much.

So let’s narrow those spreads down…

I like the Giants to pummel the Chiefs “Eagles style”, but the Chief’s Dwayne Bowe will be back for the Chiefs to help them hang in that game, but I still don’t put much faith in the Chiefs.  Giants should roll over them.  Eli (I hate to say it) is looking legit.

Redskins should beat the Bucs, especially considering the Bucs are starting a rookie QB who nobody knows the name of yet, but I don’t want to bet on the Redskins just yet.  Their offense has been anemic and they couldn’t even beat the Lions or even score a single (1) TD against the Rams at home.  That is PATHETIC.  In fact, take this game off the list and add the Redskins to your list of teams that you should more often than not best against.

Bengals -5.5 over the Browns looks appealing.  The Browns are horrendous.  God is clearly not a Browns fan.  The Browns are easily the worst team in the NFL right now and they helped me pad my pocket twice courtesy of the Vikings and Ravens.  Bengals are coming off an impressive win against the Steelers, as well as another win on the road against the Packers, so I think this is a great spot to take the Bengals once again.

Bears -10 over the Lions.  This could be trap game.  You see the Lions on the road against a tough D like the Bears and you think they get killed, but the Bears rarely run the score up even on a weaker opponent like the Lions.  Calvin Johnson has the ability to go off at any moment.  With the high spread, I’ll stay away.  The Bears had trouble stopping Seneca Wallace last week.  That’s right, Seneca Wallace!  I’ll pass on this game with the high spread.  The Lions aren’t as bad as you might think.

49ers -9.5 over the Rams.  The 49ers are at home, so I don’t mind laying a lot of points to take the 49ers over the Rams.  The Rams are averaging 8 points-per-game — that’s a league worst and they give up over 400 yards a game.  What a perfect time for me to pick up Shaun Hill off waivers since my QBs McNabb and Hasselbeck BOTH broke their ribs — my kind of year.  Before taking this game, check the status of Frank Gore.  He may be out and if he is, I would stay away from this game.

So after looking at the games, which game is my favorite?  I got 2 of ’em!

Giants -9 over the CHIEFS

Bengals -5.5 over the BROWNS

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