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Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Pick Against the Spread

Posted by in College Football Picks on October 16th, 2009 | Comment »

Tomorrow is the Red River Rivalry, which means that Texas and Oklahoma gear up for their battle at high noon.  This is one of my favorite football games of the year.  There’s just something about this rivalry that gets me all geeked up.  At THE PASS RUSH, I like to explore these big college matchups to give new visitors a sneak peak at the free football betting services that we provide.  Let’s turn to the action.

NO. 3 TEXAS LONGHORNS (5-0, 2-0) -3 VS. NO. 20 OKLAHOMA SOONERS (3-2, 1-0)

Date: Saturday, October 17 — Noon (ABC)

First, the Red River Rivalry takes place on a neutral field.  It takes place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, so you don’t have to worry about how home-field will effect this game, although it’s more of a home game for Texas.

You also have to look into the Sooners record. You see 3-2 and may assume they’re a weaker team this year, but you have to look into that since Oklahoma could easily be 5-0 if Bradford didn’t get injured.  OU has faced two tough losses.  The first loss was in week one to a quality BYU team who beat them by a mere point, 14-13.  Their second loss of the season came from a stellar Miami team in another one-point loss, 21-20.

Sam Bradford was injured in the first week of the season and didn’t make a comeback until last week when he played outstanding, defeating Baylor 33-7.  How about these stats.  27/49, 389 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs.  Although he completed only 55% of his passes, those are quality numbers.  The Sooners running game is also legit, but Texas isn’t far behind.  Oklahoma ran for 203 yards on Baylor.

Texas hasn’t really been tested yet this season.  They’re 1-4 against the spread this year, but they’ve been given ridiculous spreads to cover: 41.5, 31.5 19.5, 36.5, and 33.5.  I wouldn’t expect them to cover such high numbers, but I’m just trying to make my point that Texas hasn’t been tested this year, so there’s a chance Texas comes out flat since they haven’t faced “true competition.”

My other concern is Colt McCoy.  For season reason, Texas has started very slow this season, but they end the game hot.  In most games, they’re tied 3-3 after the first quarter and you start thinking, what the hell is wrong with Texas, but they eventually get things going.  I think McCoy delivers a strong game, but the 10/6 TD/INT ratio is somewhat alarming to me.

Another star in this game to watch is Texas WR Jordan Shipley (YouTube highlights).  This guy is sick — he’s like a white DeSean Jackson — you have to see this kids highlights.  He’s had double-digit receptions in his last 3 games and has eclipsed 100 yards in 3 games already this season.  With 122 yards and 147 yards in his last two contests, Oklahoma better zero in on him since he’s Texas’s top weapon.  No big deal if he draws doubles since Texas’s two main backs, Vondrell McGee and Tre Newton are both averaging over 5.0 yards-per-carry.

Another matchup to watch is the Texas defensive line against Oklahoma’s offensive line.  Oklahoma lost a lot starters this past season and the Oklahoma O-line hasn’t been getting the job done of protecting Sam Bradford.  If Bradford gets time, he can hurt you.  Look for Texas’s Sergio Kindle and Sam Acho to try to get after Bradford early and often.  Texas has the 4th best defense in college football right now.

I took Texas the last two years and they’ve came through for me twice in a row now.  They won last year 45-35 and were given 7 points.  That would have been a nice moneyline payout, but I took the points to be safe.  The year before, Texas fell 28-21, but with the 12 points they were give, they covered.

7/11 experts at and 67% of the consensus likes Texas and so do I.  CBS also has all 6 of their experts taking Texas.  They’ve won for me twice in a row in this rivalry game and I think they make it 3.  They can’t give Bradford time in the pocket though.  They have to bring pressure and with a suspect Oklahoma offensive line, I think they could bring enough pressure to contain Bradford.

I’m not personally taking this game since I don’t want to bet against a good QB like Sam Bradford, but for the sake of picking this game, I say that Texas covers the 3.

Prediction: Texas 24 – Oklahoma 17

Free Pick: Texas -3 (Confidence: 2.5/5) (P)

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